Posted on 11/02/2014 5:52:07 PM PST by Jet Jaguar
PPP's final polls for Governor in Florida, Michigan, and Illinois find incredibly tight contests in all three states.
Florida is the closest. Rick Scott and Charlie Crist both have 44%, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie polling at 6%. PPP usually has a policy of not releasing poll results to the decimal, but when we find a tie on our final poll of the cycle somewhere we make an exception. Crist is at 44.0% to 43.8% for Scott- in terms of raw respondents to the poll that's 526 for Crist and 524 for Scott. Wyllie may be playing a spoiler role for Crist's hopes of defeating Scott- those saying they support Wyllie would prefer Crist to Scott by 25 points, 43/18. In a straight head to head contest Crist leads Scott 47/46.
Scott (41/48 approval rating) and Crist (40/47 favorability rating) are nearly identically unpopular. They've gone in very different directions over the course of this election cycle. Scott's net approval rating has improved by 17 points from the -24 spread at 33/57 that we found for him in January 2013. Crist's net favorability rating has declined by 18 points from the +11 spread at 49/38 that he began with at the start of last year. Crist may win yet but it's ended up being a much more competitive race than it looked like it might be at the beginning of the cycle.
The news down ballot is good for Republicans in Florida. Pam Bondi leads by 9 for Attorney General, Adam Putnam is up 11 for Agriculture Commissioner, and Jeff Atwater is up 14 for Chief Financial Officer. And although it has 53/41 support,the amendment to legalize medical marijuana looks like it will fall below the 60% mark it needs to pass.
In Michigan Rick Snyder is clinging to a 46/45 lead over Mark Schauer. Our polling in this race has been remarkably consistent since Labor Day. Snyder has led by 1 points, 2 points, 1 point, been tied, and now he leads by 1 point on our final poll. Supporters of the third party candidates and leaners prefer Schauer over Snyder by 12 points though, so in a straight head to head contest they are tied at 47. After being under water for most of the election cycle on his approval, Snyder's final numbers come in at 46% approve and 45% disapprove, mirroring his one point lead.
Gary Peters looks to be headed for a double digit victory in the Michigan Senate race, leading Terri Lynn Land 51/38 in the full field and 54/41 head to head. Much of the coverage of this campaign has focused on Land being a poor candidate, and she is. Just 35% of voters see her favorably to 50% who have an unfavorable opinion. But Peters has proven to be a pretty strong candidate in his own right, with a +14 net favorability rating at 46/32. That's a lot better than most Senate hopefuls in the country can boast this year.
Republicans lead the other down ballot races in Michigan. Bill Schuette has a 47/37 advantage for Attorney General and Ruth Johnson is up 46/38 for Secretary of State.
Pat Quinn is one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 31% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 54% who disapprove. But he's still clinging to a slight lead for reelection over Republican challenger Bruce Rauner, 47/45. Only 58% of Democrats approve of the job Quinn is doing, but 83% are nevertheless voting for him. Rauner is under water on his favorability but still in much better standing than Quinn, at 39/42. This is a race where the Libertarian candidate could play spoiler for GOP hopes. Chad Grimm is only polling at 3%, but those voting for him say they would pick Rauner over Quinn 54/14. In a head to head without him Quinn and Rauner would be tied at 48.
In the Illinois Senate race Dick Durbin leads Jim Oberweis 51/41. Durbin is narrowly popular with a 44/41 approval spread, while Oberweis is narrowly unpopular with 32% of voters seeing him favorably to 37% who have an unfavorable opinion.
Full results for Florida here, for Michigan here, for Illinois here, and the full release for this trio of polls here
On the last poll I answered about a week ago I changed sexes and lost about twenty five years of my life. I am pretty sure I answer it accurately.
No worries. If he flubs it, he’s done for.
You really have to wonder why Bruce Rauner is running in Illinois. What if he wins? Seriously, what can he do (although I believe in IL the governor has a line-item veto). Either he genuinely has a sense of civic duty or he is on a suicide mission, having to deal with the Machine members who will be on him every day like a bad rash.
I just saw what you wrote. I should have known, too good to be true.
>> the part about Mark Smith. Is he registered as a “write in candidate”, a necessity by Illinois law. <<
Yes. I checked with the Cook County Board of Elections and the following people filed papers to run as write-in candidates for Governor:
Robert “Chico” Perez, Jr.
Michael W. Scruggs
Mark Smith
Scott Summers
Ryan Sweeney & Aaron Merreighn
http://www.cookcountyclerk.com/elections/2014elections/Pages/Writeincandidates.aspx
Perez and Smith are pro-life. I think Summers is the Green who failed to get on the ballot for Governor.
Easy ain’t in the cards....
When you lose every battle you damn well will lose the war. Idiots!
Everybody in the state, and I mean everybody, knows exactly what a chameleon and career politician Crist is. Everybody is perfectly aware of the fact that Crist is phony and has absolutely no core values.
Crist doesn't beat Rick Scott without massive fraud.
Weird how all the Democrats in Florida are so excited to have a choice of two Republicans as Governor. They would not have voted for him in a second 3-years ago. Republicans are the winner in the Florida Governor’s race.
It's interesting to see Rauner is running pretty far behind where Brady was four years ago, even though Quinn is even LESS popular since then. The reasons are almost certainly because Rauner hasn't united the GOP base around his candidacy like Brady did, and Rauner is a slimy, shadowy elitist figure that doesn't inspire voters. Of course, the "Brady lost because he was too right-wing, only RINOs can WIN a MODERATE state like Illinois!!!" crowd will ignore those numbers.
I'm still seeing far more Rauner signs than Quinn signs (probably 5 to 1), but four years ago it was more like 20 to 1 in terms of Brady vs. Quinn signs, because Quinn supporters were invisible before election day. I didn't even see Quinn signs in Chicago in 2010.
I've been cynical on the poll numbers since Quinn's bogus "victory" four years ago, so I still think Rauner will squeak by on election night by "miraculously" doing "better than expected" in the Crook County suburbs (translation: several Madigan Democrats were told to cross over and vote Rauner)
Conservatives are pretty much screwed either way. Rauner wins, and the "only RINOs can WIN!!!" crowd will rub it in our face (pointing to Oberweis' "scary" conservative views as why he lost) and we'll get nothing but Topinka type candidates in the future, and Bloomberg II will take this state down under "Republican" combine rule. Rauner loses, and of course it will be fault of the conservative "purists" who vote for Grimm, and the idiotic GOP establishment will probably conclude Rauner wasn't liberal ENOUGH and try to run a Neel Kashkari clone next time around who loves Obama and gay marriage.
It will be interesting if I'm wrong about Rauner's chances. It would be hilarious to see this liberal douchebag lose to Chicago machine vote fraud (though I doubt it will happen since Rauner is on the combine's good graces). If he did, I'd just shrug my shoulders and tell the Raunerbots "Well sorry, Rauner was just a terrible candidate who just didn't work hard enough in the suburbs and he alienated the moderate suburban moms we need to win.".
You reap what you sow. Ah, karma's a b----.
When the race is close it is a prime candidate for an “Al Franken Style” election theft.
And that’s the same scam Al Gore tried to pull in Florida after the election in 2000 - one of the few times democrats have failed with that technique.
The GOP wins when it unites economic conservatives, foreign policy conservatives and social conservatives against the statists. For some reason, there’s a faction that seems to think they can get that stool to stand with only two legs - we’ll see.
In any case, all Rauner had to do is show some consideration for the social conservatives - supporting a “born-alive” abortion survivors bill of the sort that Obozo buried four times would probably have been enough. Instead, he had to prove he could win without them - well, again, we’ll see.
Exacerbating the stupidity of Rauner’s strategy is the suspicion that Rauner is just a North Shore squish, the kind of pseudo-Republican that turns into a Bloomberg-style nuisance. Those social conservatives who might be tempted to hold their nose and vote for him (myself included) can’t help but be suspicious that some operator who bought the primary, who (along with his wife) has supported Planned Parenthood and the ACLU Reproductive Rights Project, and who has backed the likes of Rahm and Randell (in Philly) is unlikely to do much if anything of real consequence against Madigan and the Combine, except provide a target with a GOP label on it when the whole house of cards known as Illinois goes all Detroit on us.
I haven’t seen a single Quinn sign in my area this year, 4 years ago I did. They may be putting some up as we speak, a few usually pop up around the polling place right before the election.
I don’t know, it seems to me that the proverbial “they” prefer to keep to Quinn, the late union surge in the primary on behalf of Dillard (a social conservative ostensibly to Rauner’s right, despite being a combine douchebag) was the first sign that maybe Rauner wasn’t the combine’s #1 boy. He is a liberal though.
Quinn is the 2nd worst Governor in State History however, after the commie Altgeld (Honestly, I miss Blago! Free Blago!), so I hope he loses and that Rauner isn’t a disaster like George Ryan and Ahnold. I predicted a Rauner win over on Dave Leip’s Atlas, but I have zero confidence in that outcome and zero confidence that Rauner won’t be a disaster if he does win.
http://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2014/pred.php?action=indpred&id=2005
I have Michigan lean Republican despite the closeness of the polls. I just can’t see that asstard Schauer winning, that race shouldn’t be close, motherclucking union scum. Maybe Terri Lynn Land is dragging Snyder down.
Florida, the so called “crown jewel”, very important to keep that traitorous faggot out.
Alaska, very important to stop the ILLEGAL fusion ticket of the ex-RINO and the rat that is supported by the rats, unions, and few extremely misguided and ignorant freepers who need to wise up or shut up and go to DU where they belong.
Most important of all maybe is WISCONSIN.
In CT the conservative indie who was drawing 3 or 4 % has dropped out and endorsed the RINO Foley, but his name remains on the ballot. Might make the difference there.
Maryland is on surprise upset alert.
It’s important to note, they run candidates against good Republicans too, and have cost several of them victory.
I don’t think it’s as close as it looks in MI.
“In CT the conservative indie who was drawing 3 or 4 % has dropped out and endorsed the RINO Foley, but his name remains on the ballot”
Visconti dropping out will help Mal-loy, the DEM.
His votes were INDYs who dislike Foley and
DEMS who do not care for Malloy. But neither group will go to Foley now. Visconti’s votes go disproportionately to Malloy. which is why he got a 1 point lead with Visconti and a 3-pt lead in head to head.
I will be shocked if Maloy loses. He won by 7000 last time ... almost 30,000 this time.
CT Republicanism is a mental disorder.
GOP won’t pick up many seat in the legislature.
only possible GOP pick ups in CT
Treasurer Denise Nappier could lose.
state SEnate ... Stonington .... Maynard could lose. He has TBI and cannot campaign.
state Senate ... Bridgeport .... the “moderate” white DEM lost to a black DEM in a primary. She is vulnerable.
state house ... very small gains because of gerrymandering GOP cannot make significant gains in the House.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.