Posted on 11/01/2014 11:09:16 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans
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"There has been an aggravation of the situation and an increase in military activity in the Novoazovsk area over the last few days. There are casualties among marines and our fighters. I assume that the enemy will not attack Mariupol (it was very painful for the enemy last time), but rather, Berdiansk. This will cut off the Mariupol army group. We could have an encirclement worse than in Ilovaisk,” said letskyi.
Dmytro Tymchuk, head of the Information Resistance group, reports on his Facebook page that Russian-backed militants continue intensive artillery fire upon Ukrainian troops at the front positions and are sending more reconnaissance subversive groups in the direction of the Donetsk-Mariupol road. The Russian command has set the goal for its divisions and local gang formations to paralyze the road in the Mariupol direction, he said.
“Attempts to infiltrate the area west of Mariupol by the enemy’s reconnaissance and subversive groups to block the Novoazovsk–Odesa (E58) road are increasing. Ukrainian troops are taking active measures to find and neutralize these groups,” he said.
Russian-backed separatist seem to be testing the combat readiness of Ukrainian troops. The recent destruction of the Ukrainian checkpoint No. 32 was a “combat readiness test” undertaken by a new strike group consisting of Russian-backed terrorists and Russian mercenaries, according Tymchuk.
A “strike group” in the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), built upon the Phantom Mechanized Brigade (whose commander is Oleskiy Mozhovyi), consists of as many as 1,200 local militants and Russian mercenaries, 20 tanks, 40 armored combat vehicles and about 40 units of conventional and rocket artillery, according to Tymchuk. The group has received anti-tank grenade launchers, anti-tank guided weapons systems, MANPADs (air defense portable missiles) and mortars from Russia, he said.
Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov provided some interesting details on the Savik Shuster show broadcast on October 30. Nemtsov called the “elections’ in Donetsk and Luhansk a provocation and a serious violation of the Minsk agreements. He pointed out that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is brazenly lying when he says that these “elections” were foreseen in Minsk agreement. Representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) signed the Minsk Protocol, an agreement to halt the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine, on 5 September 2014.
In fact, according to paragraphs 3 and 9 of the Minsk agreement, elections are to be held in accordance with the laws of Ukraine.
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Pavlo Zhebrivskiy highlighted why Russia wants to hold these elections in the LNR and DNR as a guest on the Savik Shuster show broadcast on October 31. Zhebrivskiy was a candidate for deputy to the Ukrainian parliament from electoral district No. 63, Zhitomir Oblast, running on the Sobor platform. He serves as a volunteer in military intelligence for Ukraine’s Anti-Terrorist Operation near Debaltsevo, organising intelligence work in the territories not controlled by the Ukrainian army. Zhebrivskiy explained how the DNR and LNR “elections” are to be organized using Alchevsk as an example. Separatists are going to open five voting sites in Alchevsk, allowing voting from the age of 16. No law or act exists detailing how to conduct these elections, no list of voters is available, and voting through the Internet is allowed. People are likely to vote, he said, because separatists have threatened that people who do not come to vote will not receive social services or material assistance and have said that those not voting should got to territory under the control of Ukraine and try to get pensions and social security there. Given that only five voting stations will be opened, there will be long lines of those waiting to vote, creating excellent images for Russian TV channels.
Zhebrivskiy assumes that Putin’s goals are more far-reaching explained than legitimization of the LNR and DNR.. After these elections, an escalation of the conflict can be expected, and military operations will intensify. “Even today we see that shelling has considerably increased. Immediately after the election, the confrontation will be more severe because a key condition has not been met: control over the border. Without control over the border with Russia, cessation of hostilities is impossible.”
“We understand that these elections will bring nothing good, neither to people living in these occupied territories nor for the people of Ukraine as a whole. The issue is that military actions are becoming more dynamic. We are entering a very difficult path as winter begins. The conflict will escalate in the winter. We observe that locals are being replaced with regular Russian army servicemen. Five days ago, we received information that 80 military vehicles, both armored vehicles and trucks with servicemen and equipment, entered Krasny Luch, Luhansk Oblast. Today [October 31, 2014] we received information that 50 tanks arrived from Russia. It looks like a wide-scale offensive operation is in preparation.”
“We should not deceive ourselves. If Putin intended to comply with the Minsk agreement he would have done so. But he resorts to exacerbation of the situation and an escalation of military operations. We should be prepared to defend ourselves. We can beat Putin’s army in Ukraine. Our army is not what it was even one or two months ago. The Ukrainian army has more combat experience and is more battle ready to defend Ukraine together with the people of Ukraine. It will not be an easy ride for the Russian army in Ukraine if [Russians and Russian-backed separatists] start an offensive,” concluded Zhebrivskiy.
Predictions of a full-scale attack by the combined forces of the Russian Federation together with the LNR and DNR terrorist organizations in several directions have been made by InformNapalm team Timur Melik and military correspondent Roman Burko in their general summary for November 1, 2014. They have observed a mass rotation of personnel of militant groups, with local “militia” replaced by Russian servicemen. Local residents confirm the presence of many Russian servicemen in Donetsk. It is most likely that the Russian soldiers are replacing hard-to-control militants. The InformNapalm team and Roman Burko point to an increase of personnel and armored vehicles in Alchevsk, Bryanka, Perevalsk, Horlivka, Yenakijeve, and formation of reserves in Rovenky, Antratsyt, Snizhne, and Krasnyi Luch.
The pretext for a full-scale attack could come in the form of a powerful provocation, which could happen either during or shortly after the elections on November 2. It is likely that an attack will not come before November 4 or 5 because the terrorists will need to summarize the results of the elections in order to lend some legitimacy to their leaders. After that, the “legitimate” governments of the newly minted Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics could even declare war on Ukraine. In this case, the Minsk agreements would be void, and the Russian Federation could ally with the terrorists in the war. This scenario would give the LNR/DNR the opportunity to use tactical operational missile complexes.
Rumors among DNR supporters in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk support November 4 or 5 as highly probable for the start of a full-scale attack. These supporters say that the DNR is planning to return to their towns on these days. Directions of a possible offensive are shown in a map prepared by BurkoNews.info and InformNapalm Group.
Would it make sense for a fed-up EU to partition what’s left of Ukraine?
Ukraine would be wise to accommodate Ukraine and that is what they are doing after being raped daily by Russia for so long.
In order to stop this tragedy he needs something quicker, like Ebola.
Cancer, or really anything would be fine.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3219414/post
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Wrong URL or thread has been removed?
You’re right. Nothing is too quick to bring this evil nutjob to the next life.
Putin has a narrow window to take action as long as Obama is in the White House. If Hillary is the next president however, that window may remain open for quite some time.
Who in the EU will enforce it? The EU is Germany and France trying to jointly rule Europe. They both have an interest in keeping Russia happy but far away
He will “have more flexibility after the elections”.
By such aggression and expansionism, Russia stands to gain nothing and lose all. Western military doctrine is not what Russian leaders believe it to be. It’s much more oriented toward decisiveness and finality than they know.
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