Posted on 11/01/2014 11:09:16 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans
Snip
"There has been an aggravation of the situation and an increase in military activity in the Novoazovsk area over the last few days. There are casualties among marines and our fighters. I assume that the enemy will not attack Mariupol (it was very painful for the enemy last time), but rather, Berdiansk. This will cut off the Mariupol army group. We could have an encirclement worse than in Ilovaisk,” said letskyi.
Dmytro Tymchuk, head of the Information Resistance group, reports on his Facebook page that Russian-backed militants continue intensive artillery fire upon Ukrainian troops at the front positions and are sending more reconnaissance subversive groups in the direction of the Donetsk-Mariupol road. The Russian command has set the goal for its divisions and local gang formations to paralyze the road in the Mariupol direction, he said.
“Attempts to infiltrate the area west of Mariupol by the enemy’s reconnaissance and subversive groups to block the Novoazovsk–Odesa (E58) road are increasing. Ukrainian troops are taking active measures to find and neutralize these groups,” he said.
Russian-backed separatist seem to be testing the combat readiness of Ukrainian troops. The recent destruction of the Ukrainian checkpoint No. 32 was a “combat readiness test” undertaken by a new strike group consisting of Russian-backed terrorists and Russian mercenaries, according Tymchuk.
A “strike group” in the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR), built upon the Phantom Mechanized Brigade (whose commander is Oleskiy Mozhovyi), consists of as many as 1,200 local militants and Russian mercenaries, 20 tanks, 40 armored combat vehicles and about 40 units of conventional and rocket artillery, according to Tymchuk. The group has received anti-tank grenade launchers, anti-tank guided weapons systems, MANPADs (air defense portable missiles) and mortars from Russia, he said.
Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov provided some interesting details on the Savik Shuster show broadcast on October 30. Nemtsov called the “elections’ in Donetsk and Luhansk a provocation and a serious violation of the Minsk agreements. He pointed out that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is brazenly lying when he says that these “elections” were foreseen in Minsk agreement. Representatives of Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) signed the Minsk Protocol, an agreement to halt the war in the Donbass region of Ukraine, on 5 September 2014.
In fact, according to paragraphs 3 and 9 of the Minsk agreement, elections are to be held in accordance with the laws of Ukraine.
snip...
Pavlo Zhebrivskiy highlighted why Russia wants to hold these elections in the LNR and DNR as a guest on the Savik Shuster show broadcast on October 31. Zhebrivskiy was a candidate for deputy to the Ukrainian parliament from electoral district No. 63, Zhitomir Oblast, running on the Sobor platform. He serves as a volunteer in military intelligence for Ukraine’s Anti-Terrorist Operation near Debaltsevo, organising intelligence work in the territories not controlled by the Ukrainian army. Zhebrivskiy explained how the DNR and LNR “elections” are to be organized using Alchevsk as an example. Separatists are going to open five voting sites in Alchevsk, allowing voting from the age of 16. No law or act exists detailing how to conduct these elections, no list of voters is available, and voting through the Internet is allowed. People are likely to vote, he said, because separatists have threatened that people who do not come to vote will not receive social services or material assistance and have said that those not voting should got to territory under the control of Ukraine and try to get pensions and social security there. Given that only five voting stations will be opened, there will be long lines of those waiting to vote, creating excellent images for Russian TV channels.
Zhebrivskiy assumes that Putin’s goals are more far-reaching explained than legitimization of the LNR and DNR.. After these elections, an escalation of the conflict can be expected, and military operations will intensify. “Even today we see that shelling has considerably increased. Immediately after the election, the confrontation will be more severe because a key condition has not been met: control over the border. Without control over the border with Russia, cessation of hostilities is impossible.”
“We understand that these elections will bring nothing good, neither to people living in these occupied territories nor for the people of Ukraine as a whole. The issue is that military actions are becoming more dynamic. We are entering a very difficult path as winter begins. The conflict will escalate in the winter. We observe that locals are being replaced with regular Russian army servicemen. Five days ago, we received information that 80 military vehicles, both armored vehicles and trucks with servicemen and equipment, entered Krasny Luch, Luhansk Oblast. Today [October 31, 2014] we received information that 50 tanks arrived from Russia. It looks like a wide-scale offensive operation is in preparation.”
“We should not deceive ourselves. If Putin intended to comply with the Minsk agreement he would have done so. But he resorts to exacerbation of the situation and an escalation of military operations. We should be prepared to defend ourselves. We can beat Putin’s army in Ukraine. Our army is not what it was even one or two months ago. The Ukrainian army has more combat experience and is more battle ready to defend Ukraine together with the people of Ukraine. It will not be an easy ride for the Russian army in Ukraine if [Russians and Russian-backed separatists] start an offensive,” concluded Zhebrivskiy.
Predictions of a full-scale attack by the combined forces of the Russian Federation together with the LNR and DNR terrorist organizations in several directions have been made by InformNapalm team Timur Melik and military correspondent Roman Burko in their general summary for November 1, 2014. They have observed a mass rotation of personnel of militant groups, with local “militia” replaced by Russian servicemen. Local residents confirm the presence of many Russian servicemen in Donetsk. It is most likely that the Russian soldiers are replacing hard-to-control militants. The InformNapalm team and Roman Burko point to an increase of personnel and armored vehicles in Alchevsk, Bryanka, Perevalsk, Horlivka, Yenakijeve, and formation of reserves in Rovenky, Antratsyt, Snizhne, and Krasnyi Luch.
The pretext for a full-scale attack could come in the form of a powerful provocation, which could happen either during or shortly after the elections on November 2. It is likely that an attack will not come before November 4 or 5 because the terrorists will need to summarize the results of the elections in order to lend some legitimacy to their leaders. After that, the “legitimate” governments of the newly minted Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics could even declare war on Ukraine. In this case, the Minsk agreements would be void, and the Russian Federation could ally with the terrorists in the war. This scenario would give the LNR/DNR the opportunity to use tactical operational missile complexes.
Rumors among DNR supporters in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk support November 4 or 5 as highly probable for the start of a full-scale attack. These supporters say that the DNR is planning to return to their towns on these days. Directions of a possible offensive are shown in a map prepared by BurkoNews.info and InformNapalm Group.
Well, we knew this was coming. Damn shame. The idiot is determined to grab as much as he can no matter what the expense in lives and materials.
Why doesn’t he just take it over already? I don’t understand this Mickey Mouse thing he has going on in Ukraine.
I hope Putin dies of cancer. It’d be the best thing for the people of Russia and the world.
Obama has made a mess of U.S./Russia relations.
I can’t help but think it is driven more by economics than by lust for power. If we help make them desperate we help drive them to desperate measures.
Interesting that there has been nothing about Ukraine for quite a while in the msm and the Russian intrusions are barely mentioned.
This certainly has nothing to do with economics. It is true that Putin is a thief, but Putin is the former head of the KGB/FSB and is surrounded by “former” members of the KGB. Regular criminals do not send bomber jets to pop into NATO airspace or support communist insurgencies and countries across the world, when both are bad for business. Only Communists do who are after things much grander than money, and even the mere territory of Ukraine. Here is an article for you to read that discusses this at length:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3220169/posts
Complete silence. I’ve been watching the news for stuff on Ukraine every day, and there is not a word about anything on the MSM. The only people covering it are Ukrainians, naturally, and other interested parties.
Putin was KGB but he has not been for a long time. The tragedy is that he may be driven back to those ways partly due to the ineptness of the Obama administration to deal with things diplomatically.
Keep in mind Ukraine was also communist in the past.
According to your theory, Putin is a communist and nothing will stop his push to return to those ways, being motivated by communist ideology. I disagree.
Ukraine has torn down its Lenin statues. They are still up in Russia, and Lenin's corpse is still preserved in glass case. Communism isn't dead in Russia.
According to your theory, Putin is a communist and nothing will stop his push to return to those ways, being motivated by communist ideology. I disagree.
Read that other article. You will cease disagreeing.
Bush dealt with Putin better than Obama. Do you agree with that?
The promise of capitalism has to start meaning something or the people who were used to communism will want to return to it. There are many many poor people in both Ukraine and Russia. I don’t think strong sanctions will work. In fact they will have an opposite effect.
Russia is not as weak as it is poor. They are a country with a lot of pride — good and bad. I think it is foolish and dangerous to escalate tensions. Does anyone really want to go to war with them?
I have been to Ukraine. It is a scary place. You drive by big apartment complexes with most of the windows broken—very run down. People who have jobs make a tiny amount of money. There is lots of crime and corruption. The place I stayed had armed guards. You can’t entirely separate the people from the condition of the country. It is one thing to hope for better. It is another thing to have the ability and knowhow to achieve it.
From the News: Russia says its economy would be hurt by the (EU) free trade deal because it would allow Ukraine to export cheaper European goods to Russia, undercutting local products.”
Is that so entirely different from people in the US saying BUY AMERICAN? When Ukraine decided to align with EU over Russia it was about economic issues. NOT about communism.
What I don’t get is why the EU is okay to put sanctions on Russia. Isn’t that punishing Russia in order to financially benefit themselves?
I am not saying force is right. I am saying I do see why Russia is worried about their own economy. Ukraine would be wise to accommodate Russia on at least most of this. Surely they could work out something that would benefit both of them.
~Bush dealt with Putin better than Obama. Do you agree with that?
The promise of capitalism has to start meaning something or the people who were used to communism will want to return to it. There are many many poor people in both Ukraine and Russia. I don’t think strong sanctions will work. In fact they will have an opposite effect.
Russia is not as weak as it is poor. They are a country with a lot of pride — good and bad. I think it is foolish and dangerous to escalate tensions. Does anyone really want to go to war with them?~
WOW. We finally have someone who have a clue on foreign policy and he is no less but a Spirit of FR:)
Maybe we haven’t yet run out of common sense here?
I’m a firm believer that to be positive and to lose interest in leftism a society needs to sustain prolonged economic growth and reach past about $20,000 average annual income.
People who are well off due to their own labor and enterprise aren’t that much fond about grabbing and redistribution, and as far as they have something to lose they are interested in a rule of law and political liberties to have influence and control with the government to limit its reach.
Poor people doesn’t need anything of the above and they are happy to see the rich who are doing better than they are to be looted ‘for a common good’ - which is leftism all about.
That is a primary reason why economic sanctions aren’t actually helping and it is also why instilling democracy into poverty-ridden hellholes never really worked.
We have Lenin statues in the USA. We tear down crosses!!
Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov provided some interesting details on the Savik Shuster show broadcast on October 30. Nemtsov called the “elections’ in Donetsk and Luhansk a provocation and a serious violation of the Minsk agreements. He pointed out that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is brazenly lying when he says that these “elections” were foreseen in Minsk agreement... according to paragraphs 3 and 9 of the Minsk agreement, elections are to be held in accordance with the laws of Ukraine.
Well put. And thanks for the link.
I have a question: who brings sanctions on America when American govt(s) doesn’t behave, one way or another, or are American govt(s) somehow exempt?
The Soviets were thinking at one point of using nukes in Afghanistan... what makes us think they prise Ukraine any less now.
He isn’t an idiot. Madman, but not an idiot. He has a short window to take back NovoRussia (the Ukraine is the birthplace of the Rus), and he knows it.
The Poles are the next major group to be eaten, after the Baltic states. They might be able to stop him if they work with the Germans, or the Germans might agree to re partition Poland as outlined in Dugin’s book.
In short, it seems like an old tune. And we have a community organizer at the helm.
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