Posted on 10/25/2014 5:08:55 AM PDT by Kaslin
For most of 2012, I maintained that Mitt Romney would lose to Barack Obama. Only after President Obama's first debate did there seem to be a glimmer of hope. After that debate, polling moved in Romney's direction. Conservatives had hope.
As we now know, much of the polling in 2012 was wrong. There were some great pollsters. The IBD/TIPP poll, the Reuters/Ipsos poll, the Pew Poll, and others were spot on. But many pollsters, including the most prominent pollster of all, Gallup, were left with black eyes.
After the election, Scott Rasmussen left his own eponymous polling firm. The Rasmussen poll, relied on for comfort by Republicans, had gotten it wrong. In fact, many Republican firms underestimated President Obama's ground game. This year, however, much of the polling world is on the same page nationally. President Obama's job performance ratings are terrible. Nationally, most likely voters want the Republicans to take the Senate.
Now would be a good time to ask if there may be a Deming Funnel problem in state-level polling. Dr. W. Edward Deming devised, among other things, a funnel experiment. The goal was simple: Drop a marble through a funnel onto a sheet of paper on which a target had been placed. The objective was to get the marble as close to the target as possible. It turned out to be more difficult than one might expect. The experiment showed that tampering with systems without fully understanding them can lead to even more adverse results.
In-state level polling around the country, much of it is done by small pollsters or political consulting shops diversifying into polling shops. Those pollsters remember the lessons of 2012. They remember the ruined reputations of pollsters who got it wrong. They do not want that to happen. They remember, in particular, that one reason so many pollsters got it wrong was because those pollsters underestimated the president's ground game.
These pollsters have adjusted and compensated accordingly. Many state races, including in red states such as Georgia, seem very close. Kentucky, where Allison Grimes has run a disastrous race against Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, seems too close to call. The closeness in these races, however, is not reflected in national polling or even in many of the polls conducted by major polling firms that got 2012 right.
The recently released Associated Press/GfK poll has been perhaps the best news for President Obama lately. That poll showed President Obama's disapproval was at 59 percent. Yes, that was the good poll for him. The Reuters/IPSOS poll, released at about the same time as the AP's poll, showed President Obama at 61 percent disapproval among likely voters. Likely voters is key. Democrats do better when registered voters as a whole are polled, and they do best when all American adults are polled. But American adults do not all vote. President Obama's approval ratings improve as the number of people polled increases.
Just as striking, the generic ballot question favors the Republicans. In 2010, the Associated Press gave the Republicans a 7-point margin on the generic ballot asking voters which party they preferred to control congress. In 2014, the AP poll gives the Republicans an 8-point margin, even showing Republicans gaining with women.
More and more national polling trends suggest the Republican Party is going to take over the United States Senate. In states like Colorado, where Republicans have had a difficult time, the Republican Senate candidate has moved into the lead. Democrats have given up trying to win new seats in the House of Representatives. They have largely given up on breaking even, instead just trying to mitigate their losses.
Again, though, this is not reflected in much statewide polling. Those national polls should, ultimately, be reflected. In fact, in states such as Georgia where polls show a tremendously close race headed for a runoff, President Obama is deeply unpopular among likely voters. All this begs a question: Are some of these races really as close as they appear, or have pollsters, worried about their reputations after 2012, over-corrected their sampling?
“Why can’t the “moderate” (liberal) wing of the Party ever vote Conservative?”
They would, but first we have to get one nominated. To do that conservatives will have to get behind ONE candidate, and not piss away primary votes fringe turds like Ron Paul or others with no chance of winning.
Demanding closed primaries would be a good first step.
Clinton will make obama look competent
Discovering that 110% of registered voters in an area voted and all of them voted Democrat does the Republicans no good at all. Those votes will not be thrown out. They will count, no matter how open the cheating. Some Democrat ops may eventually be fined. One or two may even go to jail but they will be rewarded handsomely by their Party and it is all worth it to them.
The problem isn’t polling, it is Vote Fraud.
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Yes, it is fraud but the democratic party is now so much more than voter fraud, it has become a TOTALLY corrupt criminal enterprise on every political level. If this criminal enterprise is allowed to operate unabated, the country is doomed. They will destroy it and dance in the streets as they celebrate their criminality. There will be no let up until they have killed the goose that lays the golden eggs. Totalitarianism is the final destination.
Correct. The salient issue is the ability of pollsters to determine the impact of electoral fraud. It may seem impossible but paying close attention to Democrat tactics should make everything clear.
Fraud is a policy issue for Dems. Their ground game tacticians base their efforts on the extent to which they can commit fraud. There is no attempt to hide or get away with anything. They know they will not be caught because no one is doing the catching. Small potato workers may be held accountable but only if an entire system of deceit comes unraveled.
It would be most helpful if polling organizations maintained a line item for fraud. It would get us closer to the true nature of elections and it would give them a better chance of getting their prognostications correct.
~~~~~~ ‘Dirty D’ Party ~~~~~~~
WaPo Publishes Scientific Evidence of Voter Fraud on a Massive Scale
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3219377/posts
As Previously Predicted By This Here Very Blog What you are about to read should be front-page news in every newspaper in the country tomorrow. You know it won’t be — but I want you to treat it as that important . . . because it is. In the Washington Post: Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens?
... and National Review ...
Study Claims Large Numbers of Non-Citizens Participate in Elections...
http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/391134/jaw-dropping-study-claims-large-numbers-non-citizens-vote-us-jim-geraghty
... and actual Washington Post article ...
Could non-citizens decide the November election? [Washington Post]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3219200/posts
— All Dems in FEC vote to Control Internet Speech —
[actual headline ...]
FEC Democrat pushes for controls on Internet political speech
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3219360/posts
While all three GOP-backed members voted against restrictions, they were opposed by the three Democratic-backed members, including FEC Vice Chair Ann M. Ravel, who said she will lead a push next year to try to come up with new rules government political speech on the Internet. [unquote]
“One problem with the polls. They don’t poll the dead.”
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That’s because it would be pointless. You see, the dead ALWAYS LIE and say they are not going to vote but when election day comes they all rise up and vote for the rats.
I’m working on the Annette Teijeiro campaign in Nevada Congressional district 1. We shouldn’t have a bat’s chance in hell against uber liberal incumbent Dina Titus. But holy smokes, we think we are dead even from the primary results and the early voting party breakout.
Fight on until the last vote is counted!
We could use volunteers by the way. 2069 E. Sahara Blvd Suite A
Erick doesn’t even *bring up* vote fraud in the article.
Someone posted a horrifying graphic of the four swing states (PA, FL, OH and KY)’s fraud that gave the election to zero, against most polling.
MS SCOTUS ruled yesterday in Cochran’s favor after he compelled voters to commit fraud by voting in both the R and D primaries.
I can’t even imagine what heinous fraud will be evident in CO: how will the RATS know when to stop counting the fraudulent votes they ‘harvested’ and filled in to avoid Chickenpoop and Udall from winning with 20% margins?
So we are screwed, blued and tattooed, right?
You nailed it!
I peeked into DU the other day and the libtards were bemoaning the fact that Republicans commit vote fraud. I don’t know if the person was serious or just preaching it to the others.
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