Joni Ernst Is the GOP's Breakout Star. The Democratic Machine Could Still Beat Her.

DES MOINES, Iowa—Marilynn Wadden, a retired elementary school teacher, was smiling as she settled into her seat at a Democratic field office here and began making calls for Senate candidate Bruce Braley. "We love this," Wadden says of the computer system that is doing the dialing for her. "It is just such a joy."

Two years ago, when Wadden was making calls as a volunteer for President Obama, she had to punch numbers into the phone herself, write down voters' answers on paper, and then hand off the sheets to a data-entry team. "Now, we're kind of doing the data as we go," she says as she types. "I bet people are twice as efficient on the phone."

That is a frightening thought for Iowa Republicans still smarting from two straight cycles of defeat that they blame on superior Democratic infrastructure. "The Obama machine, organization—whatever you'd like to call it—took us to school in 2008 and again in 2012," says David Oman, who cochaired Mitt Romney's Iowa campaign last cycle.

This year, Oman is finance chairman for Joni Ernst, the Iowa Republican nominee for Senate, who is locked in one of the closest contests of the cycle—a race many believe could tip the Senate majority. And Oman is hoping the third time is the charm.

There is certainly plenty going right for the Iowa GOP in 2014: an unpopular Democratic president, a favorable political climate, and a popular GOP governor cruising to reelection atop the ticket. But as they are in Senate races across the country—Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, to name a few—Democrats here are hoping smart tactics can offset a national mood that favors Republicans. And in Iowa, fears of the Democratic machine lurk not far below the surface.

What the Republicans also have going for them this year is Ernst herself, a folksy state senator and lieutenant colonel in the Iowa National Guard who has emerged as one of the breakout stars of 2014. She burst through a crowded Senate GOP primary with an ad touting her farm-girl roots castrating hogs. "Let's make them squeal!" she said of Washington spenders. The ad drew national attention (627,000 YouTube views and counting) and a deluge of donations.

It hasn't hurt that Ernst has a toothy grin and would be the first female combat veteran to serve in the Senate—"Mother. Soldier. Independent leader." is plastered on her campaign RV. Or that she is running in the 2016 caucus-kickoff state—Republican presidential contenders have been tripping over themselves to fly into Iowa to help. Ernst hauled in $6 million in the third quarter, the most of any candidate in the country in any quarter this cycle.

"She's got momentum. She's got charisma. But Democrats have great organization there," former top Obama strategist David Axelrod said of the race on MSNBC earlier this month. "It's really organization versus momentum and charisma, and we'll see."

Left out of Axelrod's analysis was Braley himself, one of the biggest Democratic disappointments of the cycle. ("David Axelrod is entitled to his opinion," Braley told me during a stop in Des Moines. "But, look, his opinion is not going to turn out voters in Iowa.") During last fall's government shutdown, he complained, albeit half-jokingly, about the lack of towel service at the House gym. Braley stuck his foot in his mouth again earlier this year when he mocked the state's popular senior senator, Republican Chuck Grassley, as a "farmer from Iowa who never went to law school." A clip of that remark is playing on repeat in ads across Iowa.

Most recent polls have shown Ernst narrowly ahead and her supporters more energized. She is more liked than disliked by Iowa voters, while Braley's favorability rating is underwater in most surveys.

But as the race enters the final two-week sprint, it's clear that Ernst isn't so much battling Braley. She's battling the Democratic get-out-the-vote apparatus

"She's just a good candidate. I think it can break her way," says Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Republican and social conservative activist who recently has been on a tour across the state. "But there's just no doubt that there's a good reason to be scared."

On a recent Wednesday, more than two dozen Democratic activists in Des Moines were dialing for Braley alongside Wadden. There weren't enough tables and chairs in the field office, so some of the younger volunteers sat cross-legged on the floor, phones pressed to their ears. In a quieter corner, two legally blind volunteers were making calls together; their service dog, Amber, milled about the office.

Democrats have 35 of these field offices across the state; Republicans have only 13 (not counting local organizations).

Iowa is one of the first states to begin voting, back in late September. Its election rules also allow for so-called ballot chasing—party officials or volunteers physically gathering ballots from voters to turn them in. It's a setup that benefits the best-organized campaigns.

Both parties have tussled who has a superior early-vote operation this year. Democrats boast that they are mobilizing people who would otherwise not have voted, pointing to unusually high numbers of voters who didn't cast a ballot in the last midterm. "We are literally expanding the electorate," brags Christina Freundlich, communications director for the Iowa Democratic Party.

Of the Republicans, Braley says, "If you just are targeting voters, to get them to vote early, who would have voted on Election Day, that's not how you're going to win this race."

National Democratic operatives say that Iowa is one of the states where the much-ballyhooed $60 million get-out-the-vote operation dubbed the "Bannock Street Project" will make the most difference. (Colorado is another.)

The fact that the Iowa race is within the margin of error in most polls heightens the importance of field operations.

Both sides acknowledge that Republicans were late to the ground game in Iowa, by not recognizing in previous cycles the importance of securing votes ahead of Election Day. "They are at the point now of realizing that early vote is the way to go. We're just a few cycles ahead of them on that," Freundlich says. "Every day is an election day. Election Day is just the last day to vote."

Republicans insist they've closed the gap, pointing to numbers that show the Democratic edge in partisan ballots turned in has waned compared to past years. The goal for Republicans is to keep the race close through early voting; as several GOP operatives noted, even Romney won Iowa among voters who went to the polls on Election Day.

David Kochel, a senior Ernst strategist, admits he was nervous about the 2014 GOP field operation at first but his confidence has grown as the numbers roll in. "Not anymore," he says. "The uninspired remnants of the Obama organization isn't going to be enough to stop an invigorated GOP ticket led by [Governor] Terry Branstad and Joni Ernst. There's no comparison."

Perhaps the biggest wild card is the efforts of Americans for Prosperity, the conservative nonprofit affiliated with brothers Charles and David Koch, which recently told The Washington Post that it has five offices and three dozen paid staff, and has knocked on 80,000 doors. AFP Iowa did not return calls for comment.

Joni Ernst has emerged as the rare Republican capable of uniting the disparate factions of the Republican Party. She was endorsed both by Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin in a contested primary. And her potential as a fresh female face in a party desperate for more female leaders has added to her allure.

Consider this: Romney, Sens. Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, Gov. Rick Perry, former Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Marco Rubio, Rep. Paul Ryan, Gov. Bobby Jindal, and Sens. Rob Portman, John Thune, Kelly Ayotte, and John Barasso all have attended or hosted events for Ernst in recent months.

"She's become a rock star, certainly among Republicans," says Oman, her finance director. To put her $6 million third quarter in perspective, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell raised $3.2 million during the same period.

Ernst, 44, has served in the state Senate since 2011, after working a local auditor. But it's her two decades in the military, and service in Iraq as part of the Iowa National Guard, that she has highlighted on the trail. "My boots were on the ground now held by ISIS," she retorted to Braley in their last debate.

Ernst has excited not just GOP insiders but Iowa voters. A recent NBC/Marist poll showed a huge enthusiasm gap, with more than 60 percent of Ernst backers saying they were actively supporting her, versus 34 percent who were more opposing Braley. The reverse was true for him. More than 60 percent of his supporters were mostly opposed to her, rather than actively for him.

After a recent rally with Romney, Ernst's appeal was on display as she hugged her way through the GOP crowd, snapping pictures, sharing embraces, and even signing the shirt of one man in a wheelchair. (Her staff whisked her away from reporters, however, as Ernst refused to answer any questions.)

Ernst has starred in many of her own ads. Besides talking hog castration, she has fired a gun, ridden a motorcycle, and baked biscuits on camera. Braley, 56, who has served in Congress for four terms, had appeared in few of his own general election ads until late September. Ernst gathered more than 60 percent of online voter interest, compared with under 40 percent for Braley, according to a recent analysis by Echelon Insights, a digital GOP firm.

Democrats have tried to cut Ernst down with a campaign to cast her as an extremist. They have some politically potent fodder, including video of her speaking about the possibility of privatizing Social Security and her support for "personhood" legislation, which could ban some forms of birth control (Ernst says she is in favor of birth-control access). She's suggested that states could nullify federal law and raised the specter of impeaching Obama. She also suggested that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, before trying to backtrack.

"Sound bites have consequences," Braley has repeated over and over during their debates and on the stump, perhaps more hopefully than factually. Months of attacks have taken their toll on her, but she has avoided the "crazy candidate" stigma that has landed on some other Republicans who have faced such withering critiques.

The campaign has turned so negative that both Braley and Ernst said in a debate that they and their families have stopped watching television altogether.

Ernst's emergence as the Teflon candidate of the cycle (despite all the ads, she's still viewed more favorably than not) has exasperated Democrats and some liberal media allies. ("How does this GOP Senate candidate keep getting away with such terrible gaffes?" asked Mother Jones. "Tea Party nut's free ride," read Salon.)

Democrats are flying in high-powered allies to lift up Braley in the final weeks with mixed success. When two of Braley's biggest surrogates, first lady Michelle Obama and former President Clinton, came to Iowa in recent weeks, they both flubbed his name. "You need to elect Bruce Bailey," Obama urged Democrats at Drake University. She misstated his name half a dozen times, providing fodder for GOP web videos and late-night comedians alike. "Wow," joked Stephen Colbert, "a powerful endorsement from the first lady."

The embarrassing episode aside, Braley invited the first lady back. On Tuesday, she'll be in Iowa City, trying to round up more voters in the liberal college town.

"Democrats always have a great ground game," Braley says. "That's how you win elections in Iowa."

Votes are a product.

If I don’t want the product being offered, I will either not buy anything, or buy a different one.

If the GOP keeps attacking conservatives, why are they shocked when conservatives don’t vote for them?

Why would you vote for a candidate with views you don’t like, who doesn’t like you, and is opposed to what you believe in?

“Democrats are interested in winning. Conservatives, it’s hard to say what we are interested in, but winning is not very high up on our list.”
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Why the gratuitous shot in this thread, out of nowhere, at conservatives? You frequently claim to want Republican unity, but frequently take shots at conservatives. Practice what you preach!

Why would you vote for a candidate with views you don’t like, who doesn’t like you, and is opposed to what you believe in?

A single vote, for or against someone is useless. The only thing more useless is a failure to vote. In the political process, you band together with likeminded people to vote for people who will carry your agenda forward. You have to carefully define likeminded, because if you are too particular, you cannot elect your desired candidate and usually someone who will work against your wishes will come to power. You need to pick someone with a broad appeal who can act in a very focused way on very specific ideas without alienating the mushy and disengaged middle. Ronald Reagan understood this dynamic perfectly. Many others do not and they can never succeed.

Your criticism is merited. I do not mean to point a finger at conservatives, to do so would mean that four fingers are pointing back at me. My complaint is aimed at people who advocate sitting at home doing nothing, voting for Democrats, or supporting some guy with a 48 hour pass from a mental institution. These folks claim to be conservatives, but they are not. Even if their intentions are good, their behavior is harmful to the conservative cause. I find that behavior difficult to support, and I won’t.

If they are in favor of women’s empowerment, and women in politics and all that, how do they explain this?
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Because they are more in favor of:

1. A candidate who will let them kill their unborn babies.

2. A candidate who will give them money, free medical care and food stamps if they have their babies.

Want is 3X more?
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I assume you’re asking “What” is 3x more? 35 Field offices is almost 3x more that 13 Field offices.

Are you saying Edmund, that the GOP doesn’t have money? Yes they do, but, they have to pay everybody for working for GOP Campaigns; DemocRATS volunteer.

I’m thinking we might see some “surprises” on Election Night. I just pray that Joni Ernst wins. The rest of the GOP which are either RINOs or crusty old farts with one foot in the grave who think that Senate Seat belongs to them.... who gives a s**t? To hell with them.

See, once again you are missing the point. For instance, I will vote for Eranst because she does represent many of my views. The GOP and other so called “conservative” media has come out against her.

So the party really doesn’t want my vote, they have been pretty clear about how they are not for what Jodi stands for. So, why should I as a voter have loyalty to the party who is actively trying to get their own candidate to lose the election?

Either the GOP-E represents our values or they don’t get our votes.

Non-negotiable.

Don’t like the results??

Go whine to someone that cares.
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HECK YEAH! You tell ‘em SoConPubbie! Voting is a sacred right. No one has a right to my vote. They have to earn it. If they don’t earn it..... piss off. I’m not your political sugar daddy.

The problem is that we, as typical voters, have little to no influence on the party platform.

The party issues are decided by the elite and big donors. The concerns expressed by the rank and file are not even a topic of discussion. The reason why Ernst is making so many waves is she was not approved by the GOPE, grew her own base of support, and is addressing topics that the GOPE has no desire to.

For instance, she is pro life. The GOP does not like that (ruffles to many feathers). Ernst is also against amnesty, which the GOP desperately needs (cheap, non taxable labor). She is for limited taxes, limited government, and reduced regulation. All of those are a threat to the powers in Washington.

This is a local race for me. There have been many so called “conservative” media pieces attacking her for being to radical, to conservative, for elections.

Again, the GOP is TRYING to lose my vote. They don’t want me in the party. I don’t have the money or influence to change that. Because of the circumstances of my birth, I will never have the influence. Simply put, we inhabit different worldview’s, and will not meet in them middle because we no longer speak the same language.

I can, and do, work locally. But my days of voting for the “R” are over. Each person has to convince me to buy their product.

Tax dollars can buy a lot of cool technology and programming for the democrats.

You didn’t think they were really spending billions on solar panels, did you?

(lose paraphrase of Independence day and Area 51)

Being here on ground zero like you, my gut feeling is that Ernst has tremendous momentum right now. It may not be as close as some people think.
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From your Keyboard to God’s ears. Women are the largest bloc of voters in any election. You’d think they’d like to see the first woman ever elected to the U.S. Senate from Iowa, happen this year. They could be part of history. But, then, there are a lot of women who just vote for whoever will let them kill their unborn babies or support them after they’re born.

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