Mother Jones Claims the Rate of Mass Shootings Has Tripled Since 2011. Is That True?

reason.com ^ | 10/16/2014 | Jesse Walker

[rktman]

Two years ago, Mother Jones published a "Guide to Mass Shootings in America," which claimed to show that such slayings happen more often now than in the past. The feature, whose data have been updated periodically since it first went up, has been both widely cited and harshly disputed. This week the outlet has published a new analysis claiming that mass shootings occur far more frequently than they did several decades ago and that the rate has tripled since 2011. Whether you buy that depends on whether you buy into the previous piece, because the new article has essentially the exact same flaws.

[elcid1970]

Lefties always think the masses should be disarmed so that the revolution can triumph.

Where’s that 1918 Red commissar poster, “Citizens! Turn in your weapons!”

[Swordmaker]

Is it true? It could be. If you allow me to choose the base starting period of the comparison, I can make any comparison say anything I want. For example, let’s say that ten people are killed today. . . and five were killed yesterday. . . but fifteen were killed last week. If I limit the starting period to the day before yesterday, I can truthfully say that the MURDER RATE HAS DOUBLED IN THE PAST TWO DAYS! simply by ignoring what went before a week ago.

Back in the 80s the Liberal media used this technique to try and erase the Reagan gains by setting the starting year they were comparing the growth to well before the Carter losses. . . 1976. This had the effect of making the phenomenal Reagan growth rates look anemic. Had they instead used the base year of 1982, when his policies first started taking effect, the growth rates were astounding.

So, using 2011 as a base... a year that was extremely LOW in mass murdering maniacs. . . gives them the way to totally distort the admittedly too many that occurred in 2012-2014 as a large increase. But had they used 1990, not so much.

[rktman]

LOL! So you can prove glow-bull discombobulation is for real using that method as well? Me too. Typical liblogic and calculation techniques. :>}

[GailA]

NO, just as 2 evils are still evil. Just because 1 is less evil does not mean we should vote for either.

I was just refute the commie junk with the gov’t junk.
Word of caution, crime is not counted accurately. More of our governments fuzzy math tricks. It is Hierarchical Counted, only the most serious crime is counted if there were actually 4 crimes committed at the same time. Kidnap, rape, rob then kill a person, only the murder counts. Rest flushed down the toilet.

These 2 are a 45% sampling. Recidivism
http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=tp&tid=17

Probation and Parole: https://www.ncjrs.gov/txtfiles/ppvsp91.txt
Keep in mind the sampling was just 45%, they originally committed 25,900 crimes, when placed on early release under ‘community’ supervision for parole and probation they then committed another 74,400 new crimes. That folks adds up to 100,300 crimes, and many times more than in victims. As there are multiple people affected when a child is raped or a person murdered.

This is an older study as there are no newer ones, this gives you a big idea of just how many additional crimes early release of criminals to parole and probation cause.

In 1991, 45% of State prisoners were persons who, at the time they committed their offense, were under conditional supervision in the community—either on probation or on parole. They then committed an additional 74,400 new crimes. Their original crimes add up to 25,900. The NEW crimes FAR out ceded their REPEAT CRIMES. Total 100,300 crimes this is JUST 45% of the parole and probation population.

[Swordmaker]

LOL! So you can prove glow-bull discombobulation is for real using that method as well? Me too. Typical liblogic and calculation techniques. :>}

Of course. . . and that's what they are doing. Picking and choosing the data sets that prove their point and excluding the data sets that don't. . . not to mention creating data sets out of nothing, not even whole cloth. I can show that Glowbull warming is real in every part of the planet by showing that it is warmer. . . by measuring the temperature in the morning. . . then again in the afternoon. Glory BE! It's hotter in the afternoon. . . every where! GLobul Warming is happening EVERYWHERE!!!! Run around in circles, scream and shout, APPLY FOR A GRANT! This MUST be studied before dinner every day! We can prove this happens every day!!! Why I can do this study from Hawaii. . .

[Swordmaker]

These 2 are a 45% sampling. Recidivism

Did you know that the recidivism rate among executed criminals is ZERO???

Yup, it is. Not one executed criminal has ever committed another crime.

[GailA]

I know which is why I am trying my best to get the RAPIST/KILLER of my friends' 8 year old daughter executed. And am asking every one I can to join the cause. You do not have to live in TN to do an email or phone call. Just believe in justice.

Ashley Nichole 'Nikki' Read, age 8, RAPED and KILLED by david keen. 24 yrs ago. He has been on TN Death Row for 20 yrs. ALL State and Federal Appeals are FINISHED. DNA proved he raped her, he confessed he both raped and strangled her to with her own shoe laces. Yet TN Gov Bill Halsam refuses to set an execution date or sign the execution warrant.

615) 741-2001 bill.haslam@tn.gov

Nikki was raped, strangled with her own Shoelaces, wrapped tightly in her blanket and thrown in the river barely still alive, where she finally drown to

death. 24 Yrs of waiting for Justice, is obscene. Tell TN Governor to do his Constitutional Duty, that 2 juries decided and all appeals courts UPHELD was the right course of action. The Death Penalty.

http://murderpedia.org/male.K/k/keen-david.htm david keen child rapist, murderer

Nikki age 8

[GailA]

Don’t need a study, there is always a copy cat killing after a mass shooting. We have witnessed it escalate since Slick Willie. The schools shoots most certainly.

[GailA]

“When the law no longer protects you from the corrupt, but protects the corrupt from you - you know your nation is doomed.” -Ayn Rand

More of our governments fuzzy math tricks. It is called Hierarchical Counting, only the most serious crime is counted if there were actually 4 crimes committed at the same time. Kidnap, rape, rob then kill a person, only the murder counts. Rest flushed down the toilet.

It is like the head of the TN parole board told me, I CAN MAKE RECIDIVISM WHAT I WANT IT TO READ, BY CONTROLLING WHO I PAROLE! They have it down to a science, they know who will re-offend. Mostly minorities, who serve the least time at least in TN. Who make up 20% of the population if you count both minorities of blacks and hispanics. That is a state Recidivism study BTW. Each state should have one, along with the national one. The state reflects lower by usually 10% than the national as the population is lower in a state than at the national level.

[Boogieman]

We (conservatives) don’t need a study to figure that out, but a study is absolutely needed if you want to demonstrate that to a leftist, or even moderates. They won’t take our word for it, and if they could draw the conclusions we draw from simply watching the news, they would already be on our side.

[GailA]

I have a very stubborn 74 year old husband, he is conservative, but he need facts. That is the Ret. SCPO and Teacher in him. 20 yrs of both.

When he was reacting badly to Crestor, I had to print out the Governments fact sheet and make him read it and threaten to sleep in another bed if he did NOT get off it. Dr had OD’d him on it. I think the fact I’d actually sleep alone made him change his mind. My broken rib and degenerative back could not take him shaking the King bed every 15 sec like some one took a cattle prod to him. Much less waking up screaming from leg cramping. Worse cholesterol drug on the market. Expensive too.

Public is brainwashed on Crestor and Lipitor, they are NOT the best, they are the worst for side effects, slick ad campaigns made them 1 & 2. Older drugs work just as good at a lot less expense and side effects.