Posted on 09/28/2014 3:44:25 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
On the polling front this weekend, Republicans have a few reasons to celebrate. Last week, the building blocks of the narrowest Republican Senate majority were clearly coming together. This week, polls indicate that Republicans have a number of avenues to pursue in their quest to win back the majority.
In Louisiana, Rep. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) has significantly narrowed the gap with Mary Landrieu (D-LA), but that race looks set to head to a runoff. A CNN/ORC survey released on Sunday shows Cassidy and Landrieu statistically tied with 40 to 43 percent support respectively.
That poll also revealed that retired Air Force Col. Rob Maness maintains support of the states most conservative voters. The independent candidate draws the support of 9 percent of likely voters in that survey. With former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin scheduled to parachute in to back him, Manesss support is only likely to grow.
In November, it is unlikely that any candidate will net a majority of the vote, sending that race into a runoff in December. But Cassidy leads Landrieu in a two-way runoff in the latest CNN/ORC survey with 50 to 47 percent. This is the second poll to show Cassidy with the backing of a majority of Louisianas voters in a hypothetical runoff election. Given the fact that he two-term Sen. Landrieu is a thoroughly known quantity and is still trailing her challenger, it seems Louisiana voters are disinclined to give Landrieu a third term in the upper chamber.
If Republicans unseat Democratic incumbents in Louisiana, Arkansas, Alaska, and Montana, and win the races for open seats in South Dakota and West Virginia all of which not only seems possible but a likely outcome given the polling the GOP will win a narrow Senate majority.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Prediction at the moment
SD, WV, MT, AR, AK, IA, and CO to win on election night
LA goes to a runoff and goes R as well
KS is a squeaker, but I think Orman is going to be bombed with ads exposing him, so Roberts will pull it out.
That gives a total of an 8 seat swing, which is a little higher than I had predicted before.
Hagan will hang on in NC. NH will be a total nailbiter, but Shaheen will win just due to Brown’s RINO-ism. Same story in Virginia, but it will be closer than people expect. Franken will win MN with 5% and change thanks in part to voter fraud and a lousy candidate. Unfortunately, I think we’ll lose Michigan. Land failed to capitalize on an early lead and let it slip away.
GA and KY are holds. Seriously, Grimer and Nunn are trashy candidates. They’ll only go down from here.
This list does not include the Senate seats which are considered to be Safe for either party.
State | Republican | Democrat |
---|---|---|
AK | Dan Sullivan | Mark Begich |
AR | Tom Cotton | Mark Pryor |
CO | Cory Gardner | Mark Udall |
GA-OPEN | David Perdue | Michelle Nunn |
IA-OPEN | Joni Ernst | Bruce Braley |
IL | Jim Oberweis | Dick Durbin |
KS | Pat Roberts | Chad Taylor |
KY | Mitch McConnell | Alison Grimes |
LA | Bill Cassidy | Mary Landrieu |
MI-OPEN | Teri Lynn Land | Gary Peters |
MN | Mike McFadden | Al Franken |
MS | Thad Cochran | Travis Childers |
MT-OPEN | Steve Daines | Amanda Curtis |
NC | Thom Tillis | Kay Hagan |
NH | Scott Brown | Jeanne Shaheen |
NJ | Jeff Bell | Cory Booker |
OR | Monica Wehby | Jeff Merkley |
SD-OPEN | Mike Rounds | RIck Weiland |
VA | Ed Gillespie | Mark Warner |
WV-OPEN | Shelley Moore Capito | Natalie Tennant |
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It is time to take back the country and become again rooted in the Judeo/Christian roots of the Constitution, with liberty, not licentiousness and the right to pursue happiness, not the right to have it given you by the sweat of your neighbor's brow; the right to a hand up in tough times, not a perpetual handout. It is time to re-learn the Natural Law roots of the founders also and re-learn what the good really is so each of us can do the good and avoid the evil. To know again that with each right, comes a responsibility.
Pray Americans.
Maness’ continued presence in that race in LA gives Landrieu a second bite at the apple in November, because Cassidy will fall short of the required 50% to avoid a runoff in November. That open primary system in LA gives a huge advantage to the incumbent.
*second bite of the apple in December.
Repeat it please and tell your friends and family. Thanks.
I pray Lord your faithful unseat those who seek to circumvent your will. Turn our nation back to you Lord and cause in us a national repentance. Amen!
Even after a long shower and a couple large shots I'll still feel like a rino wh*re afterward.
I dont see winning states like NC and LA as much of a coup. They should be blowouts.
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As evenly divided as this nation is (Conservatives and Liberals) there are NO blowouts. Both states you mentioned, NC and LA, should have been won handily for the GOP, but, Karl Rove and Mitch McConnell succeeded in getting their boy the GOP nomination and Thom Tillis is a non-inspiring, GOP Establishment candidate with no fire in his belly. He’s run an abysmal campaign. As far as LA.....
The GOP Establishment is pushing Bill Cassidy, with his phony smile and RINO leanings. I’m not counting Senator Thunder Thighs out just yet. But, I know this much: After this cycle, the GOP Elites like Karl Rove and Mitch McConnell can’t blame Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock, or Sharron Angle or Christine O’Donnell. The picks of the GOP Establishment have made “slam dunk” races much tougher.
Seriously, Grimer and Nunn are trashy candidates.
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Hmmmmmmm........ that’s an adjective I haven’t seen around here yet. I know you meant Grimes instead of Grimer, but, how are you defining “trashy”? Just curious.
In general, sub-par. They’ve used gutter-style ads that have made them look foolish. Take Grimes’ rifle ad for instance. She’s spinning like a top. The woman is a supporter of gun control, so attacking McConnell on it is just stupid.
It isn't about not trying. It is about money. If you don't have money, you can't buy ad time, etc.
$10 Million in the bank for a VA SENATE race! That’s ridiculous!
We need to get back to the state legislatures appointing senators, with the people continuing to vote for their representatives. I believe that’s a much better distribution of representation. Direct representation of the people + representation of the respective state governments.
Senators being directly elected just makes them a glorified statewide Congressman that has a longer term.
Virginia is not a small state. It is the 13th most populous state in the country and $10 million is not an outsized amount of money for a senate campaign in Virginia. The $10 million is just the amount of money on hand and is not representative of how much has been or will be spent. Would you believe in the Tim Kaine and George Allen senate race in Virgina in 2010 or 2012 (I can't remember which year), a total of $53 million was spent combined on the campaigns - the most of any senate race that year.
But back to your comment about Senators being appointed. There are pros and cons, with most of the cons being corrupt governors/legislatures appointing those who contribute the most to their campaigns or outright bribery, as noted in the IL seat being auctioned off by the dem governor when Obama was elected president.
Your larger point is correct, that the senators were appointed to represent their state interests, but we know how that turned out about 100 years ago. The interesting thing is the House was designed to represent the immediate interests of the voters and the expectation was that house members would have a relatively low reelection rates based on how the political winds were blowing. The senate was supposed to be stable. But as we know now, the senate has a lower reelection rate than the house. I suppose it is because the average voter has a better rapport with their house critter than their senator.
I agree that the legislatures appointing senators would make the process subject to cronyism to the highest degree, but the interests of the state would still be their objective(I would hope).
Sometimes direct elections aren’t the best way to go. I don’t believe judges should be elected, but perhaps there should be a mechanism for voters to remove a judge from office, but it would have to be a very high threshold, such as 66% of the vote, or something on that magnitude; or perhaps 2/3rds of states voting to remove a judge.(I’m speaking in terms of the SCOTUS)
Federal district judges and those at the appellate level probably wouldn’t be practical, and would likely be confusing to most voters.
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