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Will Scotland vote yes: Bookies change their odds on Scottish independence
City AM ^
| 09/17/2014
| by Billy Ehrenberg
Posted on 09/17/2014 1:49:39 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
After a few days of relatively small changes, most bookies have changed their odds on a Scottish Yes vote.
Of 23 bookies, only one (Betway) thought it more likely than yesterday that Scotland would vote Yes, while all but two showed odds shortening on a No vote.
By doing some simple maths it is possible to work out the implied percentages, and betting companies have their money firmly on a No vote.
The median probability across 23 bookies is that there is an 83.3 per cent chance the UK will stay together and a 22.2 per cent chance of a split.
This compares to rates of 80 and 26 per cent yesterday.
Here is how the odds have changed their odds regarding a no vote:
And a yes vote:
Here are the latest odds:
CLICK ON ABOVE LINK FOR THE FRAME
The polls are very close, however, with the latest results showing a four-point lead for the no campaign:
The graphic(s) below show every poll that's been conducted this year. In the first chart (invisible on mobile) clicking on any scatter blot will show how people voted in that poll. The bigger and darker the blot, the larger the sample size.
CLICK ON ABOVE LINK FOR THE FRAME
TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; United Kingdom
KEYWORDS: alexsalamond; alexsalmond; independence; scotland; scotlandyet; uk; unitedkingdom
Bummer. I want to see the socialist Scots separate and run themselves into the ground in record time as an example for all to see. In the mean time, we get the bonus of a more conservative Britain.
THAT's why all the lame stream media is urging "unity."
2
posted on
09/17/2014 1:54:19 PM PDT
by
Henchster
(Free Republic - the BEST site on the web!)
To: SeekAndFind
A vote either way is still a vote for socialism. UK socialism, Euro socialism.
3
posted on
09/17/2014 1:54:24 PM PDT
by
prisoner6
(Stop the Stupid)
To: SeekAndFind
The median probability across 23 bookies is that there is an 83.3 per cent chance the UK will stay together and a 22.2 per cent chance of a split. They are 105% sure.
OK, I know the 5% is the vig.
4
posted on
09/17/2014 1:56:46 PM PDT
by
NeoCaveman
(DC, it's Versailles on the Potomac but without the food and culture)
To: Henchster
You’re assuming that Socialists would learn from history...that’s not plausible.
5
posted on
09/17/2014 2:06:18 PM PDT
by
Attention Surplus Disorder
(At no time was the Obama administration aware of what the Obama administration was doing)
To: SeekAndFind
The bill due and payable would choke this notion of independence right out of their breath. No sense declaring independence from your bank when you're overdrawn by billions. My mortgage company said that is not how it works.
Now if Scotland does a Guernsey turn around, that's an entirely different matter.
6
posted on
09/17/2014 2:09:14 PM PDT
by
blackdog
(There is no such thing as healing, only a balance between destructive and constructive forces.)
To: SeekAndFind; All
7
posted on
09/17/2014 2:21:28 PM PDT
by
SandRat
(Duty - Honor - Country! What else needs said?)
To: Henchster
“Bummer. I want to see the socialist Scots separate and run themselves into the ground in record time as an example for all to see. In the mean time, we get the bonus of a more conservative Britain.
THAT’s why all the lame stream media is urging “unity.”
In the same breath then, you’d best say the “socialist Yankees” to describe our own country.
8
posted on
09/17/2014 2:51:29 PM PDT
by
aMorePerfectUnion
( "I didn't leave the Central Oligarchy Party. It left me." - Ronaldus Maximus)
To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...
> The median probability across 23 bookies is that there is an 83.3 per cent chance the UK will stay together and a 22.2 per cent chance of a split.
Thanks SeekAndFind.
9
posted on
09/17/2014 2:52:59 PM PDT
by
SunkenCiv
(https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
To: SunkenCiv
Doesn’t seem fair that Scot’s serving in the military outside of Scotland are not permitted to vote.
10
posted on
09/17/2014 2:54:41 PM PDT
by
mware
To: mware
Don’t worry. The 16 year olds at home will take up the slack. /s
11
posted on
09/17/2014 3:04:12 PM PDT
by
Jacquerie
(Article V. If not now, when?)
To: mware
Doesnt seem fair that the many thousands living in England cant vote either. Doesnt seem fair that the Scots (8% of the UK population) are voting to destroy the entire country, and the English (85% plus) have no say AT ALL.
12
posted on
09/18/2014 4:26:28 AM PDT
by
Vanders9
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