Will Scotland vote yes: Bookies change their odds on Scottish independence

City AM ^ | 09/17/2014 | by Billy Ehrenberg

[SeekAndFind]

After a few days of relatively small changes, most bookies have changed their odds on a Scottish Yes vote.

Of 23 bookies, only one (Betway) thought it more likely than yesterday that Scotland would vote Yes, while all but two showed odds shortening on a No vote.

By doing some simple maths it is possible to work out the implied percentages, and betting companies have their money firmly on a No vote.

The median probability across 23 bookies is that there is an 83.3 per cent chance the UK will stay together and a 22.2 per cent chance of a split.

This compares to rates of 80 and 26 per cent yesterday.

Here is how the odds have changed their odds regarding a no vote:

And a yes vote:

Here are the latest odds:

CLICK ON ABOVE LINK FOR THE FRAME

The polls are very close, however, with the latest results showing a four-point lead for the no campaign:

The graphic(s) below show every poll that's been conducted this year. In the first chart (invisible on mobile) clicking on any scatter blot will show how people voted in that poll. The bigger and darker the blot, the larger the sample size.

CLICK ON ABOVE LINK FOR THE FRAME

[Henchster]

Bummer. I want to see the socialist Scots separate and run themselves into the ground in record time as an example for all to see. In the mean time, we get the bonus of a more conservative Britain.

THAT's why all the lame stream media is urging "unity."

[prisoner6]

A vote either way is still a vote for socialism. UK socialism, Euro socialism.

[NeoCaveman]

The median probability across 23 bookies is that there is an 83.3 per cent chance the UK will stay together and a 22.2 per cent chance of a split.

They are 105% sure.

OK, I know the 5% is the vig.

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

You’re assuming that Socialists would learn from history...that’s not plausible.

[blackdog]

The bill due and payable would choke this notion of independence right out of their breath. No sense declaring independence from your bank when you're overdrawn by billions. My mortgage company said that is not how it works.

Now if Scotland does a Guernsey turn around, that's an entirely different matter.

[SandRat]

[aMorePerfectUnion]

“Bummer. I want to see the socialist Scots separate and run themselves into the ground in record time as an example for all to see. In the mean time, we get the bonus of a more conservative Britain.
THAT’s why all the lame stream media is urging “unity.”

In the same breath then, you’d best say the “socialist Yankees” to describe our own country.

[SunkenCiv]

> The median probability across 23 bookies is that there is an 83.3 per cent chance the UK will stay together and a 22.2 per cent chance of a split.

Thanks SeekAndFind.

[mware]

Doesn’t seem fair that Scot’s serving in the military outside of Scotland are not permitted to vote.

[Jacquerie]

Don’t worry. The 16 year olds at home will take up the slack. /s

[Vanders9]

Doesnt seem fair that the many thousands living in England cant vote either. Doesnt seem fair that the Scots (8% of the UK population) are voting to destroy the entire country, and the English (85% plus) have no say AT ALL.