Posted on 09/08/2014 11:48:43 AM PDT by mandaladon
Jim Geragthy, acclaimed author and National Reviews chief campaign analyst, has been grousing about the lack of quality polling in key Senate races this year. His frustration is well-founded. So yesterday must have felt like Christmas in September for Jim and political junkies everywhere, as two pollsters released a deluge of surveys covering the most contested races in the country. In light of the results, Id expect that national Republicans are kicking off the week with an extra spring in their step, as well. We were leaked an advance copy of last weeks much-anticipated Politico/GWU Battleground poll, which was packed with more than a few hopeful morsels for conservatives. This weekends polling volley applies those national trends to roughly a dozen contests across the 2014 Senate landscape the contours of which I outlined here. An overview of the fresh data:
Alaska: Accurately polling this state is infamously difficult, but the new New York Times/CBS News/YouGov poll shows a stark reversal in the race, with Republican Dan Sullivan now leading incumbent Sen. Mark Begich by six points 45 to 39, including leaners. The Begich campaign is still reeling from a furious backlash over their desperate TV ad that falsely tied Sullivan to a terrible case involving child rape and a double murder. The family of the victims demanded that Begich pull the ad, with Sullivan slamming the spot for being factually inaccurate. Begich has voted with President Obama 97 percent of the time, according to a Congressional Quarterly analysis.
Arkansas: Three new polls out of this race, one of which Jazz covered yesterday. NBC/Marist finds Republican challenger Tom Cotton leading Sen. Mark Pryor by five points, 45-40, among likely voters. NYT/CBS/YouGov shows Cotton up four (with leaners), 43-39.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Jeanne Shaheen will take care of those damned Progressives! Hurray for you by not sitting there and take it by voting for her! You're my bleepin’ hero!
It’s really hard to tell the difference between the political parties in 2014...
Democrats are in control of California and Republicans are in control of Idaho. I can still see the difference.
Republicans want to open the border.
Democrats want to open the border.
Republicans want to amend Obamacare.
Democrats want to amend Obamacare.
Republicans fight the Tea Party/Conservative grassroots tooth and nail.
Democrats fight the Tea Party/Conservative grassroots tooth and nail.
Republicans aren’t as good at being liberal as Democrats are, but they’ll get their....
Not one dime’s worth of difference. The GOPe will be power sharing. Bet on it.
It COULD happen. That doesn’t mean it will. The American people and expecailly the conservative grass roots needs to make this happen. I’ve been observing elections for a long time. Based on what I know, the ingredients for a massive Democrat defeat are there, but they haven’t been mixed yet.
The next two months may be the most important in decades. From a policy and national future standpoint, nothing matters more than winning this election and winning it huge.
Yeah, and BOY the Libs turned on ole Nate when he started putting out polling data that favored Republicans.
TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED. Democrats will try to win by hook or by crook. A Republican needs to be ahead by at least 5 poll points to overcome voter fraud.
He’s been telling them this for some time now and they still don’t want to believe it. They’ve been calling on Ginsberg to step down so they can replace her before they lose the senate. I think it’s too late for that.
I agree, take nothing for granted.
To Sybeck1: You said that you can’t wait to vote against Cochran; to which I say: “Hell yeah; you go boy.” I hope he starts drooling & sh**ting his pants 2 weeks before Election Day.
Remember all polls oversample dems, so add 5 pts to the Rep and take 5 from the dem do a more accurate result :)
When I looked at the real clear politics ‘no toss-up map’ today, the GOP led in 6 out of 9 toss-ups, giving them a 52-48 edge after the November election.
Please God...
“Democrats are in control of California and Republicans are in control of Idaho. I can still see the difference.”
That’s an excellent point. The GOPe is not conservative enough, but there is still a huge difference between the GOP and Communists.
Lets hope the GOP doesn’t blow it.
Let’s hope they deserve it....
Thom Tillis is a RINO, but I don’t think NC voters will send the female version of Obama back to the Senate. She is probably the worse US senator in Washington, DC.
Incumbents at 39%, has anybody EVER seen this?
Only in Iowa.
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