Posted on 09/08/2014 11:48:43 AM PDT by mandaladon
Jim Geragthy, acclaimed author and National Review’s chief campaign analyst, has been grousing about the lack of quality polling in key Senate races this year. His frustration is well-founded. So yesterday must have felt like Christmas in September for Jim and political junkies everywhere, as two pollsters released a deluge of surveys covering the most contested races in the country. In light of the results, I’d expect that national Republicans are kicking off the week with an extra spring in their step, as well. We were leaked an advance copy of last week’s much-anticipated Politico/GWU Battleground poll, which was packed with more than a few hopeful morsels for conservatives. This weekend’s polling volley applies those national trends to roughly a dozen contests across the 2014 Senate landscape — the contours of which I outlined here. An overview of the fresh data:
Alaska: Accurately polling this state is infamously difficult, but the new New York Times/CBS News/YouGov poll shows a stark reversal in the race, with Republican Dan Sullivan now leading incumbent Sen. Mark Begich by six points — 45 to 39, including leaners. The Begich campaign is still reeling from a furious backlash over their desperate TV ad that falsely tied Sullivan to a terrible case involving child rape and a double murder. The family of the victims demanded that Begich pull the ad, with Sullivan slamming the spot for being factually inaccurate. Begich has voted with President Obama 97 percent of the time, according to a Congressional Quarterly analysis.
Arkansas: Three new polls out of this race, one of which Jazz covered yesterday. NBC/Marist finds Republican challenger Tom Cotton leading Sen. Mark Pryor by five points, 45-40, among likely voters. NYT/CBS/YouGov shows Cotton up four (with leaners), 43-39.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Fingers crossed...
Wondering If the Dems have the boxes of votes to be found ready yet.
“Republican Thom Tillis by a hair” So make sure conservatives VOTE
Want to see the jerk RINOs win that stole their primaries (Cochran race, McConnell race...), but then a LOT more conservatives win to keep them relegated to the back benches, as conservatives take of Speaker/Majority-Leadership.
Just you wait...........
They’ll STILL manage to blow it.
TRADITION, after all, trumps any desire to win.
The election is still two months away. People are just coming back from summer vacation. They will start to pay attention in early October. If the Republicans are leading in 8 seats currently held by Democrats now, it will only get worse for the Democrats (unless the Republicans REALLY screw up). Everything is going against Obama now.
Nothing here about Kansas since the incumbent is not technically a Democrat.
Nothing here about Kansas since the incumbent is not technically a Democrat.
I see no evidence from the R Party that their own party candidates leading in these races provokes any particular enthusiasm, or even much interest.
So, just think, if these candidates were TP types there wouldn’t be just a lack of enthusiasm, but an all out war would ensue against them in an effort to cut them off at the knees.
Is it just me?
ref. #10.
You can bet the union thugs are working their asses off (rare) filling out ballots for November. Lots of overtime.
It's very likely healthcare will again take over the headlines running up to the election unless ISIS lauches a major attack.
While demographic trends favor the Dems in presidential elections, midterm elections are quite different. The electorate in midterm elections is decidedly smaller, older, whiter, more disciplined votes, more conservative, therefore much more Republican than is generally the case in presidential elections. Further, the party out of power tends to gain seats in Congress in midterm elections, this especially the case in the 6th year of an incumbent administration. Consider the following:
In 1958, the sixth year of the Eisenhower Administration, the Democrats scored a huge victory in the midterm elections that year.
In 1966, the sixth year of the JFK-LBJ Administrations, the GOP scored a huge victory in the midterm elections that year.
In 1974, the sixth year of the Nixon-Ford Administrations, the Dems scored a huge victory in the midterm elections that year.
In 1986, the sixth year of the RR Administration, the Dems scored a huge victory in the midterm elections that year.
In 1998, the sixth year of the Clinton Administration, the GOP did not score such a huge victory, primarily because it did so in the 1994 midterm election and there was little left for them to gain that year.
In 2006, the sixth year of the GWB Administration, the Dems scored a huge victory in the midterm election that year.
Polls fluctuate all the time. Historic trends, however, remain relatively constant and do not bode well for the Dems this November, a situation made even worse for them when one considers all of the US Senate seats they must defend this year in red states carried by both McCain and MR and where BHO’s poll ratings are well below the national average.
I’m cautiously optimistic. Democrats seem to be stepping in it again and again this year. They’re the ones making the blunders this time. But we’ll see.
Remember how good the polling looked for the 2012 election?
Goodbye Harry! I can hardly wait to see this a-hole dethroned! It will be nice to see what’s in those house bills that Dirty Harry refuses to bring to a vote.
NC will be close enough that those going third party will throw the race to the D.
The D attack adds have painted Tillis as everything from the Son of Satan to the Grinch who stole Christmas from the teachers.
Liberal Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com shows an even bleaker outcome for the democrats. I don’t think he’s been wrong yet.
Gained I believe 47 House seats, but Hugh Scott, Edward Brooke, Thomas Kuchel, Charles Percy, Howard Baker, Jr., and many others kept the Senate liberal even with its Democrat majority.
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