You Are Not Nearly Scared Enough About Ebola

Foreign Policy Magazine ^ | August 14, 2014 | Laurie Garrett, Senior Fellow for Global Health, CFR

[discostu]

If we’re all scared enough will the cumulative fear stop Ebola? When then what’s the point of getting scared. If it hits the point where it can’t be stopped well then it can’t be stopped. Getting scared ain’t gonna help nothing, except make the last days of your life suck.

[Georgia Girl 2]

So far about 1200 people have died in a land far far away. Every year in the USA 30,000 to 40,000 people die from the everyday flu virus. Every year. Year after year. How scared are you about that?

[Cold Heat]

I’m not very good at statistics, so what I do is to keep a eye on the WHO numbers rather than the local reports with anecdotal information, unless of course there is a new outbreak area.

As I said some days ago, the death rate and the new infection rate had seemed to be stabilizing. I still hold that view.

It seems to me that based on the information early on, we saw a high number of new infections and a what appeared to be low number of deaths, (below 50%) initially, which actually led people to believe that the death rates would be lower than previous outbreaks, leading to other speculations as to the strain.

Over the days and weeks now that followed you see that death rate percentage increasing and following more closely the norms for this strain, (ebola Zaire).

To me, this indicates that the initial rush of new infections has stabilized and the death rate is tracking it as it should and increasing, which should mean that the new infection rate is slowing to match it.

I’m not trying to say it’s over, but it looks to me like the usual process of a slow burnout is beginning to occur. keeping in mind also that it is not in their best interests in terms of financial aid and NGO intervention to say that they feel good about the progress. Not the WHO or the local authorities.

So no, I do not now and never did see this outbreak as jumping the shark and blowing up as a worldwide pandemic.

Unless we see outbreaks traveling the length and breadth of Africa, I will continue to have that opinion.

[Thud]

This is a very useful article. Thank you for posting it.

There seems to be general agreement that Ebola going out of control in Lagos will be the signal to activate escape plans.

Let's hope that doesn't happen for six months, which will hopefully get us within 3-6 months of deployment of an Ebola vaccine.

[metmom]

The thing that could make this a pandemic is the ease of worldwide travel and the possibility of people deliberately infected, deliberately infecting others in closed in, crowded environments, such as malls, airplanes, and subways.

[Jack Hammer]

No problem, Hershel the Vet will handle it.

[Mears]

“That’s why I plan to immediately cut myself off from society and virtually all human contact and live on Walden Pond and kill deer and fish and eat Juniper berries and wild honey.”

---

Walden Pond ain’t what it used to be. :-)

It would be tough avoiding humans there.

.

[driftdiver]

ebola isn’t afraid of a little sunlight. It can also ve reactived after its dried out.

[driftdiver]

How many people were killed by muslims in a land far far away last year? Do you worry about them?

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[SAJ]

Begging your pardon, but describing the sun in Mecca and similar locales as "a little sunlight" is disingenuous at best and laughable at worst. I don't have what amounts to the LD 50 of haemorrhagic viruses in direct sunlight to hand, but I should cheerfully wager that it is less than 3 hours.

Revivifying viruses, while certainly possible, is a chancy business and, please note, requires sophisticated laboratory equipment. Of all the things one might fear in this world, contracting haemorrhagic fever in Mecca or similar climes must be WAY down on the list. Something like #106,572, I imagine.

[redgolum]

That is actually a major concern. If it hits during pilgrimage season, it will be worldwide in a month

[lafroste]

I am trying to construct a rate model now from data gleaned from the CDC website. The data is relatively poor (things like cumulative cases this week lower than cumulative cases last week, an impossibility) pepper the data. I will ping you when I finish and have something to talk about. So far the data is all over the place.

[I want the USA back]

This country has to do what the administration absolutely refuses to do: control who comes into to the country.

[Mrs. Frogjerk]

I just bought some of that. Can you take it every day? It says that you should only take it for up to 12 days on the bottle that I got.

[republicanbred]

There are people who have been taking a daily dose for 20 years or more. There are some great books on the uses of colloidal silver. I would get yourself one. Best stuff ever.

[Veto!]

Got Hot Zone from library. Not exactly looking forward to reading it…

Lifeform, huh? Ancient life forms evolved into lots of other things…where does Ebola think it’s going? What does it want to turn into?

[bravo whiskey]

a virus is a life form and humans are just part of the food chain.

[driftdiver]

Best evidence so far is that it can survive for up to 5 days outside the host. How long it can survive exposes to UV depends on a number of factors. There is a reason they use level 4 precautions and not just UV lights. http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php Public Health Agency of Canada PATHOGEN SAFETY DATA SHEET - INFECTIOUS SUBSTANCES SECTION I - INFECTIOUS AGENT NAME: Ebola virus INFECTIOUS DOSE: 1 - 10 aerosolized organisms are sufficient to cause infection in humans (21). MODE OF TRANSMISSION: In an outbreak, it is hypothesized that the first patient becomes infected as a result of contact with an infected animal (15). Person-to-person transmission occurs via close personal contact with an infected individual or their body fluids during the late stages of infection or after death (1, 2, 15, 27). Nosocomial infections can occur through contact with infected body fluids due to the reuse of unsterilized syringes, needles, or other medical equipment contaminated with these fluids (1, 2). Humans may be infected by handling sick or dead non-human primates and are also at risk when handling the bodies of deceased humans in preparation for funerals, suggesting possible transmission through aerosol droplets (2, 6, 28). In the laboratory, infection through small-particle aerosols has been demonstrated in primates, and airborne spread among humans is strongly suspected, although it has not yet been conclusively demonstrated (1, 6, 13). The importance of this route of transmission is not clear. Poor hygienic conditions can aid the spread of the virus (6). INCUBATION PERIOD: Two to 21 days, more often 4 - 9 days (1, 13, 14). COMMUNICABILITY: Communicable as long as blood, secretions, organs, or semen contain the virus. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen 61 days after the onset of illness, and transmission through semen has occurred 7 weeks after clinical recovery SUSCEPTIBILITY TO DISINFECTANTS: Ebola virus is susceptible to sodium hypochlorite, lipid solvents, phenolic disinfectants, peracetic acid, methyl alcohol, ether, sodium deoxycholate, 2% glutaraldehyde, 0.25% Triton X-100, β-propiolactone, 3% acetic acid (pH 2.5), formaldehyde and paraformaldehyde, and detergents such as SDS (20, 21, 31-34). PHYSICAL INACTIVATION: Ebola are moderately thermolabile and can be inactivated by heating for 30 minutes to 60 minutes at 60ºC, boiling for 5 minutes, gamma irradiation (1.2 x106 rads to 1.27 x106 rads), and/or UV radiation SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation.

[driftdiver]

“Revivifying viruses, while certainly possible, is a chancy business and, please note, requires sophisticated laboratory equipment.”

With ebola it merely requires adding water.