Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

You Are Not Nearly Scared Enough About Ebola
Foreign Policy Magazine ^ | August 14, 2014 | Laurie Garrett, Senior Fellow for Global Health, CFR

Posted on 08/16/2014 1:23:08 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Experimental drugs and airport screenings will do nothing to stop this plague. If Ebola hits Lagos, we're in real trouble.

Attention, World: You just don't get it.

You think there are magic bullets in some rich country's freezers that will instantly stop the relentless spread of the Ebola virus in West Africa? You think airport security guards in Los Angeles can look a traveler in the eyes and see infection, blocking that jet passenger's entry into La-la-land? You believe novelist Dan Brown's utterly absurd description of a World Health Organization that has a private C5-A military transport jet and disease SWAT team that can swoop into outbreaks, saving the world from contagion?

Wake up, fools. What's going on in West Africa now isn't Brown's silly Inferno scenario -- it's Steven Soderbergh's movie Contagion, though without a modicum of its high-tech capacity.

Last week, my brilliant Council on Foreign Relations colleague John Campbell, former U.S. ambassador to Nigeria, warned that spread of the virus inside Lagos -- which has a population of 22 million -- would instantly transform this situation into a worldwide crisis, thanks to the chaos, size, density, and mobility of not only that city but dozens of others in the enormous, oil-rich nation. Add to the Nigerian scenario civil war, national elections, Boko Haram terrorists, and a countrywide doctors' strike -- all of which are real and current -- and you have a scenario so overwrought and frightening that I could not have concocted it even when I advised screenwriter Scott Burns on his Contagion script....

(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: disaese; ebola; epidemic; illness
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-88 next last
To: SAJ
Sorry, it looked fine on preview.

Best evidence so far is that it can survive for up to 5 days outside the host. How long it can survive exposes to UV depends on a number of factors. There is a reason they use level 4 precautions and not just UV lights.

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php

Public Health Agency of Canada

PATHOGEN SAFETY DATA SHEET - INFECTIOUS SUBSTANCES SECTION I

- INFECTIOUS AGENT NAME: Ebola virus

INFECTIOUS DOSE: 1 - 10 aerosolized organisms are sufficient to cause infection in humans (21).

MODE OF TRANSMISSION: In an outbreak, it is hypothesized that the first patient becomes infected as a result of contact with an infected animal (15). Person-to-person transmission occurs via close personal contact with an infected individual or their body fluids during the late stages of infection or after death (1, 2, 15, 27). Nosocomial infections can occur through contact with infected body fluids due to the reuse of unsterilized syringes, needles, or other medical equipment contaminated with these fluids (1, 2). Humans may be infected by handling sick or dead non-human primates and are also at risk when handling the bodies of deceased humans in preparation for funerals, suggesting possible transmission through aerosol droplets (2, 6, 28). In the laboratory, infection through small-particle aerosols has been demonstrated in primates, and airborne spread among humans is strongly suspected, although it has not yet been conclusively demonstrated (1, 6, 13). The importance of this route of transmission is not clear. Poor hygienic conditions can aid the spread of the virus (6).

INCUBATION PERIOD: Two to 21 days, more often 4 - 9 days (1, 13, 14).

COMMUNICABILITY: Communicable as long as blood, secretions, organs, or semen contain the virus. Ebola virus has been isolated from semen 61 days after the onset of illness, and transmission through semen has occurred 7 weeks after clinical recovery

SUSCEPTIBILITY TO DISINFECTANTS: Ebola virus is susceptible to sodium hypochlorite, lipid solvents, phenolic disinfectants, peracetic acid, methyl alcohol, ether, sodium deoxycholate, 2% glutaraldehyde, 0.25% Triton X-100, β-propiolactone, 3% acetic acid (pH 2.5), formaldehyde and paraformaldehyde, and detergents such as SDS (20, 21, 31-34).

PHYSICAL INACTIVATION: Ebola are moderately thermolabile and can be inactivated by heating for 30 minutes to 60 minutes at 60ºC, boiling for 5 minutes, gamma irradiation (1.2 x106 rads to 1.27 x106 rads), and/or UV radiation

SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: The virus can survive in liquid or dried material for a number of days (23). Infectivity is found to be stable at room temperature or at 4°C for several days, and indefinitely stable at -70°C (6, 20). Infectivity can be preserved by lyophilisation.

61 posted on 08/16/2014 1:04:54 PM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: Alamo-Girl

You’re Welcome, Alamo-Girl!


62 posted on 08/16/2014 1:09:50 PM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies]

To: republicanbred

Thanks! I’ll look into finding a book about it. Can you recommend any?


63 posted on 08/16/2014 1:10:23 PM PDT by Mrs. Frogjerk
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 56 | View Replies]

To: driftdiver

Whats that got to do with the fact that about 1200 people in Africa have died from Ebola so far? Its not an epidemic.

Why aren’t you wringing your hands over the 30,000 to 40,000 people that died in the USA last year from the regular flu?

We have enough stuff to panic about on the plate already without getting hysterical over something that is unlikely to occur. I repeat its unlikely to occur.


64 posted on 08/16/2014 1:32:40 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]

To: Georgia Girl 2

It is certainly an epidemic in West Africa. People from Europe and the US travel to and from these locations every day.

The flu primarily effects the very young or the very old. Those in good general health face little risk from the flu as long as they seek proper medical care when appropriate.

In other words your use of the flu as a comparison is a straw man. My house is unlikely to burn down but I still pay my homeowners insurance.


65 posted on 08/16/2014 1:38:15 PM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 64 | View Replies]

To: driftdiver

So you never answered my question. Why are you not hysterical over the significant death rate in the US from the regular flu? That’s a lot closer to “epidemic” than 1200 cases in Africa.

If you are so worried about it buy a bunch of survival food and prepare to shelter in place for 3-4 mos til the Ebola here subsides.

When we get 1200 cases of Ebola here in the US which is not going to happen then it will be something to worry about.

Its a lot more likely that somebody will put the grid down and then half the population will starve to death. Now I do worry about that one. :-)


66 posted on 08/16/2014 1:55:26 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 65 | View Replies]

To: Georgia Girl 2

I didn’t answer because its a stupid question. Nobody is hysterical over ebola. Which by the way is considered one of the most infectious and dangerous viruses on the planet.


67 posted on 08/16/2014 1:58:34 PM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 66 | View Replies]

To: metmom

Ebola does not make a very good weapon.

You tend to run out of carriers as fast as you can infect them and in the western societies, the damage they would do would not be enough.


68 posted on 08/16/2014 2:55:46 PM PDT by Cold Heat (Have you reached your breaking point yet? If not now....then when?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 45 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

bfl


69 posted on 08/16/2014 2:56:32 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy ("Harvey Dent, can we trust him?" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBsdV--kLoQ)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #70 Removed by Moderator

To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Andromeda Strain


71 posted on 08/16/2014 4:20:48 PM PDT by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 70 | View Replies]

To: SAJ; driftdiver

The worry with ebola transmission during the Hajj isn’t it’s survival in sunlight. It’s whether or not an infected person uses the (indoors) communal footbaths.

That scenario could transmit it to literally thousands of people.


72 posted on 08/16/2014 4:22:29 PM PDT by Black Agnes
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 51 | View Replies]

To: Black Agnes

Some of the medical staff who got it in the current outbreak never actually touched the patients. They think they got it by touching something the patient did.


73 posted on 08/16/2014 4:29:09 PM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 72 | View Replies]

Comment #74 Removed by Moderator

To: driftdiver

Well Mr. GG2 agrees with you. He is getting out his Ebola mask and getting it ready. :-)


75 posted on 08/16/2014 4:32:55 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose o f a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 67 | View Replies]

To: Georgia Girl 2

Tell him a mask wont be enough.


76 posted on 08/16/2014 5:02:28 PM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 75 | View Replies]

To: Georgia Girl 2

Read http://learn.flvs.net/educator/common/EnglishIIv10/TheHotZone.pdf

It was posted upthread. Apparently true stories about ebola and its victims.


77 posted on 08/16/2014 5:06:05 PM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 75 | View Replies]

To: driftdiver

That’s entirely believeable. It supposedly survives on surfaces for 3-5 days or more.


78 posted on 08/16/2014 5:10:35 PM PDT by Black Agnes
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 73 | View Replies]

To: driftdiver
Thanks for telling us Ebola virus remains active in dried secretions outside the host for five days, not 23. 23 was the footnote number.

Could you give us a link to the site which says five days?

79 posted on 08/16/2014 6:00:30 PM PDT by Thud
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 61 | View Replies]

To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

My understanding is that the fatal stage of Ebola is more like setting off something like the autoimmune hyper-reaction/cykotine storm of 1918 Flu and smallpox.


80 posted on 08/16/2014 6:02:35 PM PDT by Thud
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 70 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-8081-88 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson