Skip to comments.Putin's Plan for Overturning the European Order
Posted on 04/17/2014 5:32:29 PM PDT by neverdem
Russia's willingness to violate Ukraine's territorial sovereignty is the gravest challenge to the European order in over half a century. The conflict pits a vast nuclear power against a state equal in size to France, an autocratic regime against a revolutionary government. The Russian intervention in Ukraine raises questions about the security guarantees that the West made to Ukraine after the country gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994, and it flies in the face of many Europeans' belief that, in recent years, a continental war has become all but impossible. The end result may be the emergence of a third Russian empire or a failed Ukrainian state at the center of Europe.
Russia's aggression in Ukraine should not be understood as an opportunistic power grab. Rather, it is an attempt to politically, culturally, and militarily resist the West. Russia resorted to military force because it wanted to signal a game change, not because it had no other options. Indeed, it had plenty of other ways to put pressure on Kiev, including through the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol, the Ukrainian city in which the force is based; playing with gas prices; demanding that Ukraine start paying off its government debt to Russia; and drumming up anti-Ukrainian sentiment among Ukraine's sizeable Russian population. Further, senior American figures had already noted that the Ukrainian crisis could not be solved without Russia, and European leaders had expressed their unhappiness about a new (and unfortunate) law that Ukraine's transitional government passed soon after it was formed, which degraded the status of the Russian language. In other words, resorting to force was unnecessary.
It was also dangerous: Ukraine is a big country, and its public, still in a revolutionary mood, is primed to fight for a patriotic cause...
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearworld.com ...
One of the later things I have read is that Putin is promoting pregnancies for more babies born, i.e. the women are being paid for childbirth, and putin was not supporting the homosexual agenda because it harm's Putin's goal, positive population growth.
......”Russia’s aggression in Ukraine should not be understood as an opportunistic power grab. Rather, it is an attempt to politically, culturally, and militarily resist the West”.....
Well now that they’ve spit that out do you think we might get a more level playing field with the “old war” mentality here on FR?...and they aren’t the only ones playing those cards.
When you view the people throughout Ukraine you can see that many of them also carry that mentality....Putin let’s the Russian segment believe this to a point, which is why Crimea went down as it did..... while at the same time Putin plays to Europe/Nato/US that they have been doing by scooping up the Baltics etc. is really the same thing. But you note the media says very little about this as it’s wired to be anti-Russian..it too has many of the Old war mentality.
Did you hear Putins 4 hour q&E?.....Course you have to understand he’s playing to his audiance of course...but dang...he uses no notes and went on for 4 hours answering questions and explaining where he stood and why. I don’t agree with him most of the time...but I do understand where he’s coming from and why.
I don’t think Ukraine will ever be more than what it has been...always a flash point...always in debt as a welfare state...and incapable of handling it’s affairs rightly. Too many crooks even in this next election...and too many on the take.
The only reason we see Nato putting troops etc. in the Baltic states is to set the line clearly to Putin and Assure the states he can go no further...but you note Nato is not surrounding Ukraine's border to protect them....and all other states in the area not with Nato are crying to join....but cannot because they don't meet the Euros conditions nor can they.
Putin pretty much could take Ukraine if he wanted, but he's not going to go that far....he's not about ready to have a land war when he can get what he wants with Ukraine returning back to the neutral position, under Russia influence it previously was...and that is where it will head eventually.
My cat is female. She is a bit prideful (pun intended).
She has no problem killing ‘rats.
and prideful she leaves them on the doorstep rug for me to step in at 4 am when I get up for work and step out for the first smoke of the day
i like the feel of ‘rat guts squishing up between my toes in the morning
Ifn I don’t get back to you sooner HAPPY EASTER
just a rainbow in the dark
I doubt he is personally pro-life, in the sense of valuing human life intrinsically, absent political or demographic reasons, but he is cutting abortions to increase the population as others have said.
Also suggested above:
I was about to add "US weakness / US lack of integrity / US forgetting WHY we have been the global "enforcer" of international order (relatively speaking) for a generation... But then (except for the forgetfulness) that all sort of fits under liberalism if one considers the bigger picture. That's not to say libs won't bomb the daylights out of people, Libya or Serbia being examples.
At any rate, these things cannot be considered in isolation. Radical Islam is probably the lesser threat, but it would be only a moderate problem if European people were not so lib. (The US, due to 911, is somewhat more on guard, tho' with Obambi in charge, that too is now questionable.)
Putin similarly would not be a major threat if it were not for Western weakness, though he does have his act together in a way the Muslims never will. However, it is the long term repercussions outside of Russia, of Russia's new expansionism without firm response from the West, that is truly dangerous.
We have on FR a lot of posters who seem blissfully or willfully ignorant of a crucial question:
In a nuclear age, and keeping the history of human behavior well in mind, what is the practical alternative, for freedom loving Americans, to the US being THE "International Cop"?
Why would he want much of what's left? I could see Donetsk as an independent state; they've seemed quite competent in managing the dissent. But the rest of Ukraine? The best the EU and Russia could hope for is stopping them from starting a world war. Perhaps there's a portion of western Ukraine that would do well with the EU, if they wanted to subsidize them. Any Oblast that doesn't have overwhelming support for one view of the other would just bring headaches. JMHO
But they (Ukraine) did sign it. Repeatedly, through 2009.
Hell, I’d be hesitant too, with Russia as one of the signatories.
I’ll say it again, no disrespect to you personally, but I would not sign any contract with anyone who thinks those Security Assurances to Ukraine are somehow meaningless or should not be honored because it would be difficult. There are fundamental reasons why “honor” matters: In about 20-30 years (very, very roughly) those reasons WILL come back to whatever is left of America, and most likely kill many if not most of us.
Practical alternative is being an HONEST cop, not Bad Lieutenant.The world would appreciate it and many would jump to help.
Do you have any idea how cynical it sounds in translation when the International cop speaks on war on drugs while arming drug cartels and facilitating narcotic crop expansion?
Do you have any idea how cynical it sounds in translation when the International cop speaks on war on terror while aiding and abeting Muslim terrorists to capture one country after another and slaughter Christians?
Do you have any idea how cynical it sounds in translation when the International cop speaks about democracy while staging coups or assassinations of democratically elected leaders?
The crimes committed by the bad cop are so numerous, and so well known, affecting hundreds of millions of people worldwide, that they are riling up the world neighborhood. He is feared and despised, not respected.
Last but not least, this International cop is doing poor job for Americans. Freedom is life without fear, not "just another word for nothing left to lose."
Yes I agree, they did eventually sign it but there is no “Promise” to defend Ukraine Militarily...which is what the Ukraine leaders wanted.
As we see now Ukraine will continue under Russia’s influence...that will not change. What it looks like now is that Russia will influence the nation overall while the EU picks up the debt one way or another...and Ukraine remains neutral between the two.
Well, Putin doesn’t really want Ukraine entire Imo.....it’s a welfare country and likely will take mega years to be free from that debt. But the East and South would be advantageous...and where he’s always concentrated with his navy there...Eastern is the industrial area so could be built up to be self sufficient...which is exactly how Putin sees Crimea in the future.
The rest of Ukraine he’ll likely not touch unless he can take Kiev...but even then I don’t think the entire country is in his view...at least in this round.
IMO, whether we respond militarily is a matter of effectiveness. Conventional boots on the ground in Eastern Ukraine would be unwise. Even Kiev does not quite seem to know who all is loyal or not. But there are many other things we can do to make this a very negative venture for Putin, and also to assist the Ukrainian’s.
As for the Security Assurance(s), in part I agree - by strict legal weasel definition, the U.S. is not mandated by the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances (and follow-ups) to intervene militarily. (IMO, Ukraine should have just done an Israel and flat out rejected such terms, until they got a better deal, or hung onto whatever quantity of nukes they could control. However, they were under very heavy pressure to agree.)
Then again, if Putin were to chop off a part of, say, Latvia, who or what, would actually (immediately) physically compel us to defend Latvia? If we don’t live up to the treaty terms of being a NATO member, who’s going to punish us?
This is why I say the implications are moral, and long term, moral weakness destroys the physical: Not responding effectively to assist Ukraine in defending it’s territorial integrity, when we have the authority from the Budapest Memorandum (among other treaties and agreements) to do so, means no other nation under potential threat can depend on us either. It all becomes a matter of perceived “value of the threatened” at the time, from our end. Others will have to assume they may be on their own. No treaty with the U.S. is worth more than the paper it’s written on, if the U.S. is seen as unreliable.
This is not just a matter of our government, it’s also an assessment of the American people by other governments.
I am not legally obligated to defend my neighbor’s wife, if I see someone attacking her. There is no “promise” or written agreement at all! And I might get myself killed. But in a world where I cannot simply move away, if I do not help, no one would ever trust me again, nor should they, and my life will go accordingly.
As for Ukraine, I think you may be discounting what is wanted by the now clear majority of the people, taken on a national basis. That is, with Crimea gone to Russia, the rest of the country is not going to be electing pro-Russian or even neutral Presidents or Parliament majorities ever again. Even if a neutral gov’t could be elected, given the probable economic environment, a Maydan 3 with real radicals coming to real power would loom in the future.
Nice depressing Janice Joplin lyric. :-)
I’m not arguing that “the cop” is doing a poor job, though there is still more positive than negative at this point. If that was not the case, we’d probably be discussing which of us was going to die from our radiation sickness sooner, and lamenting the 10’s of millions already dead. If we were alive at all, that is.
Also, when it comes to coup’s and such, Hitler was popularly elected too, so such things are not always black and white.
But, yeah, an ethical cop would be better. I’m just saying it’s the height of naivety to think that in a nuclear world you can get away with anything besides a 2-3 superpowers balance, a firm superpowers’ alliance, or 1 superpower + allies clearly dominant, and committed to keeping the rest weakly armed and in line. (I don’t think a true “one world gov’t” is remotely practical or desirable, so I’m leaving that one out.)
Besides I really do believe Nato/Us/Eu are going to protect the Nato country's via a good 'show' ..so that the Nato country's don't get their pants in too tight of a knot.... Imo, and we know how opens go.... it was already determined to let Putin handle the situation if it got out of hand, once they met in Geneva..... Though personally I think it was in the cards Putin would go in and save the day before this whole thing even began to come into view for the audiance..... His “cut” of the pie was Crimea.
Trouble is they misjudged the citizens of Ukraine..and the Russians within as well...not to mention the Nazi element and fringe groups. (Nation leaders always figure they can control the situation with the least carnage possible.)
Your see many of those leading the groups can't even control their own...so everybody has to keep picking up the pieces and blame someone else when someone is killed, kidnapped or thugged up. It's chaos there because in reality Ukraine is generally just that without enough thugs in their Government to keep the peace.
Further they don't understand negotiations let alone democracy and what that means or entails....Heck when Kiev Gov. sent their so called Anti-terrorist thugs to Donestk the first thing they asked the Gen. leading them was...who was he calling terrorists?..... and the first thing the people in Donestk asked was,..."who are you calling the terrorists"...he wouldn't/couldn't answer...so they went after him and roughed him up...Then trying to escape he finally was able to slip through an exit door that his team had made for him, ( he wouldn't go over the fence to escape because "he was a General"... and then of course “Like a good politician” ,knowing it was filmed, waved and smiled to the crowd as he escaped their clutches. (that whole event is on video)
That was just one incident of the mindset in Ukraine, and it ebbs and flows like a yo-yo on a string.
So you see Ukraine really cannot Govern their people without a stronger and wiser hand...they simply aren't ready for that. Their only options have been the same Oligarchs which keep robbing them of ever getting on their feet. The EU and the US see that now, and did early on when they attempted to guide the protesters and what happened?...many died and they burned down their city square and several buildings.
Putin's 'advantage' is he knows well the people....unlike the Eu and US. Russia's dealt with them for centuries so he has a pretty good idea how to handle them. ...he knows they are a highly emotional lot, and in fact addressed that in his Q&E directly.
I'm not sure the EU/US even cared to understand the nature of the people before stirring this nest....or if they did were willing to take the risk.
Putin's going to come out the hero in this....he'll be the one to calm the waters in the end...and the journalists will keep writing the stories about what a thug Putin is....but the truth is we looked like idiots, because that is what we have governing our country...and the EU isn't much better if that. How far Putin can go is pretty much as far as he wants... how far he will choose to go remains to be seen...but I doubt he'll ruin his revenue flows for the sake of taking on another welfare state, anymore than the EU/Nato was willing to add another one to their failing states already putting a drag on their "Kingdom".
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