Yes I agree, they did eventually sign it but there is no “Promise” to defend Ukraine Militarily...which is what the Ukraine leaders wanted.
As we see now Ukraine will continue under Russia’s influence...that will not change. What it looks like now is that Russia will influence the nation overall while the EU picks up the debt one way or another...and Ukraine remains neutral between the two.
IMO, whether we respond militarily is a matter of effectiveness. Conventional boots on the ground in Eastern Ukraine would be unwise. Even Kiev does not quite seem to know who all is loyal or not. But there are many other things we can do to make this a very negative venture for Putin, and also to assist the Ukrainian’s.
As for the Security Assurance(s), in part I agree - by strict legal weasel definition, the U.S. is not mandated by the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances (and follow-ups) to intervene militarily. (IMO, Ukraine should have just done an Israel and flat out rejected such terms, until they got a better deal, or hung onto whatever quantity of nukes they could control. However, they were under very heavy pressure to agree.)
Then again, if Putin were to chop off a part of, say, Latvia, who or what, would actually (immediately) physically compel us to defend Latvia? If we don’t live up to the treaty terms of being a NATO member, who’s going to punish us?
This is why I say the implications are moral, and long term, moral weakness destroys the physical: Not responding effectively to assist Ukraine in defending it’s territorial integrity, when we have the authority from the Budapest Memorandum (among other treaties and agreements) to do so, means no other nation under potential threat can depend on us either. It all becomes a matter of perceived “value of the threatened” at the time, from our end. Others will have to assume they may be on their own. No treaty with the U.S. is worth more than the paper it’s written on, if the U.S. is seen as unreliable.
This is not just a matter of our government, it’s also an assessment of the American people by other governments.
I am not legally obligated to defend my neighbor’s wife, if I see someone attacking her. There is no “promise” or written agreement at all! And I might get myself killed. But in a world where I cannot simply move away, if I do not help, no one would ever trust me again, nor should they, and my life will go accordingly.
As for Ukraine, I think you may be discounting what is wanted by the now clear majority of the people, taken on a national basis. That is, with Crimea gone to Russia, the rest of the country is not going to be electing pro-Russian or even neutral Presidents or Parliament majorities ever again. Even if a neutral gov’t could be elected, given the probable economic environment, a Maydan 3 with real radicals coming to real power would loom in the future.