Skip to comments.Gallup explains what went wrong in 2012 (Obama won?)
Posted on 06/05/2013 11:45:14 AM PDT by Seizethecarp
The Gallup Polls misfire in the 2012 election was caused by a variety of defects in the way the firm conducts surveys, according to the organizations top pollster, who provided the most detailed explanation to date of how the firm plans to improve their polling accuracy in future elections.
The four factors he listed:
1. Likely voter model shifted too far toward Romney
While most likely voter models improved Romneys 2012 standing, Gallups resulted in a larger-than-average four-point shift. In particular, the finding mirrors problems in the 2008 New Hampshire primary, when Gallups likely voter model produced larger errors than un-adjusted data, according to a report by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
2. Too many whites
Gallups pre-election surveys contained too many whites among the base sample of American adults and too few Hispanics and African Americans, a bias that had the potential for great impact given deep racial voting divisions.
3. Sub-regional swings
Gallups final pre-election polls overrepresented voters in regions where Romney performed better.
4. Secret landline phones
Gallup, like other pollsters, calls both landline and cellular phones in surveys to ensure nearly all Americans have a chance at participating. But in 2011, Gallup decided to begin only calling landline phone numbers listed in public directories, a practice that costs less, believing that people with unlisted landline phones could still be reached via cellular phones. But an experiment conducted this spring found that this method produced a sample that was older, less Democratic and less likely to approve of President Obama. As a result, Gallup plans return to calling both listed and unlisted landline numbers.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
They forgot to account for massive fraud, felonies, and assorted ethical and moral lapses on the part of the libturds.
“2. Too many whites “
Yeh too many whites sat home.
The ONLY people responsible for the suppression of GOP and conservative voters are the inside-the-beltway GOP elites who did everything they could to promote a liberal RINO who was unable to inspire the conservative base.
Gallup’s problem is that they only count live voters.
And here we are 8 months later and where is the stupid party on this or any other issue? Out to lunch.
One cannot poll a stolen election.
Excuses, excuses Romney lost because he wasn’t Conservative enough.
Black turnout in 2012 was 13% of the electorate. The black percentage of the US population is 13%. In 2008, Obama got 95% of the black vote. In 2012 he got 93% of the black vote.
Where Obama increased his 2012 performance was among Latino voters, 67% in 2008 up to 71% for Obama in 2012 and Asian-American voters, 62% in 2008 up to 73% for Obama in 2012.
“Gallup was wrong because they were unaware of the Ubama administration’s use of the IRS to suppress conservative turnout.”
I still say the election was stolen by all kinds of fraud.
And Myth never said a word. It would have been ungentlemanly.
You and I agree on something: Romney is too darn nice!!! I mean - where is the outrage?????
They undersampled the dead, and oversampled the informed.
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