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Gallup explains what went wrong in 2012 (Obama won?)
Washington Post ^ | June 4, 2013 | Scott Clement

Posted on 06/05/2013 11:45:14 AM PDT by Seizethecarp

The Gallup Poll’s misfire in the 2012 election was caused by a variety of defects in the way the firm conducts surveys, according to the organization’s top pollster, who provided the most detailed explanation to date of how the firm plans to improve their polling accuracy in future elections.

The four factors he listed:

1. Likely voter model shifted too far toward Romney

While most likely voter models improved Romney’s 2012 standing, Gallup’s resulted in a larger-than-average four-point shift. In particular, the finding mirrors problems in the 2008 New Hampshire primary, when Gallup’s likely voter model produced larger errors than un-adjusted data, according to a report by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

2. Too many whites

Gallup’s pre-election surveys contained too many whites among the base sample of American adults and too few Hispanics and African Americans, a bias that had the potential for great impact given deep racial voting divisions.

3. Sub-regional swings

Gallup’s final pre-election polls overrepresented voters in regions where Romney performed better.

4. Secret landline phones

Gallup, like other pollsters, calls both landline and cellular phones in surveys to ensure nearly all Americans have a chance at participating. But in 2011, Gallup decided to begin only calling landline phone numbers listed in public directories, a practice that costs less, believing that people with unlisted landline phones could still be reached via cellular phones. But an experiment conducted this spring found that this method produced a sample that was older, less Democratic and less likely to approve of President Obama. As a result, Gallup plans return to calling both listed and unlisted landline numbers.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bho2012; gallup; obama; polling; romney; romney2012
Gee...do you think that "secretly" reverting back to only calling landlines might result in underrepresenting Obama-phone minority voters and the young?
1 posted on 06/05/2013 11:45:14 AM PDT by Seizethecarp
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To: Seizethecarp

I hope folks that claim polls are always so accurate, keep this article handy.

I think polls are purposefully gamed for political advantage.


2 posted on 06/05/2013 11:48:37 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Funny thing happened on the way to the Constitution burning, Lefties rights were Iviolated...)
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To: Seizethecarp

It also oversampled gay voters ~


3 posted on 06/05/2013 11:48:51 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Seizethecarp

Given what we are finding out about the IRS...there is a serious question of voter suppression on the part of the administration’s bureaucracy.

You know how the Dems kept complaining about GOP “suppression” of blacks and Hispanics...we now know they were projecting. Saying we were doing what they had planned to do all along.


4 posted on 06/05/2013 11:49:54 AM PDT by kjo (+)
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To: Seizethecarp

100+% voter turnout out voting 98.9% for Obama might have had something to do with it.

Voter suppression might’ve had something to do with it.

Media rigged debates where the “moderators” lie on behalf of Obama might’ve had something to do with it.

But no, clearly Obama has a man-date.


5 posted on 06/05/2013 11:50:37 AM PDT by a fool in paradise (America 2013 - STUCK ON STUPID)
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To: Seizethecarp

They didn’t factor in the 148% voter turnout in Wood County and 108% turnout in Cuyahoga County in Ohio? Huh? Or that the voter fraud in the U.S. was rampant? Huh?


6 posted on 06/05/2013 11:50:42 AM PDT by laweeks
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To: Seizethecarp
Obama stole the election.
Someone once commented: First watch 8 minutes 16 seconds of video titled Romney defeated Obama - if not for voter fraud.

Then ... read and think about this.
7 posted on 06/05/2013 11:51:00 AM PDT by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
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To: Seizethecarp

What went wrong in 2012? Philadelphia, Chicago, NY City, Milwaukee, Camden.

Between people voting twice and the dead getting a vote, it was surprising Romney got that close.

We should purge voter rolls every 10 years and have people reapply. Guarantee that Democrats will never win another national election.


8 posted on 06/05/2013 11:51:46 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (The reason we own guns is to protect ourselves from those wanting to take our guns from us.)
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To: Seizethecarp

“We made a mistake. We need to ‘move on’ and we promise to ‘fix’ it in the future. “


9 posted on 06/05/2013 11:52:19 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The monsters are due on Maple Street)
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To: Yosemitest

No explanation needed. THE FOREIGNER was the most surprised socialist in the regime when he finally realized his VOTER FRAUD was working. He had expression on his face just like OJ when his not guilty verdict was returned by the jury.


10 posted on 06/05/2013 11:54:38 AM PDT by spawn44 (moo)
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To: Seizethecarp
Gallup was wrong because they were unaware of the Ubama administration's use of the IRS to suppress conservative turnout.
11 posted on 06/05/2013 11:56:03 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("Forget it, Jake. It's Eric Holder's people.")
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To: DoughtyOne
I think polls are purposefully gamed for political advantage.

Yeah, but only to rig the voting.

12 posted on 06/05/2013 11:56:49 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The monsters are due on Maple Street)
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To: Seizethecarp
"Gallup’s final pre-election polls overrepresented voters in regions where Romney performed better."

Also, Gallup’s final pre-election polls underrepresented voters in regions where Obama performed much better, like Chicago and other big-city cemeteries, and in Demonrat-controlled precincts where Traitorobamanites were given multiple ballots or the voting machines were rigged to record only Demonrat votes.

13 posted on 06/05/2013 11:57:21 AM PDT by Carl Vehse
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To: Seizethecarp

It very hard to interview (poll) dead voters,


14 posted on 06/05/2013 12:02:14 PM PDT by Phyto Chems (Protect the border, NOW. The government needs to do one thing FIRST - CLOSE the Border)
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To: kjo
Given what we are finding out about the IRS...

You should be more worried about the unholy alliance of Google and the democrat party. They were able to determine every voters like and dislikes, they tailored their message to fit that individual. They knew what TV shows every voter watched, so they were able to place adds at the most favorable time and place.

We live in a different world and the GOPe have no clue how to deal with this new political/data service alliance.

FOX did a special on this a couple weeks back but I guess no one watched it, because I never saw it mentioned here.

15 posted on 06/05/2013 12:05:12 PM PDT by itsahoot (It is not so much that history repeats, but that human nature does not change.)
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To: Seizethecarp

We lost because Romney was a mealy mouthed RINO like Dole, Bush I, McCain, and others like him! I assume we’re going to lose all future elections to the socialist-minority-single mom, welfare-sucking super coalition. Let’s lose in style and nominate a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul or Allen West!


16 posted on 06/05/2013 12:06:40 PM PDT by 2nd Amendment (Proud member of the 48% . . giver not a taker)
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To: Yosemitest

That video is worth watching. One thing is for sure, earlier voters are almost all conservative.


17 posted on 06/05/2013 12:07:29 PM PDT by ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton (Go Egypt on 0bama)
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To: Seizethecarp
"Gallup explains what went wrong in 2012"

It's actually very simple. Because of the economy, and overall disenchantment with Obama, turnout was forecast to be significantly lower in '12 than in '08. Surveys revealed the dissatisfaction to be lower across the board, including inner city blacks.

Said disenchantment was reflected in the turnout across the board, EXCEPT for inner city blacks. The turnout for inner city blacks was slightly higher overall than in '08. Had turnout tracked with the lack of satisfaction, as it always has in prior years, Romney would have won a narrow 51-49 victory and carried those critical states like Ohio, Virginia, and others.

How else can you explain why Obama won a 51-48 margin, and held onto the Senate, while the House of Representatives remained overwhelmingly GOP? Because huge margins in the handful of inner city districts can carry state elections, including the Presidential election, but not local elections. The GOP had only 47% of the popular vote for the House but won 53% of the seats.

We lost a turnout game, pure and simple. The Obama team dragged inner city blacks to the polls. Sure, they also did their share of ballot box stuffing and dead people voting, but that won't delivery more than 0.5% of the votes statewide.

At the same time, the constituencies that we hold dear -- did nothing similar. We should have been dragging dispirited evangelical Christians to the polls in the suburbs, along with rural whites and others. But the GOP had its typical laissez-faire approach and, therefore, we lost.

18 posted on 06/05/2013 12:08:58 PM PDT by tom h
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To: spawn44
We could have 100 percent of the vote in 2014 and we'll still lose.
Why?
Let us remember ...

19 posted on 06/05/2013 12:11:24 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
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To: UCANSEE2

I do think the polls are rigged to motivate and discourage. Swinging enthusiasm and participation by a few percentage points works.


20 posted on 06/05/2013 12:12:00 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Funny thing happened on the way to the Constitution burning, Lefties rights were Iviolated...)
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To: ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton
Be sure to check out the links in commet #19.
21 posted on 06/05/2013 12:13:52 PM PDT by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
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To: Seizethecarp

They forgot to account for massive fraud, felonies, and assorted ethical and moral lapses on the part of the libturds.


22 posted on 06/05/2013 12:43:40 PM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: Seizethecarp

“2. Too many whites “

Yeh too many whites sat home.


23 posted on 06/05/2013 12:50:41 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: kjo
Given what we are finding out about the IRS...there is a serious question of voter suppression on the part of the administration’s bureaucracy.

The ONLY people responsible for the suppression of GOP and conservative voters are the inside-the-beltway GOP elites who did everything they could to promote a liberal RINO who was unable to inspire the conservative base.

24 posted on 06/05/2013 1:12:40 PM PDT by Labyrinthos
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To: Labyrinthos

Gallup’s problem is that they only count live voters.


25 posted on 06/05/2013 1:31:55 PM PDT by aimhigh (Guns do not kill people. Abortion kills people.)
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To: spawn44

And here we are 8 months later and where is the stupid party on this or any other issue? Out to lunch.


26 posted on 06/05/2013 1:33:38 PM PDT by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: Seizethecarp

One cannot poll a stolen election.

LLS


27 posted on 06/05/2013 1:40:42 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS!)
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To: Seizethecarp

Excuses, excuses Romney lost because he wasn’t Conservative enough.


28 posted on 06/06/2013 5:15:49 AM PDT by 2001convSVT (Going Galt as fast as I can.)
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To: Seizethecarp
2. Too many whites

Gallup’s pre-election surveys contained too many whites among the base sample of American adults and too few Hispanics and African Americans, a bias that had the potential for great impact given deep racial voting divisions.


This one is of particular concern, given that 2012 might have been a racial-turnout anomaly involving the reelection of a Black President.

Gallup and other polling organizations are going to have to take a guess as to whether the exceptionally high turnout of Blacks is going to persist for future elections, both Presidentials and mid-terms. We might see - likely will see - an overcompensation in future polls that oversamples Blacks relative to actual election day turnout. Skewing pre-election numbers in favor of Democrats.
29 posted on 06/06/2013 5:36:22 AM PDT by tanknetter
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To: tanknetter

Black turnout in 2012 was 13% of the electorate. The black percentage of the US population is 13%. In 2008, Obama got 95% of the black vote. In 2012 he got 93% of the black vote.
Where Obama increased his 2012 performance was among Latino voters, 67% in 2008 up to 71% for Obama in 2012 and Asian-American voters, 62% in 2008 up to 73% for Obama in 2012.


30 posted on 06/06/2013 2:59:16 PM PDT by Nero Germanicus
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

“Gallup was wrong because they were unaware of the Ubama administration’s use of the IRS to suppress conservative turnout.”

I still say the election was stolen by all kinds of fraud.


31 posted on 06/08/2013 7:15:14 PM PDT by District13 (I miss my country!)
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To: District13
I still say the election was stolen by all kinds of fraud.

And Myth never said a word. It would have been ungentlemanly.

32 posted on 06/09/2013 7:49:52 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("Forget it, Jake. It's Eric Holder's people.")
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

You and I agree on something: Romney is too darn nice!!! I mean - where is the outrage?????


33 posted on 06/09/2013 7:58:16 AM PDT by District13 (I miss my country!)
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To: Seizethecarp

They undersampled the dead, and oversampled the informed.


34 posted on 06/09/2013 8:04:01 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (Cogito, ergo armatum sum.)
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