Skip to comments.Gallup explains what went wrong in 2012 (Obama won?)
Posted on 06/05/2013 11:45:14 AM PDT by Seizethecarp
The Gallup Polls misfire in the 2012 election was caused by a variety of defects in the way the firm conducts surveys, according to the organizations top pollster, who provided the most detailed explanation to date of how the firm plans to improve their polling accuracy in future elections.
The four factors he listed:
1. Likely voter model shifted too far toward Romney
While most likely voter models improved Romneys 2012 standing, Gallups resulted in a larger-than-average four-point shift. In particular, the finding mirrors problems in the 2008 New Hampshire primary, when Gallups likely voter model produced larger errors than un-adjusted data, according to a report by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.
2. Too many whites
Gallups pre-election surveys contained too many whites among the base sample of American adults and too few Hispanics and African Americans, a bias that had the potential for great impact given deep racial voting divisions.
3. Sub-regional swings
Gallups final pre-election polls overrepresented voters in regions where Romney performed better.
4. Secret landline phones
Gallup, like other pollsters, calls both landline and cellular phones in surveys to ensure nearly all Americans have a chance at participating. But in 2011, Gallup decided to begin only calling landline phone numbers listed in public directories, a practice that costs less, believing that people with unlisted landline phones could still be reached via cellular phones. But an experiment conducted this spring found that this method produced a sample that was older, less Democratic and less likely to approve of President Obama. As a result, Gallup plans return to calling both listed and unlisted landline numbers.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
I hope folks that claim polls are always so accurate, keep this article handy.
I think polls are purposefully gamed for political advantage.
It also oversampled gay voters ~
Given what we are finding out about the IRS...there is a serious question of voter suppression on the part of the administration’s bureaucracy.
You know how the Dems kept complaining about GOP “suppression” of blacks and Hispanics...we now know they were projecting. Saying we were doing what they had planned to do all along.
100+% voter turnout out voting 98.9% for Obama might have had something to do with it.
Voter suppression might’ve had something to do with it.
Media rigged debates where the “moderators” lie on behalf of Obama might’ve had something to do with it.
But no, clearly Obama has a man-date.
They didn’t factor in the 148% voter turnout in Wood County and 108% turnout in Cuyahoga County in Ohio? Huh? Or that the voter fraud in the U.S. was rampant? Huh?
What went wrong in 2012? Philadelphia, Chicago, NY City, Milwaukee, Camden.
Between people voting twice and the dead getting a vote, it was surprising Romney got that close.
We should purge voter rolls every 10 years and have people reapply. Guarantee that Democrats will never win another national election.
“We made a mistake. We need to ‘move on’ and we promise to ‘fix’ it in the future. “
No explanation needed. THE FOREIGNER was the most surprised socialist in the regime when he finally realized his VOTER FRAUD was working. He had expression on his face just like OJ when his not guilty verdict was returned by the jury.
Yeah, but only to rig the voting.
Also, Gallups final pre-election polls underrepresented voters in regions where Obama performed much better, like Chicago and other big-city cemeteries, and in Demonrat-controlled precincts where Traitorobamanites were given multiple ballots or the voting machines were rigged to record only Demonrat votes.
It very hard to interview (poll) dead voters,
You should be more worried about the unholy alliance of Google and the democrat party. They were able to determine every voters like and dislikes, they tailored their message to fit that individual. They knew what TV shows every voter watched, so they were able to place adds at the most favorable time and place.
We live in a different world and the GOPe have no clue how to deal with this new political/data service alliance.
FOX did a special on this a couple weeks back but I guess no one watched it, because I never saw it mentioned here.
We lost because Romney was a mealy mouthed RINO like Dole, Bush I, McCain, and others like him! I assume we’re going to lose all future elections to the socialist-minority-single mom, welfare-sucking super coalition. Let’s lose in style and nominate a Ted Cruz or Rand Paul or Allen West!
That video is worth watching. One thing is for sure, earlier voters are almost all conservative.
It's actually very simple. Because of the economy, and overall disenchantment with Obama, turnout was forecast to be significantly lower in '12 than in '08. Surveys revealed the dissatisfaction to be lower across the board, including inner city blacks.
Said disenchantment was reflected in the turnout across the board, EXCEPT for inner city blacks. The turnout for inner city blacks was slightly higher overall than in '08. Had turnout tracked with the lack of satisfaction, as it always has in prior years, Romney would have won a narrow 51-49 victory and carried those critical states like Ohio, Virginia, and others.
How else can you explain why Obama won a 51-48 margin, and held onto the Senate, while the House of Representatives remained overwhelmingly GOP? Because huge margins in the handful of inner city districts can carry state elections, including the Presidential election, but not local elections. The GOP had only 47% of the popular vote for the House but won 53% of the seats.
We lost a turnout game, pure and simple. The Obama team dragged inner city blacks to the polls. Sure, they also did their share of ballot box stuffing and dead people voting, but that won't delivery more than 0.5% of the votes statewide.
At the same time, the constituencies that we hold dear -- did nothing similar. We should have been dragging dispirited evangelical Christians to the polls in the suburbs, along with rural whites and others. But the GOP had its typical laissez-faire approach and, therefore, we lost.
I do think the polls are rigged to motivate and discourage. Swinging enthusiasm and participation by a few percentage points works.
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