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Dems' winning strategy: Early voting + bribes = Obama victory (vanity)
an illegal 100 watt lightbulb popping on in my head | November 8, 2012 | me

Posted on 11/08/2012 10:53:59 AM PST by shhrubbery!

Here is the full equation:

early voting
+ bribes*
+ Dems busing their bribees to vote early
Obama victory

* bribes =

(1) Obama's unconstitutional gift to 800,000 illegal immigrants last June
(2) beer & pizza parties on college campuses + rides to the polls
(3) the usual Dem GOTV "walking around money" that gets spread around in urban areas every election


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2012dncstrategy; bho2012; democrats; election; obama; strategy
Most post-election analysis has focused on demographic problems for conservatives, rightly so.

But it is starting to become clear that it was really the Dems' superior "ground game" that beat us this year.

Here is my reasoning:
Despite admirable GOTV efforts on the part of many volunteers, our side put less effort into our ground game than did the Dems.
We assumed that conservatives and "broken glass Republicans" would to come out to vote in record numbers on election day, Nov 6.

And conversely, we'd expected dampened enthusiasm for Obama amongst previous strong supporters, e.g. college students and black Christians.

Our assumption about dampened support for Obama turned out to be correct. 2012 election statistics now show that the 2012 vote total for Obama from college students was down, compared to 2008.
Similarly, the vote total for Obama from Hispanics was also down.
In fact, it appears that Obama lost votes from almost all sectors of his base, compared to 2008.

So it turns out that voter enthusiasm for Obama WAS, in fact, dampened.

Then how did Dems manage to get enough votes from these more lukewarm members of their base?

The answer, I believe, is indicated in the equation above.
Note that an essential part of the Dems' ground game success is their manipulation of the opportunity for "early voting." Dems now use this extra time to stuning advantage; their GOTV teams in some states were able to bribe/bus their supporters to the polls weeks ahead of election day.

We, on the other hand, relied to a greater degree on our base's preference for voting on traditional election day. When our turnout fell short of expectations, we had no time to try to rectify the situation.

MORAL OF THE STORY:
The "early voting" phenomenon is not going to go away. If we are to be successful in presidential elections, ever again, we are going to have to emulate the Dems' ground game.
No, that does not mean we will bribe voters like Dems do. But we will have to put much more effort and $ into getting our voters to the polls early.

1 posted on 11/08/2012 10:54:13 AM PST by shhrubbery!
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To: shhrubbery!
The "early voting" phenomenon is not going to go away. If we are to be successful in presidential elections, ever again, we are going to have to emulate the Dems' ground game.

This is true. While I do think demographics (mostly Hispanics) and how enormously unpopular Republicans are now with the younger, more libertine, generations is still a big part of our problem, we also have to find a way to emulate the Democrat early voting effort and overall ground game.

2 posted on 11/08/2012 10:59:25 AM PST by Longbow1969
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To: shhrubbery!

Look, Obama came in with no ID out of no where. He became President in not one but two identical elections which is near impossible to do. Cheating, lies, fraud, smearing and stealing is his MO. I say don’t allow him to take office for his second term and charge him with treason.


3 posted on 11/08/2012 11:01:03 AM PST by freekitty (Give me back my conservative vote; then find me a real conservative to vote for)
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To: shhrubbery!

yes the dems had a strong ground game and used dirty tactics to bribe voters, however the over-riding reason why the GOP lost was because they lack a backbone and allowed the left to paint them as mean devisive, obstructionists who want ot deny women health care and htrow granny over the cliff- they were very successful at this and hte gop ALLOWED them to do this to them without lifting a figner to fight back agaisnt the left- The left LIED and NOONE called them to the carpet for it- Noone! Someone like Mark Levine if he were to run woudl have NEVER allowed the left to misrepresent him so dramatically andh e would not have let them get away with hteir dirty tactics- the GOP apparently has becoem incapable of effectively defendign htemselves agaisnt the false accusations of the left- and it’s proven very effective tactic of the left in winning elections-


4 posted on 11/08/2012 11:01:40 AM PST by CottShop (Scientific belief does not constitute scientific evidence, nor does it convey scientific knowledge)
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To: Longbow1969
3 Million GOP Voters didn't vote that didn't help.

Why not hire some Students to register college kids

My daughter said her campus had Obama tent to register voters and never saw a Romney tent

5 posted on 11/08/2012 11:03:27 AM PST by scooby321 (AMS)
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To: freekitty

check my profile page as i;ve listed a few incidents which do not add up.
4 years of planning by Holder, the corrupt Chicago machine and trust me where I ma there are many and I mean many whoare saying they do not trust this result and something is not right.


6 posted on 11/08/2012 11:04:24 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: CottShop
Exactly WHO is going to "call them on the carpet"? They've got the unions, students, minorities, and the mainstream media in their pockets.

The only solution is when America goes broke, and they have no more goodies to give away. Only then will the tides turn, but it'll probably be too late.
7 posted on 11/08/2012 11:06:41 AM PST by FrankR (They will become our ultimate masters the day we surrender the 2nd Amendment.)
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To: Longbow1969; SoftwareEngineer; LS; Ravi; tatown; fieldmarshaldj; GOPsterinMA; Impy

I don’t have the numbers to back it up, but I am wonder if OFA won this election by actually shrinking the battlefield instead of expanding it. In contrast to 04 and 08, there will little campaign activity where I live in NoVa.


8 posted on 11/08/2012 11:08:22 AM PST by Perdogg
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To: shhrubbery!

On of the things we learned in Viet Nam is that a DMZ only gets US killed and keep US from winning the war. In Iraq/Afghanistan, if you only get to return fire if/when you are being directly fired upon, we are sitting ducks to take the first round each and every time. You see, whenever there are UNEQUAL rules of engagement, the side willing and able to do the absolute most damage will win every time.

We as Republicans tend to be honest, fair minded, moral, rule followers. We are at war for the heart and soul of this country against an enemy that has NO such scruples.

Now I have heard people say that if you have to win by breaking the rules, it makes the winning a hypocrisy. OK, so we follow the rules scrupulously and DON’T win -— what did that get us in the long run besides further down the road to socialism.

The winner gets to make AND enforce the rules. The only way the rules mean anything at all is if WE actually WIN -— because we all know that they are going to turn a blind eye to any and every rule and win by every means possible.

So, we need to adopt their playbook: buy pizza, give away cigarettes and beer, pay someone at the senior centers to “help” the seniors vote, etc.

Do we really WANT to WIN, or do we want to pat ourselves on the back for doing the right thing as they load us on the cattle cars???


9 posted on 11/08/2012 11:09:55 AM PST by LTC.Ret (You'd think I would know better than to volunteer!!! www.sendmetocongress.us)
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To: CottShop
Agree this was infuriating.

Obama's campaign started their "kill Romney" strategy early -- even before our nominee was selected. They especially focused on Ohio with their poisonous lies about Romney.

Meanwhile, Romney was still fighting in the primaries and could not spend campaign money rebutting these ads.

I'm not sure what can be done about this dirty Dem tactic, unless outside groups (like PACs) are willing to spend their $ on ads of their own, to counteract the Dems' outrageous lies.

10 posted on 11/08/2012 11:13:42 AM PST by shhrubbery! (NIH!)
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To: scooby321
My daughter said her campus had Obama tent to register voters and never saw a Romney tent

While campuses have always been somewhat liberal, there was, once upon a time, a silent majority of traditional families kids that attended those schools too - and many would vote Republican if they were registered. I am not so sure there are that many now. It is almost frightening how profoundly unpopular the conservative message is now on college and university campuses. Again, young people and educators have always been somewhat liberal, but nowadays the younger generations seem to feel they have nothing in common with conservatives. These younger people are vastly more libertine in outlook than even the "do what ever feels good" hippies of the 60's. Worse, they are now in a habit of voting Democrat and voting habits are hard to break.

My guess is Republicans are afraid to register on most campuses because they figure most of the kids will end up voting Democrat.

11 posted on 11/08/2012 11:22:10 AM PST by Longbow1969
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To: scooby321
Why not hire some Students to register college kids

We need to not only register college kids, but educate them.

I.e. we have to find ways to get the ideas of constitutionalist conservatives to them, to counteract the Leftist indoctrination they get on almost all campuses.

How do we do get this information into their hands, and minds? This is a huge challenge. Any free publications that we might try to leave in campus locations (e.g. The Heritage Foundation's excellent little books) will likely be confiscated (and burned).

Social media? Ok, but how do we get them to take a look? You can lead a horse to water...

12 posted on 11/08/2012 11:23:07 AM PST by shhrubbery! (NIH!)
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To: LTC.Ret
So, we need to adopt their playbook: buy pizza, give away cigarettes and beer

Pizza and beer sounds good. Let's skip the cigarettes (even though the Dems hand them out as bribes in urban areas).

13 posted on 11/08/2012 11:26:46 AM PST by shhrubbery! (NIH!)
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To: Perdogg

I don’t know how many counties in OH did this, but Montgomery introduced a consolidation of the voting precincts that made 500+ locations into 350. In my precinct 4 precincts were combined into 1, reducing the # of workers from 8 to 2 and that led to the lines, not turnout. No one prepared us for this.


14 posted on 11/08/2012 11:32:14 AM PST by LS ('Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually.' Hendrix)
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To: LTC.Ret
“On of the things we learned in Viet Nam is that a DMZ only gets US killed and keep US from winning the war. In Iraq/Afghanistan, if you only get to return fire if/when you are being directly fired upon, we are sitting ducks to take the first round each and every time. You see, whenever there are UNEQUAL rules of engagement, the side willing and able to do the absolute most damage will win every time.

We as Republicans tend to be honest, fair minded, moral, rule followers. We are at war for the heart and soul of this country against an enemy that has NO such scruples.

Now I have heard people say that if you have to win by breaking the rules, it makes the winning a hypocrisy. OK, so we follow the rules scrupulously and DON’T win -— what did that get us in the long run besides further down the road to socialism.

The winner gets to make AND enforce the rules. The only way the rules mean anything at all is if WE actually WIN -— because we all know that they are going to turn a blind eye to any and every rule and win by every means possible.

So, we need to adopt their playbook: buy pizza, give away cigarettes and beer, pay someone at the senior centers to “help” the seniors vote, etc.

Do we really WANT to WIN, or do we want to pat ourselves on the back for doing the right thing as they load us on the cattle cars???”
" Excellent points, not sure yet what the solution is but this is indeed war not politics.

15 posted on 11/08/2012 11:34:04 AM PST by pwatson
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To: Longbow1969
It is almost frightening how profoundly unpopular the conservative message is now on college and university campuses.

Agree.

My children grew up conservative, and managed to stay conservative --except for one, who went liberal after his freshman year at college. (Though I suspect that by now, after several years in the workforce, he might be leaning rightward.)

But I'm thinking that in 4 years, Obama may well become profoundly UNpopular with the 20-somethings.

Some reasons why:

(1) ObamaCare's more burdensome regulations will start to kick in. Many young adults will suddenly find themselves FORCED to buy health insurance, or pay a fine. I think they will be UNpleasantly surprised.

(2) The employment market is likely to remain profoundly depressed under Obama.

(3) Some things that are hip don't wear well over time. Like MySpace used to be The Big Thing. Then Facebook became more popular. At some point Facebook will be replaced by The Next Big Thing.

16 posted on 11/08/2012 11:57:09 AM PST by shhrubbery! (NIH!)
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To: All
Correction: Earlier I wrote that Similarly, the vote total for Obama from Hispanics was also down.

As I type I'm hearing Karl Rove on television in the next room ... Rove is saying that Hispanics were the only group who gave Obama a higher total in 2012, compared to 2008.

So I guess Obama's UNCONSTITUTIONAL bribe gift to illegal immigrants, last June, worked:
Krauthammer: Obama's fiat order is naked lawlessness

17 posted on 11/08/2012 12:11:32 PM PST by shhrubbery! (NIH!)
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To: shhrubbery!

Facebook and Google are the problem. Obama employed a PHD to oversee their data mining operation that had experience with massive amounts of data in the grocery industry.

Then they get their friends at google and facebook to turn over the keys. They had the ability to go block by block in the swing states and know exactly who to focus their efforts on by parsing the last four years of facebook comments and google searches.

If you regularly post criticism, don’t bother with your profile. If you post how you would vote for obama if ... then send that person a personalized email with a promise.

Court women by promising dinner with Clooney (a pull factor) and by telling them that Romney wants to pull out their uterus (push factor).

Create an app where facebook users can look their name up and see who else with their same name is registered to vote but hasn’t voted yet in nearby precincts.

They were able to laser target their message to the individual level where necessary without any waste. That is why no one saw any campaign signs and bumper stickers. They are mass marketing mediums and mass marketing is dead.

Quit using these sites...they are only taking your information and using it against you. Quit posting on facebook about politics. Quit using google to find things online. They are not your friend. It might relieve stress, but it doesn’t help the cause in the long run.


18 posted on 11/08/2012 12:11:57 PM PST by willyd (Don't shoot, we're Republicans!)
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To: willyd
Interesting. I never heard about that. It doesn't surprise me though.

Btw I am Facebook illiterate, so you don't need to suggest I stop using it!

However if the Dems are exploiting it, our side should step up efforts to find ways to reach young voters with such tools too.

19 posted on 11/08/2012 12:18:08 PM PST by shhrubbery! (NIH!)
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To: shhrubbery!

RINO File.


20 posted on 11/08/2012 2:37:11 PM PST by Graewoulf ((Traitor John Roberts' Obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: Graewoulf

What does that mean.


21 posted on 11/08/2012 2:39:52 PM PST by shhrubbery! (NIH!)
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To: shhrubbery!

“What does that mean.”?

Taking names and _______-___ !


22 posted on 11/08/2012 2:54:01 PM PST by Graewoulf ((Traitor John Roberts' Obama"care" violates Sherman Anti-Trust Law, AND the U.S. Constitution.))
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To: shhrubbery!

Listening to descriptions of how “Democrats got out their ground game” with “superior ability to bring those to the polls who normally would never go” by the commentators on Fox election night..made me realize..what they actually have done is track names that HAVE NOT VOTED IN MANY, MANY elections cycles....and vote them.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/23/No-Car-Finds-2-214-Registered-Voters-110-Years-of-Age-Older

A well-funded project, county-by-county..to examine the names signed in at at the polls..and going out to find those individuals..you’ll find they were never physically at he polls..or they themselves never filled out the absentee ballot....or their names in the death registers.


23 posted on 11/08/2012 3:02:06 PM PST by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: LS

We lost cuyahoga by 236,000 vs. 258,000 in 08. Unofficial results. Where were our voters? McCain got more voters than romney in cuyahoga - how os that even possible?


24 posted on 11/09/2012 10:15:28 AM PST by Ravi
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