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Intrade's betting on Obama (paid out $650,000 already-Obama win)
Cnn.com ^

Posted on 11/06/2012 11:21:03 AM PST by listenhillary

The race to the White House is neck-and-neck, according to the polls. But in the world of gambling and prediction markets, the outcome of Tuesday's election is plain as day.

President Obama has a 71.5% chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, according to Intrade, a website where users place bets on everything from politics to Academy Award winners.

That gives Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 28.5% chance of winning.

If you don't like those odds, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power said Monday that it was already paying out bets that Obama would win, a day before voters went to the polls.

(Excerpt) Read more at buzz.money.cnn.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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To: GeronL

I’m not sure, but it has occurred to me that the Dems may have been gaming InTrade from the start.


51 posted on 11/06/2012 12:17:48 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Oh oh oh... ooooh ooooh. Oh oh oh... ooooh ooooh. Oh oh oh... ooooh ooooh. Yes Toto, it's over!)
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To: usconservative

they were wrong on obamacare.


52 posted on 11/06/2012 12:19:48 PM PST by Libertarian4Bush (if you voted for obama, I have no respect for you. you're either a loser or a sucker. sorry!)
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To: DoughtyOne

Me too. I never trusted that site any more than I would trust DU.


53 posted on 11/06/2012 12:21:09 PM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: listenhillary
Ah yes, FReepers dutifully lapping this crap up. I swear, some of you people get your rocks off on being pessimistic. If it wasn't this story it would be something else. You folks depress the Hell out of me and only dispirit others.

Good riddance!

54 posted on 11/06/2012 12:21:09 PM PST by Artcore
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To: GeronL

Reading more closely, Intrade is not the one paying out early. It’s a private Irish booking firm named Paddy Power.


55 posted on 11/06/2012 12:22:11 PM PST by Zack Attack
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To: listenhillary
Intrade is separate from Paddy Power.

Paddy Power is the one paying out early. They are known to do this sort of thing as a marketing gimmick.

I think Intrade makes it money only from a $4.99 administrative fee and that all betting transactions are between private parties. So no early payouts from Intrade.

56 posted on 11/06/2012 12:22:25 PM PST by UnwashedPeasant
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To: AmericaUnited

the money is “paid” from people who bet romney higher... they’re selling shares back and forth for a monthly membership fee... “intrade” pays nothing... this is all legitimate, if volatile. tends to be populated by younger folks who trend left, so there IS money to be made.


57 posted on 11/06/2012 12:22:50 PM PST by Libertarian4Bush (if you voted for obama, I have no respect for you. you're either a loser or a sucker. sorry!)
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To: Zack Attack

oh?

I thought that it meant they were the ones running Intrade


58 posted on 11/06/2012 12:24:29 PM PST by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: GeronL

This payoff early thing really baffles me. I’m not sure there’s much money involved here to be honest, but a payout early? You sure don’t hear of that much do you.

I’d say you were right to give it as much credence as DU.


59 posted on 11/06/2012 12:26:22 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Oh oh oh... ooooh ooooh. Oh oh oh... ooooh ooooh. Oh oh oh... ooooh ooooh. Yes Toto, it's over!)
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To: Libertarian4Bush

If I could fund an account, I would bet on Romney for sure. This is easy money.

The non-U.S. betters have no clue.


60 posted on 11/06/2012 12:36:05 PM PST by UnwashedPeasant
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To: discostu

The way I understand intrade is a bettor can sell their shares at any time as soon as they find another user to take over their side of the bet.
Essentially intrade shares can be bought and sold at any time as long as a user finds someone to trade with at a given price. Intrade makes a percentage fee on every transaction (even if the shares change hands before the event takes place).


61 posted on 11/06/2012 12:52:14 PM PST by Dave346
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To: Cheerio

“Doesn’t loopie Howard have that backassward?”

Yes, it’s interesting how CERTAIN he is that the only way to win is through fraud. Methinks he has insider info on the Dem’s “secret sauce” in winning electoral campaigns....


62 posted on 11/06/2012 12:53:32 PM PST by DrC
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To: Heavyrunner

Does anyone know Intrade’s success rate on these things?
***********************************************
100% ... after the fact..


63 posted on 11/06/2012 12:56:46 PM PST by Neidermeyer
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To: usconservative

“Intrade has never been wrong ... yet.”

According to a poster at Investor Politics, Intrade
“also gave a better than 80% chance that the Supreme court would overturn Obamacare the day before the verdict.”
http://investorplace.com/investorpolitics/intrades-presidential-prediction-machine-politics-obama-romney-2012/

So you can’t say they’ve never been wrong, but they do have a pretty good track record in presidential elections.


64 posted on 11/06/2012 12:59:40 PM PST by DrC
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To: discostu

There’s not a bookmaker in the world that pays out before the event.
******************************************************
Intrade isn’t a bookmaker ... they don’t set odds ,, just collect monthly membership fees from users ... it is completely possible that people bought obama at a lower price and sold at a higher price ,, it’s really like a stock option that either settles at $0 or $10 ,, the difference is there is no marketmaker... it’s strictly between the members agreeing on prices .. in that way it’s a great place to make money on a far off eventuality when you expect the story-line to change. buy-sell-buy again-sell again ...


65 posted on 11/06/2012 1:01:23 PM PST by Neidermeyer
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To: Neidermeyer

That sentence wasn’t about intrade, it was about Paddy Power.


66 posted on 11/06/2012 1:06:14 PM PST by discostu (Not a part of anyone's well oiled machine.)
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To: UnwashedPeasant

All you have to do is sign up and send them a check and proof of identity. But it takes a while for your account to become active. So you have definately missed out on this election oportunity.

The amount of money that it would take to manipulate Intrade is less than what it would cost for normal advertising. So I don’t have any real confidence in its predictive value for a presidential election.


67 posted on 11/06/2012 1:07:55 PM PST by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: listenhillary

Save for tomorrow morning


68 posted on 11/06/2012 2:08:51 PM PST by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
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To: listenhillary

Zero has dropped 3 points in the last few minutes. Watching this like a hawk. Schadenfreude!!!!


69 posted on 11/06/2012 2:42:57 PM PST by America_Right (I am no longer the 53%. Unemployment sucks! Time to write a book...)
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To: Artcore

No parting opus?


70 posted on 11/06/2012 3:19:36 PM PST by listenhillary (Courts, law enforcement, roads and national defense should be the extent of government)
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To: Paddy Irish

“It’s almost impossible for a US citizen to make a wager on the election. It can be done but you have to Western Union the money to the Philippines first. “

Nope. You send the money, check or wire, to Ireland, where Intrade is.

I thought “paddy Irish” would know that. :-)

“The high odds on Romney is partly because of the staggering amount bet on Obama way back to the beginning of this year and the fact that all the people betting are from Europe and Russia.”

That’s what I thought. I thought the 30% odds for Romney was bogus. I thought the polls were slanted to Obama.
Ummmmmmmmm, maybe not.


71 posted on 11/06/2012 10:59:40 PM PST by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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