Skip to comments.Intrade's betting on Obama (paid out $650,000 already-Obama win)
Posted on 11/06/2012 11:21:03 AM PST by listenhillary
The race to the White House is neck-and-neck, according to the polls. But in the world of gambling and prediction markets, the outcome of Tuesday's election is plain as day.
President Obama has a 71.5% chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, according to Intrade, a website where users place bets on everything from politics to Academy Award winners.
That gives Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 28.5% chance of winning.
If you don't like those odds, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power said Monday that it was already paying out bets that Obama would win, a day before voters went to the polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at buzz.money.cnn.com ...
Sorry I’m not buying it. Way too often in things that people bet on the thing everybody “knows” will happen doesn’t. If the bookie paid off early he then has to go get the money back, that’s just stupid. There’s no margin in it, only bad things can happen. Maybe they announce it, maybe they even cut checks that are post dated but they aren’t paying out early. They also apparently have a rep for not paying out on long odds, which tells you just how honest they are and how much you should believe them when they say they’re paying early.
I say delusional BS!
Looks like a penny stock pump and dump.
I’m going to go to the track and see if they will pay out on a horse before the end of the race.
That had occurred to me also.
The Irish are the world’s foremost authority on American politics. They say so themselves, therefore it must be true. /s
First time for everything I suppose but this doesn't give me heart .....
my guess: these payouts (laundering) were already planned for an obama win.
Now they feel/know obama will NOT win so they are paying out a day early.
When the election is called they say “wow, how could we (wink, wink) have been so dumb!”
The Mitt payouts will cause them to declare bankruptcy (oh, dear, we can’t pay them now!)
Thanks man...That does make me feel better.
I’m not sure, but it has occurred to me that the Dems may have been gaming InTrade from the start.
they were wrong on obamacare.
Me too. I never trusted that site any more than I would trust DU.
Reading more closely, Intrade is not the one paying out early. It’s a private Irish booking firm named Paddy Power.
Paddy Power is the one paying out early. They are known to do this sort of thing as a marketing gimmick.
I think Intrade makes it money only from a $4.99 administrative fee and that all betting transactions are between private parties. So no early payouts from Intrade.
the money is “paid” from people who bet romney higher... they’re selling shares back and forth for a monthly membership fee... “intrade” pays nothing... this is all legitimate, if volatile. tends to be populated by younger folks who trend left, so there IS money to be made.
I thought that it meant they were the ones running Intrade
This payoff early thing really baffles me. I’m not sure there’s much money involved here to be honest, but a payout early? You sure don’t hear of that much do you.
I’d say you were right to give it as much credence as DU.
If I could fund an account, I would bet on Romney for sure. This is easy money.
The non-U.S. betters have no clue.