Skip to comments.Intrade's betting on Obama (paid out $650,000 already-Obama win)
Posted on 11/06/2012 11:21:03 AM PST by listenhillary
The race to the White House is neck-and-neck, according to the polls. But in the world of gambling and prediction markets, the outcome of Tuesday's election is plain as day.
President Obama has a 71.5% chance of winning the U.S. presidential election, according to Intrade, a website where users place bets on everything from politics to Academy Award winners.
That gives Republican challenger Mitt Romney a 28.5% chance of winning.
If you don't like those odds, Irish bookmaker Paddy Power said Monday that it was already paying out bets that Obama would win, a day before voters went to the polls.
(Excerpt) Read more at buzz.money.cnn.com ...
I’m not sure, but it has occurred to me that the Dems may have been gaming InTrade from the start.
they were wrong on obamacare.
Me too. I never trusted that site any more than I would trust DU.
Reading more closely, Intrade is not the one paying out early. It’s a private Irish booking firm named Paddy Power.
Paddy Power is the one paying out early. They are known to do this sort of thing as a marketing gimmick.
I think Intrade makes it money only from a $4.99 administrative fee and that all betting transactions are between private parties. So no early payouts from Intrade.
the money is “paid” from people who bet romney higher... they’re selling shares back and forth for a monthly membership fee... “intrade” pays nothing... this is all legitimate, if volatile. tends to be populated by younger folks who trend left, so there IS money to be made.
I thought that it meant they were the ones running Intrade
This payoff early thing really baffles me. I’m not sure there’s much money involved here to be honest, but a payout early? You sure don’t hear of that much do you.
I’d say you were right to give it as much credence as DU.
If I could fund an account, I would bet on Romney for sure. This is easy money.
The non-U.S. betters have no clue.
The way I understand intrade is a bettor can sell their shares at any time as soon as they find another user to take over their side of the bet.
Essentially intrade shares can be bought and sold at any time as long as a user finds someone to trade with at a given price. Intrade makes a percentage fee on every transaction (even if the shares change hands before the event takes place).
“Doesn’t loopie Howard have that backassward?”
Yes, it’s interesting how CERTAIN he is that the only way to win is through fraud. Methinks he has insider info on the Dem’s “secret sauce” in winning electoral campaigns....
Does anyone know Intrades success rate on these things?
100% ... after the fact..
“Intrade has never been wrong ... yet.”
According to a poster at Investor Politics, Intrade
“also gave a better than 80% chance that the Supreme court would overturn Obamacare the day before the verdict.”
So you can’t say they’ve never been wrong, but they do have a pretty good track record in presidential elections.
Theres not a bookmaker in the world that pays out before the event.
Intrade isn’t a bookmaker ... they don’t set odds ,, just collect monthly membership fees from users ... it is completely possible that people bought obama at a lower price and sold at a higher price ,, it’s really like a stock option that either settles at $0 or $10 ,, the difference is there is no marketmaker... it’s strictly between the members agreeing on prices .. in that way it’s a great place to make money on a far off eventuality when you expect the story-line to change. buy-sell-buy again-sell again ...
That sentence wasn’t about intrade, it was about Paddy Power.
All you have to do is sign up and send them a check and proof of identity. But it takes a while for your account to become active. So you have definately missed out on this election oportunity.
The amount of money that it would take to manipulate Intrade is less than what it would cost for normal advertising. So I don’t have any real confidence in its predictive value for a presidential election.
Save for tomorrow morning
Zero has dropped 3 points in the last few minutes. Watching this like a hawk. Schadenfreude!!!!
No parting opus?
“Its almost impossible for a US citizen to make a wager on the election. It can be done but you have to Western Union the money to the Philippines first. “
Nope. You send the money, check or wire, to Ireland, where Intrade is.
I thought “paddy Irish” would know that. :-)
“The high odds on Romney is partly because of the staggering amount bet on Obama way back to the beginning of this year and the fact that all the people betting are from Europe and Russia.”
That’s what I thought. I thought the 30% odds for Romney was bogus. I thought the polls were slanted to Obama.
Ummmmmmmmm, maybe not.