[Red Steel]

Right to the end, Silver is going down in epic flames and taking his DU’ers with him. LoL.

[riri]

I detest whoever runs that Business Insider. I tell him off at least once a week.

I stepped outside of my conservative bubble briefly last night. I had no idea the lefties were so convinced they were going to win too. Not being an Eeyore, but I was a little unnerved by it.

Then I went over to Breitbart's and they were there in all there true to form vileness. I figured if they were so sure they were winning why would they be trolling at Breitbarts?

[goldstategop]

LOL!

Nate Silver’s confidence depends on an accurate reading of the 9% of the voting public who have been polled.

It says nothing about the 90% who have NOT been contacted and whose voting intentions remain unknown.

That’s a big leap to take and the pollsters are not even going that far!

[BlueStateRightist]

When Romney is declared the winner tomorrow night the first thing I’m going to post on my Facebook page for all my liberal “friends” is “Nate Silver needs to send out his resume.”

[BookmanTheJanitor]

Here's Captain Cherry Pick on the Rachel Maddow show.

[WashingtonSource]

Good grief. What an incredible degree of self-delusion, which is what I think it is. I don’t think he is lying, so much as he is a rabid believer in the Communist cause.

[servo1969]

Aw man, really? 86% chance Obama will win? Jeez. I mean that’s a lot. I was gonna vote for Romney and stuff but if there’s only a 14% he’ll win, I mean, what’s the point? There’s gonna be long lines and waiting. And who knows what the weather might do. I’m so depressed. I guess I’ll just stay at home and watch TV.

NOT!

Does this guy think everyone is stupid? I saw people stand in line at Chick-fil-A for a couple of hours to buy a damn sandwich! Are all those people going to vote for Obama?

Obama shows up somewhere and 4000 people come out to see him. Meanwhile, Romney shows up at a rally and almost 30,000 people come to see him! Are those people going to vote for Obama, too?

According to this guy we should just skip the election altogether and name Obama “President for Life.”

I don’t think so.
Short of me ending up in the hospital for some reason I’m voting tomorrow.
I’ll be up at 4 AM, be at work at 6 AM, and leave work an hour and a half early at 4:30 PM to vote. I should get to the polling station around 5:15 if I’m lucky. Then I’ll stand in line. I don’t care if I stand there until after 8. I’m voting! And nothing this ding-dong says will change that!

(And I ain’t a votin’ fer Obama!(spit))

[PapaBear3625]

The primary objective of his Kool-Aid is to convince Dems that all is not lost, and they should still go to the polls.

The consequence will be that if Romney wins, there will be cries of there being an election-stealing conspiracy, leading to violence.

[ChronicMA]

Nate Silver used to post in a poker forum as Nate tha’ Great. In 2004 he

started a Swing State prediction contest.

Link here:

http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=1190165&page=0&f

part=all&vc=1

He got the election wrong predicting a Kerry win. Kerry 275, Bush 263.

The states he got wrong:
He said Kerry would win AR, IA, and OH. Bush won all 3.
He said Bush would win WI. Kerry won it.

Nate has been wrong many times, and sometimes he guesses right too. But he

certainly is no expert, and certainly no better than any other commentator

or numbers cruncher.

[Names Ash Housewares]

By his own past assertion below which I agree with as do many actual political experts like Barone, Obama is screwed and the failed baseball statistics liberal is quite wrong on who will win. "In almost every competitive general election, the party that loses the contest has also lost independent voters. This is because most people (although less so in gubernatorial elections) vote strictly along party lines: the Democrat might be all but guaranteed 80 to 90 percent of the Democratic vote, and the Republican 80 to 90 percent of the Republican vote. Except in certain regions of the country where one or another party encompasses a particularly wide range of ideologies (such as NY-23′s Republicans or vestigial “Solid South” Democrats), it’s independents who swing the vote, since they represent the overwhelming majority of the votes which are up-for-grabs. This must necessarily be the case. – Nate Silver, November 5, 2009

[Mr. K]

Intrade is a NOT a poll of who will win, it is a measure of how many people put money on one side or the other

Usually that is a good indicator, but Obama voters are pretty stupid

If I could I would put $2K on Romney on Intrade TODAY

[RobertClark]

There is a two word term utilized in statistical and scientific circles which describes Silver's 'methodology': Confirmation Bias.

The largest problem with his model is that it relies entirely upon data provided by third party polling firms which he then weights and injects a turnout prediction. He neither has control over the methodology utilized by the third party polling firms nor does he objectively evaluate the turnout percentages. Tomorrow, it is quite realistic that turnout will be R +3 to +5.

DU'ers hang their hats on Silver and proclaim that he is the only one who called it right in 2008. Well, we shall see about their golden boy. I'm going on record as stating that I know as a fact his methodology is flawed and he needs to go back to analyzing baseball stats.

[Nifster]

has anyone thought to send this doofus a case of duct tape for late Tuesday night application????

[x]

The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency.

So Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college and the presidency?

What happens then?

[Menehune56]

I think these over-weighted polls are intended to intimidate establishment GOP elites into not complaining about RAT vote fraud.

[x]

The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency.

So Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college and the presidency?

What happens then?

[justa-hairyape]

Obama did not even have that high of a reelection probability the day after the won the presidency. Maybe a 60-70 % chance of reelection the day after he won the election. That was Obama’s peak 4 years ago and it has been nothing but downhill since then.

[kevkrom]

Ironically, I have a “model” that predicts an 86% chance that Nate Silver will be unemployed and humiliated within the next 48 hours.

[wyowolf]

I sure as hell hope he is wrong. with the polls all over the place and being so close :(

Someone is going to look really stupid Wednesday, I sure hope its not us.

[SVTCobra03]

Democrats see reality through the prism of their delusions.