Nate Silver used to post in a poker forum as Nate tha’ Great. In 2004 he
started a Swing State prediction contest.
Link here:
http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=1190165&page=0&f
part=all&vc=1
He got the election wrong predicting a Kerry win. Kerry 275, Bush 263.
The states he got wrong:
He said Kerry would win AR, IA, and OH. Bush won all 3.
He said Bush would win WI. Kerry won it.
Nate has been wrong many times, and sometimes he guesses right too. But he
certainly is no expert, and certainly no better than any other commentator
or numbers cruncher.
I guess he wasn’t that good at poker either.