Skip to comments.NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Now Hit An Overwhelming 86%
Posted on 11/05/2012 9:19:17 AM PST by SeekAndFind
With one day to go in the U.S. presidential election, Obama's probability of winning has reached 86%, according to New York Times polling guru Nate Silver.
Betting markets Intrade and Betfair also show the President maintaining a strong (but less extreme) lead. These assessments come despite the continued release of some polls that look good for Romney. The difference between the national polls and the betting markets, some polling experts say, is that the national polls focus on the popular vote, whereas Silver's odds focus on state-by-state polls aimed at determining the winner of the electoral college and, with it, the Presidency. Nate Silver's model also averages hundreds of polls.
Nate Silver is so confident in his polling model that he publicly offered to bet MSNBC host Joe Scarborough who would win the election. Scarborough, who maintains that the election is a "toss-up," has not accepted the challenge.
Let's go to the data...
First, Nate Silver now gives Obama 86% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% three weeks ago, and it's higher than the 80% previous all-time peak Obama hit just before the first debate.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Right to the end, Silver is going down in epic flames and taking his DU’ers with him. LoL.
I stepped outside of my conservative bubble briefly last night. I had no idea the lefties were so convinced they were going to win too. Not being an Eeyore, but I was a little unnerved by it.
Then I went over to Breitbart's and they were there in all there true to form vileness. I figured if they were so sure they were winning why would they be trolling at Breitbarts?
Nate Silver’s confidence depends on an accurate reading of the 9% of the voting public who have been polled.
It says nothing about the 90% who have NOT been contacted and whose voting intentions remain unknown.
That’s a big leap to take and the pollsters are not even going that far!
My understanding is that all Silver does is compile polls that heavily oversample Democrats.
When Romney is declared the winner tomorrow night the first thing I’m going to post on my Facebook page for all my liberal “friends” is “Nate Silver needs to send out his resume.”
...”and if he doesn’t win you’ll all know you got SCROOOOOOOOD by Redneck Tea Party RACISTS and Diebold voting machines...”
Here's Captain Cherry Pick on the Rachel Maddow show.
close- he cherrypicks polls that figure in on his agenda....he’s gone out of his way to berate Rasmussen’s polls in the past even though the facts were on Rasmussen’s side:
Bingo! It’s clear that Silver understands numbers, but his underlying assumptions are subjective and shifting. The first red flag is the fact that he assigns a probability of victory. No pollster does that because that isn’t what pollsters do.
better yet- leave a post on his twitter page....
Yep. Garbage in, garbage out.
Good grief. What an incredible degree of self-delusion, which is what I think it is. I don’t think he is lying, so much as he is a rabid believer in the Communist cause.
Aw man, really? 86% chance Obama will win? Jeez. I mean that’s a lot. I was gonna vote for Romney and stuff but if there’s only a 14% he’ll win, I mean, what’s the point? There’s gonna be long lines and waiting. And who knows what the weather might do. I’m so depressed. I guess I’ll just stay at home and watch TV.
Does this guy think everyone is stupid? I saw people stand in line at Chick-fil-A for a couple of hours to buy a damn sandwich! Are all those people going to vote for Obama?
Obama shows up somewhere and 4000 people come out to see him. Meanwhile, Romney shows up at a rally and almost 30,000 people come to see him! Are those people going to vote for Obama, too?
According to this guy we should just skip the election altogether and name Obama “President for Life.”
I don’t think so.
Short of me ending up in the hospital for some reason I’m voting tomorrow.
I’ll be up at 4 AM, be at work at 6 AM, and leave work an hour and a half early at 4:30 PM to vote. I should get to the polling station around 5:15 if I’m lucky. Then I’ll stand in line. I don’t care if I stand there until after 8. I’m voting! And nothing this ding-dong says will change that!
(And I ain’t a votin’ fer Obama!(spit))
Posted the story the other day. Turns out his crazily accurate predictions in 2008 were because Obama’s campaign was feeding him their internal polling info. They signed a confidentiality agreement. TOTAL FRAUD!
The consequence will be that if Romney wins, there will be cries of there being an election-stealing conspiracy, leading to violence.
Nate Silver used to post in a poker forum as Nate tha’ Great. In 2004 he
started a Swing State prediction contest.
He got the election wrong predicting a Kerry win. Kerry 275, Bush 263.
The states he got wrong:
He said Kerry would win AR, IA, and OH. Bush won all 3.
He said Bush would win WI. Kerry won it.
Nate has been wrong many times, and sometimes he guesses right too. But he
certainly is no expert, and certainly no better than any other commentator
or numbers cruncher.
I'm going to be at the poll when it opens (6:30 am in PA) and vote then. I hope to avoid the worst of the lines that way.
My daughter uses Facebook for business purposes and she showed me a sample of the angry posts from liberals today declaring that Romney is going down, big time. Many say that Romney shouldn’t bother to continue to campaign. ???
If Obama supporters are confident that O has it in the bag, why are they so angry?
Intrade is a NOT a poll of who will win, it is a measure of how many people put money on one side or the other
Usually that is a good indicator, but Obama voters are pretty stupid
If I could I would put $2K on Romney on Intrade TODAY
The largest problem with his model is that it relies entirely upon data provided by third party polling firms which he then weights and injects a turnout prediction. He neither has control over the methodology utilized by the third party polling firms nor does he objectively evaluate the turnout percentages. Tomorrow, it is quite realistic that turnout will be R +3 to +5.
DU'ers hang their hats on Silver and proclaim that he is the only one who called it right in 2008. Well, we shall see about their golden boy. I'm going on record as stating that I know as a fact his methodology is flawed and he needs to go back to analyzing baseball stats.
I agree. It's such a cop-out on his part.
When Romney wins, critics can't enumerate exactly how much Silver was wrong by. They can't say "he missed the mark by 14 percentage points or 110 electoral votes."
With his lame method of prediction, he'll just say, "Well, I did say there was a 14% chance Romney would win, so I wasn't wrong."
He's a gutless little ferret.
has anyone thought to send this doofus a case of duct tape for late Tuesday night application????
So Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college and the presidency?
What happens then?
The ideal betting situation for bookies is 50%/50%...This is because the bookie requires 10% “vigorish” from a losing bet.
It seems they are showing that Obama should win by 80%/20%...What this shows me is they are trying to get MORE Obama bets by claiming his victory margin...The betting may actually be running higher for Romney than Obama and the bookies are trying to even things up...
I think these over-weighted polls are intended to intimidate establishment GOP elites into not complaining about RAT vote fraud.
So Obama loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college and the presidency?
What happens then?
Obama did not even have that high of a reelection probability the day after the won the presidency. Maybe a 60-70 % chance of reelection the day after he won the election. That was Obama’s peak 4 years ago and it has been nothing but downhill since then.
I guess he wasn’t that good at poker either.
Ironically, I have a “model” that predicts an 86% chance that Nate Silver will be unemployed and humiliated within the next 48 hours.
I sure as hell hope he is wrong. with the polls all over the place and being so close :(
Someone is going to look really stupid Wednesday, I sure hope its not us.
And we all should visit Chick Fil A tomorrow, too! On election day, let’s make another show of how much we support those who believe in free speech and religious freedom!
A CFA platter of nuggets would be a great item to take to an election eve party!
Democrats see reality through the prism of their delusions.
Bama’s friends, like Soros and legions from Wall Street are bidding this up.
In baseball you have hard statistics, based on a player's past performance. If the statistics state that a player reached base 30% of at bats, that's what it is. It's not 30% with a margin of error of 3%, or 30% when the model uses 41% Red Sox fans vs. 30% Rangers fans. It's 30%, period.
Polling, on the other hand, always has a margin of error, and depends heavily on the models used in the particular polls being evaluated.
In short, there is significantly more variability and vagary in the input data for political mathematical prognostication than in prognostication in baseball.
If it were that straightforward, and like calculating loads on a bridge, they could just come up with the equivalent of Turbo Tax that would automatically input the polling data from each organization and spit out the likely winner. No need for commentators or prognosticators - just the ‘Turbo Election’ program.
It's not that simple.
I got a little shaken up by the info I was reading too when I deliberately stepped out of my perspectival ‘bubble’ for a bitbut it did give me better understanding of why Obama is up so much on Intrade and what not.
Does he get to keep his "guru" status when he is proven to be oh so wrong?
In poker, when you’re gonna lose your ass anyway, might as well go “all in”.
They keep Krugman and Dowd around, don't they?
Here’s my take on these polls.
We’re looking at human nature at work: 2008 obama voters don’t want to admit obama is the wrong choice to pollsters, because that means the voters were wrong and who wants to admit that? And so we don’t see the huge decline of obama in the polls. However, that’s going to change tomorrow in the voting booth where there are no pollsters. It’ll then be a choice not about saving face but of voting between obama and Romney.
Best thing to do to convince a fence sitter to vote for Romney is to simply say: “It’s okay to vote for Romney, he’ll be a good president.” And don’t even get into obama’s record.
Bookmarked, for a session of hooting laughter on Wednesday morning (Working the polls tomorrow, pub thereafter).
I think you got your analysis backwards I think- they are trying to attract more money to the Romney side by offering a higher payoff
which means there is a lot of money on Obama’s side- but Intrade is not allowed to trade in USA and overseas they are excited about an obama 2nd term - they love hime way more than we do
Now it’s up to 92.2 percent. This is just getting sad.