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Election 2012: Ohio President: Obama 49%, Romney 49%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 2 November 2012 | Scott Rasmussen

Posted on 11/02/2012 11:47:47 AM PDT by ScottinVA

With four days to go, President Obama and Mitt Romney are tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds Obama and Romney each with 49% support. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Ohio remains one of eight Toss-Up states in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Obama won the Buckeye State in 2008 by a 52% to 47% margin.

At the beginning of the week, Romney held a slight 50% to 48% advantage. It was the first time Romney has taken even a modest lead in the race of Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes since late May, but the two candidates have been within two percentage points of one another since then.

Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead.

Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; battleground; elections; melissaharrisperry; msnbc; ohio; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; romney
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Back to a tie, after a Romney lead of 2 on Wed.
1 posted on 11/02/2012 11:47:52 AM PDT by ScottinVA
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To: ScottinVA

Just shoot me now. :(


2 posted on 11/02/2012 11:49:28 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: CatOwner

It’s the margin of error which means basically no movement


3 posted on 11/02/2012 11:50:30 AM PDT by bjcoop
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To: ScottinVA

Independents back Obama by a healthy margin. Ugh...


4 posted on 11/02/2012 11:51:00 AM PDT by Tulane
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To: ScottinVA

Dang it. And Rasmussen got an A- for their accuracy in previous elections. They get it right 97 percent of the time. I can’t believe that many Americans are this dumb.


5 posted on 11/02/2012 11:51:06 AM PDT by napscoordinator (GOP Candidate 2020 - "Bloomberg 2020 - We vote for whatever crap the GOP puts in front of us.")
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To: ScottinVA

WTH? Independents are trending to the Prez all of a sudden?


6 posted on 11/02/2012 11:51:13 AM PDT by gman4bush
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To: CatOwner

I’m thinking the data behind these two statements are why Romney ventured into PA:


Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead.

Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Crap.


7 posted on 11/02/2012 11:51:34 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: ScottinVA

I hope that ground game for Mitt is real.


8 posted on 11/02/2012 11:51:47 AM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: CatOwner
Just shoot me now. :(

It would be better if you just turned off your computer. :)

9 posted on 11/02/2012 11:51:49 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: gman4bush

Sandy!!!!!!! You slut!!!!! lol.


10 posted on 11/02/2012 11:52:03 AM PDT by napscoordinator (GOP Candidate 2020 - "Bloomberg 2020 - We vote for whatever crap the GOP puts in front of us.")
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To: ScottinVA

The hand of God will decide this election. Pray. Pray often.


11 posted on 11/02/2012 11:52:06 AM PDT by jonrick46 (Countdown to 11-06-2012)
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To: ScottinVA

This is the effect of the Christie/Sandy October surprise.


12 posted on 11/02/2012 11:52:06 AM PDT by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ...)
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To: gman4bush

Or maybe independents were always with Obama and Rasmussen was just screwing with Romney supporters.


13 posted on 11/02/2012 11:52:21 AM PDT by CatOwner
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To: ScottinVA

Because 0bama handled Benghazi so well? Because goods and services to Hurricane Sandy victims are abundant? Because the jobs data looks stellar? Because 0bama acts so presidential? Sounds like the media is setting us up for an ‘outrageous election result’ in Ohio when Romney kicks 0bama’s commie azz.


14 posted on 11/02/2012 11:52:25 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: ScottinVA

Cold air must be filtering in because anyone with a clear mental facalty who votes for O clearly has a frozen sense of reason.


15 posted on 11/02/2012 11:52:54 AM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: ScottinVA

Let us pray that Team R&R knows something about Ohio that isn’t being picked up by Ras. They are going to PA on Sunday.


16 posted on 11/02/2012 11:53:09 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: Tulane
Must have been Krispy Kreme posing as Obama's Greek Column that did it...


17 posted on 11/02/2012 11:53:19 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (I'm not voting for Obama, so therefore I must be helping Romney!)
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To: ScottinVA

I don’t get the sudden massive shift in independents showing across Rasmussen polls. It doesn’t seem like anything happened that would have caused this.


18 posted on 11/02/2012 11:53:33 AM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: napscoordinator
Thank you gov Christie for helping Obama send America into a dark age of socialism (if Obama wins) where we will all be as in a housing project, starving and slaves.
19 posted on 11/02/2012 11:54:22 AM PDT by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ...)
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America

Or maybe Ohio has more people sucking from the government teat than we realize?

Sh*t, I don’t know...

:-(


20 posted on 11/02/2012 11:54:27 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: napscoordinator

Sadly it’s all but over now. Romney supposedly had a double digit lead with independents and its been erased in mere days. The media has finally tipped the scales. We’ll never win another presidential election unless we run a minority.


21 posted on 11/02/2012 11:56:33 AM PDT by xuberalles ("The Right Stuff" Conservative Novelties http://www.zazzle.com/xuberalles)
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To: napscoordinator
I can’t believe that many Americans are this dumb.

Well Obama bought them off with the auto bailout. Socialism may be a gigantic economic loser, but it is a very big election winner. About half of American are going to march off to the polls and vote themselves some freebies - and that number is only going to grow as dependency spreads.

22 posted on 11/02/2012 11:57:23 AM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: LS; Perdogg; nhwingut; SoftwareEngineer

Thoughts on the sudden shift of I’s to Obama?


23 posted on 11/02/2012 11:57:38 AM PDT by tatown (Obama was right, it was a 'one term proposition')
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To: ScottinVA

Well, so much for Ohio.


24 posted on 11/02/2012 11:57:41 AM PDT by Cato in PA (1/26/12: Bloody Thursday)
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To: Democrat_media

You are right. I have withheld judgment on Christie’s actions this week but if Obama wins by a hair, Christie is done in the Republican Party. He gave the media the exact optics they wanted this week to change the narrative. Romney had this won on Monday. It would appear to be tightening up, even if we still have an edge.


25 posted on 11/02/2012 11:57:45 AM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: ScottinVA
Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots

You see, this is why polls are unreliable, even one as meticulous as Rasmussen. The actual early vote is at about 29% of expected turnout, not 40%, and that early vote has been concentrated in Democrat-leaning counties, as a result of the Obama campaign emphasis on early voting. These numbers just aren't accurate.

26 posted on 11/02/2012 11:59:26 AM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: napscoordinator
I can’t believe that many Americans are this dumb.

You only need to look at the public school system. Over the last 30 years they have indoctrinated them with liberalism and MARXISM. This is the result.

27 posted on 11/02/2012 11:59:48 AM PDT by unixfox (Abolish Slavery, Repeal The 16th Amendment!)
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To: Cato in PA

So much for Ohio? An incumbent is tied and under 50% four days before an Election Day. That’s not good historically.


28 posted on 11/02/2012 11:59:48 AM PDT by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: Cato in PA
Forty percent (40%) of Ohio voters say they have already cast their ballots, and among these voters, the president has a comfortable 56% to 41% lead. Both candidates earn better than 90% support from voters in their respective parties. The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Well, we don't know that yet, but it's a bit grimmer than the last one. We'll see. It's not like R is trailing big here.

29 posted on 11/02/2012 12:00:09 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: DarthVader

watching wimpy handwringers crying and peeing their pants everytime this idiot rasmoosen puts out a new poll is like watching a cat playing with a mouse. some people are hopeless.


30 posted on 11/02/2012 12:00:19 PM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: CatOwner

Bingo. Not necessarily that Ras was lying, but MANY media pollsters had Romney way up with “independents” weeks ago. I predicted in a thread then that it was just a ploy so that they could show him crashing back down at the end.

As far as Bonzo’s big lead among those who have already voted in Ohio, the math majors on this site have been telling us for weeks that early voting in Ohio and pretty much everywhere else has trended *significantly* toward the Republicans when compared to 2008. A spreadsheet says so.

Nevermind that Romney is still far, far behind in early voting in Ohio (not as far as McCain was though — whoopee!) and that Josh Mandel is getting absolutely stomped by the dirtiest, slimiest Democrat bastard in the Senate, and has been all along, and doesn’t seem to be fighting back much if at all.


31 posted on 11/02/2012 12:00:35 PM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: ScottinVA

Obama is actually doing worse than expected in early voting. He is behind 2008 and what was expected this year.


32 posted on 11/02/2012 12:01:56 PM PDT by Siegfried X
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To: Cato in PA
Well, so much for Ohio.

Sorry, wrong copy-paste on the last one. At least it's still within the MOE. The turnout will still be strong... we'll see.

33 posted on 11/02/2012 12:02:05 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America

Since that news hit, market has fallen 60 points...guess some are selling before the coming tax increases or need to leave the country.

My cousin works for a firm that is held by a venture capital group (not Bain). They have been trying like mad to get it sold before the end of the year just due to the uncertainty of the coming tax increases and their desire to pay as little tax as possible on the sale. I was always told to not worry about taxes when doing an investment but this clown and his party have me avoiding doing anything to boost their coffers on my back so they can buy more votes. I am tired of carrying the non producers and malingerers, the bums and the lazy. My word for His Excellency, I am tired of being a dormat, go find someone else to support your stash if you get elected. Call me selfish or whatever, but I am done...over and out and you can reach me at the beach.


34 posted on 11/02/2012 12:02:22 PM PDT by Mouton (Voting is an opiate of the electorate. Nothing changes no matter who wins..)
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To: ScottinVA; jonrick46

we need to pray for rain in Ohio. We need Ohio, Badly, without it we are climbing Everest, with it we are marching across a field. Rain in Ohio always helps Conservative causes in Ohio.


35 posted on 11/02/2012 12:02:22 PM PDT by HenryArmitage (it was not meant that we should voyage far.)
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To: ilgipper

I don’t see how either. i simply don’t see how anyone is shifting at the last second. The lines are drawn and people are pretty hardened in their positions.


36 posted on 11/02/2012 12:02:22 PM PDT by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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To: xuberalles

Obama drew only 2600 today and Romney is expected to draw 50,000 tonight. I would hardly say its over.


37 posted on 11/02/2012 12:02:28 PM PDT by zt1053
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To: ScottinVA

Um...wasn’t this 48/48 this morning? There’s another thread clearly on today’s numbers under Breaking News.


38 posted on 11/02/2012 12:03:06 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: ScottinVA

so 99% of polls are left leaning with a minimum of +5 democrat oversampling and we’re supposed to fall for this crap the weekend going in?

Romney pulling crowds of 50K and Obama maybe drawing 5K?

All RCP does is take an average of leftwing polls which is basically worthless.

Get real people.


39 posted on 11/02/2012 12:03:06 PM PDT by Hammerhead
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To: ScottinVA

At most 1.5 million votes have been cast. Gmu shows 1.25 as of 10/30. Turnout will be 5.7 million. Mark my words 5.7 million. 1.5 million out of 5.7 million is 26% not 40%.

It helps to have hard data when interpreting early vote percentages. All polls have been off with regards to the amount of early votes being cast. People are obviously lying to pollsters by saying they have voted when they havent.


40 posted on 11/02/2012 12:03:19 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: PermaRag
Nevermind that Romney is still far, far behind in early voting in Ohio (not as far as McCain was though — whoopee!)

Wow, news to me - have a source?

41 posted on 11/02/2012 12:03:45 PM PDT by TonyInOhio (O-H-I-O, Barry - misspell our name and we kick you out!)
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To: kingattax

And these morons will be all over this site all fricking weekend.

Many of them are DU trolls as evidence by their date of joining FR (usually within a month or so of a past national election).

The rest are the resident losers that are spending their time looking at polls and have spent zero minutes volunteering with GOTV efforts.


42 posted on 11/02/2012 12:03:58 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: tatown; LS; SoftwareEngineer

It’s not a good poll if it says 40% have already voted according to Ken Garner


43 posted on 11/02/2012 12:04:06 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: ScottinVA

Help me on this one as I can’t follow the math...tied at 49% but Obama ahead 56%-41% of the 40% who have already cast ballots, and Obama up 50% to 41% with independents and more than 90% support the candidate of their party. Either this is a +R poll or this statement is backwards-—”The president is ahead 50% to 41% among voters not affiliated with either major political party.”


44 posted on 11/02/2012 12:05:18 PM PDT by BlackBeauty
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To: snarkytart

You’re referring to Ras’ national poll.


45 posted on 11/02/2012 12:06:10 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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To: TonyInOhio

While the early voting numbers are not encouraging the Independent numbers are awful. Romney can’t win any crap in any swing state that has him down 9 with independents. And in order for Rasmussen to show a tie in Ohio with Independents +9 for Obama he is giving the R’s all the benefit of turnout. This one ruined my day.


46 posted on 11/02/2012 12:06:21 PM PDT by jwalsh07
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To: xuberalles
Sadly it’s all but over now. Romney supposedly had a double digit lead with independents and its been erased in mere days. The media has finally tipped the scales. We’ll never win another presidential election unless we run a minority.

Geeze, and people call me a pessimist....

I think we're seeing a little bit of a Sandy bounce for Obama. Mitt had momentum and it appears to have been stopped for the moment. Unfortunately, we had an act of God, hurricane Sandy, at the last moment of this election cycle and it was one that seems to have helped Hussein.

It's very possible this little bounce will fade and Romney's poll position will improve the last couple days.

47 posted on 11/02/2012 12:06:31 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Ravi

Turnout was 5.7 in 2008 in Ohio too, and 5.6 million in 2004; it will be remarkable if it *doesn’t* get to 5.7 million in 2012, not if it *does*.

Still leaves a bit of work to do on election day.


48 posted on 11/02/2012 12:06:55 PM PDT by PermaRag (If Trayvon had a father, he'd look just like Obama)
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To: Cato in PA

Facepalm.


49 posted on 11/02/2012 12:07:11 PM PDT by Ravi
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To: BlackBeauty

I was trying to figure that out myself, unless Rasmussen fat-fingered that 40% figure for the early voters.


50 posted on 11/02/2012 12:07:28 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Pray hard!)
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