Presidential race tied in Ohio newspaper poll (R49 O49); 1015 LV (D+3 sample) 10/18-10/23

canton repository ^ | 10/27/12 | Heldenfels

[Ravi]

The poll results are in. With less than two weeks until the election, Ohioans as a whole, you have made your selection for president: You want Barack Obama AND Mitt Romney.

Your love for each is equal, according to results of the most recent Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters. It’s Obama 49 percent and Romney 49 percent. One percent of you prefer someone else and the other 1 percent still aren’t sure who you will vote for on Election Day.

The poll, taken between Oct. 18 and Monday, was sponsored by the eight largest circulating newspapers in Ohio, which includes The Repository. It was conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Cincinnati.

[rwfromkansas]

This poll has the same....big lead (no numbers given though) supposedly for O in early voting. I am just trying to think of 2010.....Dems were all excited with big early voting leads. Well, we all know that didn’t matter in the final result.

[gswilder]

See link below to new Byron York on state of the race from some campaign insiders.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/how-romney-sees-the-polls/article/2511912#.UIy2pYVbyI8

[tennmountainman]

Double Boom. Romney is gaining at the perfect time in Ohio.
He has yet to peak.

[bray]

Looks like the firewall is burning. The Trend be our Friend.

Pray for America

[Ken H]

What is PVI?

[1035rep]

The pollsters said the same thing about Ohio in 2010. They said the early voting, and registrations favored the Democrats. They were wrong.

Kasich won the governorship.

Ohio Senate: No Republican incumbents lost , while 2 Democratic incumbents lost.

Ohio House of Representatives: No Republican incumbents lost, while 11 incumbent Democratic incumbent lost.

[Ken H]

Found it... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index

[WOSG]

Correct. Romney up 5 means he wins NH, NV, CO, IA, and probably WI. I dont think he’ll need Ohio ... but he’ll get it.
Ohio has voted within 1-2% of the popular vote for the last 4 or 5 elections.

[txrangerette]

I so like the way you put it...Ohio has voted with the rest of the country in the past, within a very close range.

The way so many nervous Nellies and concern trolls put it, Ohio is determinative of how the country goes. Because somehow its electoral votes are gonna decide the whole election and we’ve got to be afraid that OH is going the wrong way from America.

Au contraire - your stated way is the correct one - OH mirrors the nation, it does not control it.

[LS]

At some point these pollsters had to begin looking ar REAL percentages as seen in our absentee #s and the early vote reports. These simply didn't jibe with the polls, but these were indisputable indicators. Now, it could have been argued that a lot of Rs were going to vote D--- but even " Crazy Nate Silver" doesn't' believe that.

These guys must feel like th British at Isandlwana when the whole Zulu army started coming over the hill. "that's all of them, right?"

No, that's just the vanguard!

[txrangerette]

And the other thing these nervous types do - they confuse POLLs a couple of weeks, or one week, OUT from vote counting day, with the final ELECTION RESULT.

When we know that polls not only can, and do, NATURALLY change to reflect closing trends, but also that the pollsters change their assumptions as THE DAY nears.

They are trying to be close to RIGHT, because that represents their track record and is money - or not - in the bank next time.

So, rule of thumb, do not confuse polling a week or two out with final results.

You have it.

Wish (sigh) more on our side did.

[LS]

Adrian Gray has addressed those claims-—actually, I spoke with him last week. Ds were cherry picking one county where they had a lead, and ignored many others, especially the bell weather counties which showed slight R leads. Again, we don’t even need to win early vote, just not lose huge. Gary’s numbers show that already, before Election Day we have eliminated almost all of the D early vote advantage so far.

[LS]

Just a few days ago, I heard indirectly/second hand from 3 sources in the R camp that OH then was "even" and an inside poll of Josh Mandell had just shown sharp movement our way across the board.

So I suspect this public poll, as always, is a lagging indicator and that R is up 1-2 (a private pollster told me R+2) and that on Election Day the final shift of Indies will make it +3 or +4--I don't see it being higher than 4.5 even if the national poll is higher.

[tanknetter]

I think there’s another interesting point to be made here ... the impact of early voting on polls.

My understanding is that when someone called for a poll indicates that they’ve already voted, they’re automatically placed in the likely voter category ... skipping all the likely voter filters.

So given that there’s early voting in OH, and the conventional wisdom that significantly more Obama supporters are taking advantage of early voting (I was up in Cincy and Dayton yesterday and over the course of channel surfing on the radio I heard multiple pro-Obama ads talking up early voting. But no Romney ones).

Now I know that there’s been some discussion about whether the “Dems and Dem-leaning independents vote early” CW is correct or not, but if it is then this would mean that this poll is probably even further skewed pro-Obama than the couple/few points on party ID, right? Because Republicans and GOP-leaners have to clear a higher hurdle (getting past the likely voter screen) than Obama voters do ...

[devolve]

[SoftwareEngineer]

As Ravi mentioned above, if you “gently unskew” this poll (Ravi, you have won the best use of the English language award for that phrase!), you get maybe a 51-49 or 52-48 poll in favor of the Governor.

Based on Ravi’s spreadsheet updates or LS’s on the ground reports, I do believe that is how Ohio will end up

My prediction is that the Governor wins nationally at 53-47 (give or take) but Ohio is a point or two closer, let us say 51-49 or so.

So, in that sense Ohio will underperform for the Republicans compared to national totals but the Governor will still pull it out and we will get a minimum 2 point victory in OH

However, I must say, that I feel that we will take IA, WI, NH and CO and thus OH may not be pivotal at all

10 more days and we will find out if I am drinking the Kool Aid or not :-)

[carton253]

Ohio has always reflected the country. That’s why it consistently keeps picking the winner. If Romney is up in the national polls, he is up in Ohio.

[Perdogg]

Rarely does a GOP candidate underperforms in OH.

[Marco Aurelio]

Per the writeup in the Akron Beacon Journal, this is a D +6 poll, not D +3. The breakdown is D 48, R 42, Independents 10. The PREVIOUS (September) poll has D +3 (D 47, R 44, I 10). In that previous D +3 poll, it was O 51 - R 46. Now it is 49-49. Romney leads on who better handles the economy (51-45) and enthusiasm (54-45). Given the D+6 skew, the poll is enormously encouraging.

[LS]

I agree that OH comes in .5-1 point below national . . . however, that's all still based on spin.

IF the Ds are (as some think) cannibalizing their election day voters to pump up early voting, then the Rs will add to the lead more on election day.

One thing absentee voting does is bring out the party faithful who will be out of town, so their votes wouldn't change.

But one of the serious deficiencies of "early voting" is that when something big, such as Benghazi, happens in the last couple of weeks before the election, "early voters" may have had a change of heart . . . but too late. Course, that can cut both ways.