Posted on 10/26/2012 6:43:11 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate,...
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(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
That’s another plausible explanation but I would like to see a large sample of “land lines” vs “cell phones”, to see whether it really is such a large difference in party identification.
Unbelievable. Do you have a source?
but it does not tally with RAS own poll in August which showed Republican identification up above 37%, nor with the PEW poll.
Those polls might have more questions designed to allow the pollster to move respondents into a political party.
Almost every poll, even from GOP friendly pollsters, is showing this fairly significant D+ edge. At the same time, almost every poll, even from democratic friendly pollsters, is showing Romney winning (sometimes decisively) among independents. I am fairly certain it is a function of more conservatives identifying themselves as independents now. Remember the GOP brand was shot after 2008 AND movement conservatives are entirely fed up with the RINO Republican establishment.
The OP is correct ... Gallup had Romney up 6 & 7 last week.
Scroll down a little more on that page. Josh Jordan of National Review (aka “@numbermuncher” on Twitter) is the source.
Not only is your chart popular, it is VERY informative and highly AWESOME
Thank you for your hard work!
Did you notice that ‘bammers’ strong approve number keeps going up?
He has a solid core that will defend him at all costs.
Rasmussen’s own polling on party self-identification has shown a shift in the last two years, from a Dem advantage, to a GOP advantage - from Dem +8.6 in 2008 to GOP +2.6 right now.
Really? Why is Rasmussen doing that? Are you sure he is using D+6?
The other side has plenty of money and with a few desperate actors, some fake photos, they could try to manufacture a Tuesday morning surprise.
It’s amazes me how the “secret video tape” of Romney talking about the “47%” was right on the money. No wonder it scared the hell out of the liberals. Romney nailed it. Nothing “unexpected” here.
Look at the Likely Voters numbers from the 18th to the 21st...
There is no place where Rasmussen provides his sample. The D+6 is a tweet from NumbersMuncher who has done great work analyzing, crunching polls.
Rasmussen provides a weekly crosstab and it is within this crosstab that the sample has shown to be 39/36/25.
The D+6 is simply a guesstimate. But if you do the math, it would be impossible for Romney to be up only 3 while leading Indies by 17 and scoring 13% of Dems (with a D+3 sample).
Having read all this I have to say, Vote, Vote and go Vote!
It is a free, easy to use utility for Excel that lets you convert a selection in Excel to HTML. The HTML can be posted directly to FR. You can even have links that work in FR.
Would save you the hassle of uploading an image.
Just FYI.
That’s my question. I have no landline and know that many of my friends in the most conservative county in Indiana don’t either.
Yes, I remember, and that's why I think it may be a plausible explanation, and can explain/exonerate a number of those polls that do not correct for party ID. However, to correct for party ID using a model that goes quite counter to ones own data is a bit strange. But as has been mentioned, that may be to correct for difference between land-lines and cell phones.
But again, why this should change by 3%-units from one day to the next appears "fuzzy" to me.
i’m curious as to why the states aren’t following the national polls. No way Romney can win by 3 and then lose the electoral college right?
And yet Rasmussen is using a D+6 sample in his tracking poll. I highly doubt Scott is in the tank for Obummer. For some reason, virtually EVERY polling outfit is picking up this fairly significant D+ party self-ID disparity. Almost every one of them is also picking up dramatic leads for Romney amongst Independents. You do the math.
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