but it does not tally with RAS own poll in August which showed Republican identification up above 37%, nor with the PEW poll.
Those polls might have more questions designed to allow the pollster to move respondents into a political party.
Almost every poll, even from GOP friendly pollsters, is showing this fairly significant D+ edge. At the same time, almost every poll, even from democratic friendly pollsters, is showing Romney winning (sometimes decisively) among independents. I am fairly certain it is a function of more conservatives identifying themselves as independents now. Remember the GOP brand was shot after 2008 AND movement conservatives are entirely fed up with the RINO Republican establishment.
Yes, I remember, and that's why I think it may be a plausible explanation, and can explain/exonerate a number of those polls that do not correct for party ID. However, to correct for party ID using a model that goes quite counter to ones own data is a bit strange. But as has been mentioned, that may be to correct for difference between land-lines and cell phones.
But again, why this should change by 3%-units from one day to the next appears "fuzzy" to me.
Perhaps that is why when they are giving speeches Romney looks and sounds upbeat and confident, like he is getting ready to measure the drapes for the oval office as soon as he finishes his speech and Obama looks angry and down. The campaigns internal polling is much better (they spend FAR more money on it) than the public polling outfits. I have a feeling both Romney and Obama's internal polling is showing Romney winning by a substantial margin.