Posted on 10/23/2012 1:35:05 PM PDT by Palmetto Patriot
With Romney gaining ground gradually in the swing state of Ohio, people have not paid enough attention to his surge in next door Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania casts 20 electoral votes and Ohio casts 18. And all electoral votes are created equal. It is possible to lose Ohio if you carry Pennsylvania and still win.
In Pennsylvania, polling by Republican John McLaughlin shows Romney three points ahead of Obama and a poll by The Susquehanna Polling organization shows Romney four points ahead in the Keystone State.
In Ohio, most polls have the race tied although all show significant progress by Romney in the past two weeks.
Why is Pennsylvania, nominally a more Democratic state, more hospitable to Romney than Ohio? Because Obama has run tens of millions of dollars of negative ads in Ohio smearing Romney, but has not done so in Pennsylvania.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
All Romney needs is the South, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. That’s all. Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire will be icing on the cake.
Dick Morris is predicting that Condi Rice will win Ohio over Hilary Clinton.
I am in shot-and-an-Iron City blue collar congenital Democrat Yinzer territory. And I’m telling you, you’ve gotta search awful hard for an Obama yard sign anywhere.
Plenty of Romney ones springing up. Even though those homeowners are risking acts of petty sabotage by union hacks.
No way Romney will win PA. I saw one more Obama sign today. That makes one new Obama sign per week for the last three weeks for a total of three signs in Cumberland County. Obama is surging. </extreme sarcasm>
I said yesterday to anyone who would listen that by the end of this month Ohio would be Romney’s and the new narrative would shift to “how else can Obama win”. This is a step in that direction.
If so it would be interesting to say the least.
Biden as V.P.? Well, at least Ryan would still be in line for Speaker of the House. ;)
If the current RCP toss-up states vote the below way, we get our 269-269 tie. And it is DARN plausible, because they ALL voted this way in 2004 except for Ohio. So all Obama has to do is flip Ohio to tie the electoral college and potentially save Biden’s job.
Romney:
Florida (29)
Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Nevada (6)
Obama:
Pennsylvania (20)
Ohio (18)
Michigan (16)
Wisconsin (10)
New Hampshire (4)
Also note that a 2012 “tie” map is the same as the 2004 Bush/Kerry map, except with Obama flipping New Mexico and Ohio. So it’s plausible.
The GOP candidate has gotten a higher percentage of the vote in Ohio than he has nationally in each of the last 9 elections (in 1972, Nixon was getting > 70% in the deep South and ended up with 61% nationally and “only” 59% in Ohio). If Romney gets greater than 50% of the popular vote nationwide (as Gallup and Rasmussen have him currently), he will win Ohio. For those who worry that Ohio is trending Democrat, remember we elected a Republican Governor, US Senator, and all other statewide offices in the last election cycle (2010). I’m paying more attention to the national polls, which are larger, newer, and more professionally done than the publicly released state polls.
Hmmm.
I had missed the polls showing Romney leading in PA. I had pretty much written it off, as most polls show the Kenyan with a decent lead there, but this makes me rethink that assumption.
I will say this. If Romney takes PA, then there is a 99.99% chance he takes Ohio as well.
I don’t care what the libs say about it being a “sticky” state. At the end of the day, it will be within one point or so of Romney’s national vote total, and if he wins PA, he is winning the national vote by at least a few percent.
I don't have high hopes of Romney winning PA (due to Philly Fraud), but if he does, then the election is over. It would signal a Romney landslide.
Watch the “collar counties” of Philadelphia. I Bucks, Montgomery, & Delaware counties go to Romney, he wins PA walking away. Their numbers easily overcomes Philly & all the voter fraud in that cesspool.
Entirely possible. Lots of Romney signs out in the burbs. Even soccer moms sick of Obama. My older sister actually campaigned for O in 2008 but is voting
Romney now. It can be won.
Agree with you, Romney takes PA can signal a Romney landslide God willing.
I think the “tie” is a bit far fetched as I think Gov. Romney will win with a plus 300 total. That said, if a tie sent the selection of the VP to the Senate, I truly don’t think they would select Biden. All you need are three defectors. NO ONE wants a scenario where the VP will be shut out of every meeting and every major decision. In closing, I think this “tie” process is something that should be rectified via an amendment.
Could be that Romney ambushes Hussein in PA. With Obama desperately trying to hold onto Ohio Iowa etc, a late push might just catch them off guard.
No early voting in PA, so a late surge by Romney may be able to catch them before they can fully crank up the cemetery vote.
“Meanwhile a new Reuter/Ipsos analysis shows Obama trouncing Romney and claiming 332 electoral votes, inc. the states of FL, VA, OH, and CO.”
I don’t get how people think he can win while losing the Independent vote by 7% or so, which seems to be what most of the polls are showing.
“Finally there is Wisconsin. Once again the most recent Rasmussen poll puts this state in Romney’s camp outside MOE.”
I don’t see this. I see Rasmussen having Obama ahead 50% to 48%.
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