Bounce continues in new swing-state polling

Hotair ^ | OCTOBER 11, 2012 | ED MORRISSEY

[RobinMasters]

Plenty of new swing-state polling this morning, and almost all of it looks bad for Barack Obama. Business Insider looks at NBC/Marist and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling and concludes, “President Barack Obama has lost his advantage across the electoral map.” Let’s start with the NBC take on their swing-state polling:

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

There is, however, a big caveat on those numbers from Ohio. NBC reports it in the very next paragraph:

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

[RobinMasters]

[Red Badger]

He's all 'dried' up.................

[Psalm 73]

“Oh, the humanity.....”

[ConservativeDude]

but..but..axelrod said this was all temporary, just a blip...not a fundamental change in the Big Mo!

[TruthWillWin]

In addition to the debate some bad polling for O is probably coming for way he handled the attack in Libya.

[apillar]

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

So NBC/Marxist has to assume that the democrat turnout advantage will be LARGER than 2008 in Ohio (taking no account of documented democrat plunge in early voting) and still Romney gained ground. If they used anything coming close to an accurate sample he would easily be ahead in Ohio.

[Soul of the South]

Today’s edition of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/
shows Florida moving from “tossup” to “leans Republican” and Virginia from “leans Democrat” to “tossup”. He has Obama with 277 electoral votes Romney with 235, and 26 “tossup”. If he is correct, should Romney sweep the “tossup” states, Obama has enough electoral votes to win.

Sabato is projecting the Senate at 52 Democrat and 48 Republican. He has Elizabeth Warren over Scott Brown and the Arizona race as a “tossup”. He sees a net gain of 7 House seats for the Democrats.

[mmichaels1970]

taking no account of documented democrat plunge in early voting

Actually, I think they're using early voting as their excuse. At least, I saw that Rasmussen is claiming that 2/3 of early voters in Ohio are going for Obama. So I think Ras upped his D sample from 3% to 5% or something like that.

I think it's BS that 2/3 of early votes are going for O. But that's what they're using to up their D sample.

Personally, I think they're focusing all of their calls in the urban areas. I speculate that it's too easy for them to consider Cleveland a Northern sample, Columbus a Central sample, and Cinci a Southern sample. All three cities are big-time D cesspools.

The burbs at least to NE Ohio don't look anything like they did in 2008 as far as D enthusiasm goes.

[mmichaels1970]

He has Obama with 277 electoral votes Romney with 235, and 26 “tossup”.

IMHO, he'll be moving OH and NV from leaning D to toss-up soon. That moves 24ev from Obama (253) to toss-up (50).

Really, it all boils down to Ohio. Always does.

[bray]

Shouldn’t Morrisey just poll all Dems since they are the only ones that matter in his mind? They likely will after tonight.

Pray for America

[apillar]

Actually, I think they're using early voting as their excuse. At least, I saw that Rasmussen is claiming that 2/3 of early voters in Ohio are going for Obama. So I think Ras upped his D sample from 3% to 5% or something like that.

Then either Ras or Breitbart is wrong, Breitbart is reporting that Republicans have reduced the democrat margin in Ohio early voting by over 60% from 2008 from a +15D advantage to a +6D advantage.

Here are the numbers Breitbart is linking to...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

[jps098]

Sabato was way off in 2010, and 1994. In fact, the democrat shill is usually looking at a bowling ball.

[SeaHawkFan]

O wks got a dead cat bounce after the DNC and.Romney got a super-ball bounce after the first debate.

[Soul of the South]

Sabato has a left of center bias. A couple of weeks ago he essentially declared the race over and projected a big Obama victory.
After Romney’s post debate bounce he is having to walk his projection back. In reading his latest “Crystal Ball” I perceive he is anticipating a better Obama performance in the next debate which will be touted by the press as a great victory. I suspect he is also hoping the Dem/union/community organizer ground game and related cheating will allow Obama to prevail.

Turnout is key in Ohio and other states. If there are enough people who still care about the country, and they turn out in unprecedented numbers, enough states leaning toward Obama could shift to Romney to make victory possible even if Romney loses Ohio. I perceive the next two debates will be critical. If Ryan and Romney can convincingly communicate their message and avoid a major stumble, they could seal the election.