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NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama: 50, Romney: 45 (Rats oversampled)
Townhall.com ^ | September 18, 2012 | Daniel Doherty

Posted on 09/19/2012 3:44:06 AM PDT by Kaslin

A new NBC/WSJ poll dropped late Tuesday showing President Obama holding a five percentage point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney:

Fueled by increased optimism about the economy and nation’s direction, President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 5 points among likely voters and now sees his job-approval rating reaching the 50 percent threshold for the first time since March, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

The survey – which was conducted after the two party conventions and the political firestorm over last week’s U.S. embassy attacks, but before Romney’s controversial comments about the 47 percent of the country “who are dependent on government” – shows the percentages believing that the country is headed in the right direction and thinking that the economy will improve at their highest levels since 2009.

In the presidential horse race, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden get the support of 50 percent of likely voters, while Romney and running mate Paul Ryan get 45 percent.

Among a wider sample of registered voters, the president’s lead is 6 points, 50 percent to 44 percent – up from Obama’s 4-point edge last month, 48 percent to 44 percent.

A few key takeaways:

(1): The poll finds that the president’s approval rating on foreign policy (now 49 percent) dipped five percentage points since last August. Why? I suspect it’s because of this, this, and this.

(2) A majority of registered voters -- 55 percent -- say the country is on the wrong track, whereas just 39 percent say it’s on the right track. This bodes well for Mitt Romney.

(3) Since The One took office, more voters today believe the country is worse off (41 percent) than better off (38 percent). (Caveat: only 36 percent believe Mitt Romney is “better prepared” to lead the nation over the next four years. On the other hand, a solid majority say the same thing about President Obama).

(4) President Obama maintains a double digit lead among women, college graduates, and especially African-Americans. However, Governor Romney leads by eight percentage points among white voters, although (according to the pollsters) that margin has narrowed considerably in recent months.

In short, I think Democratic pollster Peter Hart summed up the NBC/WSJ findings best: “After a year that has looked like a two-step back-and-forth, it is clear that Barack Obama has moved a step ahead. But it is only a step.” That last sentence is crucial. Although President Obama seems to be holding a significant lead (his job approval rating, after all, has hit the 50 percent water mark for the first time since March) this race is far from over. Granted, this poll was conducted before Governor Romney’s so-called “gaffe” went viral, but that doesn’t excuse the fact that household incomes are falling, poverty rates are soaring, and 23 million Americans are unemployed, underemployed, or have stopped looking for work. The race is going to come down to the wire. To believe otherwise -- especially at this point in time -- would be a huge mistake.

UPDATE – It’s also worth mentioning that the poll boasted a D+7 sample breakdown (D+5 with likely voters). In other words, since voter turnout in 2012 will likely fall somewhere between 2008’s (D+7) and 2010’s (D+0) partisan split, this particular survey is somewhat skewed towards Democrats.

UPDATE II – Check out all the latest polls at http://townhall.com/polltracker


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls

1 posted on 09/19/2012 3:44:10 AM PDT by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

Lord have mercy. How many times is this poll gonna be posted!


2 posted on 09/19/2012 3:46:44 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: snarkytart

Your name fits you perfect. Just saying


3 posted on 09/19/2012 3:55:55 AM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: snarkytart; Kaslin
SEARCHED - ONLY FOUND KASLIN'S
4 posted on 09/19/2012 4:04:33 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Kaslin

I think a lot of the public are onto their fraudulent polling.


5 posted on 09/19/2012 4:05:49 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Kaslin

rasmussen has Mitt up by 1 yesterday... it will be by 3 later today. Suck eggs nbc... you lying propaganda machine for satan and the dnc.

LLS


6 posted on 09/19/2012 4:06:21 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("if it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
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To: onyx

Thanks dear onyx. I didn’t think there were any more


7 posted on 09/19/2012 4:06:25 AM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: Kaslin

I didn’t either and if there were, none were posted with your links and perfect format. Thanks very much, sweet Kas!


8 posted on 09/19/2012 4:10:18 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Kaslin
The two most conservative news organizations -- Fox and WSJ seem to have hired two of the most left-leaning and/or inaccurate polling firms. I don't understand why.

I weigh polling results from Rasmussen and Gallup the most, and just roll my eyes over some of these other polls. I wonder how they get any business, unless it's as difficult to fire a pollster as it is to fire a useless employee.

9 posted on 09/19/2012 4:18:00 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Kaslin

The WSJ no longer has conservative credibility. It is aligned with the National Barack Channel.


10 posted on 09/19/2012 4:19:22 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: Sooth2222

I too have wondered what the hell Fox and WSJ are doing with these left-leaning polling firms.

Rasmussen is the only one I pay attention to. But national polls don’t reflect the electoral college situation.

I used to pay attention to Gallup until a phone call from Axelrod got them to change their methodology and Zero started leading in their polls.


11 posted on 09/19/2012 4:32:13 AM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: onyx

Thanks to posts like this one, we are getting the word out about these fake polls. The lame-stream is trying their best to get conservatives to feel down-hearted and stay home on election day.

If we get to the polls like we did in 2010, then Zero will be out of a job.


12 posted on 09/19/2012 4:33:51 AM PDT by ShovelThemOut
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To: Kaslin

The results of this poll prove that, despite the factual data showing a weakening economy, the “media” owns the narrative. They direct Americans to believe in a certain direction, and like the sheep they are, they follow.

Sadly, many of our fellow Americans aren`t nearly as free as they believe themselves to be. They`ll kneel at the feet of any ruler who will give them an occasional self esteem-boosting pat on the head and a government-provided chewy treat. They`re no longer concerned with the future of the country.. or for that matter, even their own. They just have their hands out for the next government check.


13 posted on 09/19/2012 4:38:44 AM PDT by ScottinVA (If Obama is reelected, America will deserve every mockery that follows.)
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To: onyx; Kaslin

Did either of you see the vid posted a few hours ago about the Robocall Polls?

The vid showed a person letting the answering machine answer.. after a few seconds, since there was no response from the person called, the robocall continues with questions about how much they like 0bambo... I don’t have the link, but if I can find it, I will post it ;)


14 posted on 09/19/2012 4:42:34 AM PDT by Bikkuri (Hope for Conservative push in the next 2-4 years..........)
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To: ShovelThemOut

Maybe the rigged polls are being used to show people that the results are right after they try and rig the election. The voters need to overwhelm the polling places to ensure a better outcome this election. The Black Pampers are already preparing to cause problems, and we saw what the DOJ did to them after the last election NOTHING!


15 posted on 09/19/2012 4:47:36 AM PDT by toolman1401
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To: Sooth2222
I weigh polling results from Rasmussen and Gallup the most

Gallup was near the bottom of the list in terms of accuracy in 2008. Rasmussen was #1.

16 posted on 09/19/2012 5:05:55 AM PDT by KevinB (We'll stop treating Obama like a dog when he stops treating us like a fire hydrant - Fred Grandy)
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To: LibLieSlayer

It was Mitt by 2 yesterday.


17 posted on 09/19/2012 5:36:47 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: Kaslin

Last night I went to this website I heard about on HillBuzz called unskewedpolls.com. It is amazing what happens when the over sampling is scaled back R&R hold 5 point leads. I don’t buy this bs polling.


18 posted on 09/19/2012 5:48:25 AM PDT by erod (This Chicagoan will crawl over broken glass to vote the fake Chicagoan Obama out!)
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To: Kaslin
Again, if people report they are D or R how is that an "over sample".

The poll is what it is ~

19 posted on 09/19/2012 5:58:11 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Bikkuri

I didn’t see it.


20 posted on 09/19/2012 6:05:39 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Kaslin

“Fueled by increased optimism about the economy”

That’s funny, right there.


21 posted on 09/19/2012 6:16:08 AM PDT by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: onyx

I tried doing a search both here AND on Youtube.. can’t find it :/

I will keep searching.


22 posted on 09/19/2012 6:31:42 AM PDT by Bikkuri (Hope for Conservative push in the next 2-4 years..........)
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To: onyx
Found it! I was searching under Robocall instead of Robopoll...

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2932893/posts

This needs to get out to all available media..
23 posted on 09/19/2012 6:34:25 AM PDT by Bikkuri (Hope for Conservative push in the next 2-4 years..........)
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To: Kaslin
Ping for the link to the Robocall/Robopoll:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2932893/posts
24 posted on 09/19/2012 6:36:08 AM PDT by Bikkuri (Hope for Conservative push in the next 2-4 years..........)
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To: Bikkuri

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2932893/posts


25 posted on 09/19/2012 6:46:50 AM PDT by deport
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To: Sooth2222

Murdoch’s News Corp of course bought the WSJ as well.

But the Journal long has had liberal political reporting and a conservative op ed page. A strange schism, but one that would naturally happen by hiring from the 90%+ liberal pool of experienced reporters.


26 posted on 09/19/2012 6:51:03 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: Bikkuri

I don’t answer calls from numbers I don’t recognize


27 posted on 09/19/2012 8:11:47 AM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: onyx

The only poll that counts is the one on election day


28 posted on 09/19/2012 8:15:19 AM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: jersey117

Actually WSJ never did have conservative credability. One the other hand, Opinion Journal which is another part of WSJ did however if I recall correctly


29 posted on 09/19/2012 8:19:02 AM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: muawiyah

If they poll twice as many rats then they poll republicans that’s an over sampling. Get a clue!!!


30 posted on 09/19/2012 8:24:53 AM PDT by Kaslin (Acronym for OBAMA: One Big Ass Mistake America)
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To: Kaslin
No, if they randomly call people and twice as many rats as reps answer, then that's not oversampling ~ they didn't go out to poll just rats or just reps ~ but peeps.

Live with it ~ do another poll if you don't like the results. Recognize though that there've almost always been more rats than reps!

31 posted on 09/19/2012 8:27:11 AM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Kaslin

Who’s Barry going to blame when there is no oversampling of dems on election day?


32 posted on 09/19/2012 9:33:23 AM PDT by Hotlanta Mike (Resurrect the House Committee on Un-American Activities (HUAC)...before there is no America!)
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To: Bikkuri

OKay! Thanks very much.


33 posted on 09/19/2012 11:44:15 AM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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