Posted on 07/08/2012 6:06:48 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
I read this piece when it first came out. The points are even stronger today — after the Roberts Obamacare Supreme Court debacle.
Wayne Allan Root forgot about the dead and fraudulent votes. They still back Obama 100% or greater.
“Caution, never under estimate a rat backed into a corner. There will be an October surprise, that may hurt.”
A border crackdown, perhaps. Regardless, I think BO will lose, even with the traditional October surprise. I just don’t think we’ll see very much change in policy in the Pustule on the Potomac.
As far as I know there is no ‘law’ for the POTUSA as there is no ‘law’ for eligibility of congresspersons. The requirements are set/buried in the Constitution which is above any law, even those adopted to carry out the Constitution. It is the Constitution which delineates a difference for eligibility between offices. It requires in the one instance ‘natural born citizen’ for POTUSA and only ‘citizen’ for congresspersons. For ‘natural born’ many people as myself firmly believe that ‘natural born’ is bedded in the documented discussions and acceptance of the Founders which included Vattel’s reasoning for citizenship of both parents. Many people do not accept the Founders’ documented intent because the Founders were not explicit as to words in the Constitution. These persons would then have to accept that Obama is eligible baring any question of birth location that parentage is of no concern as to eligibility for POTUSA.
“I am significantly less optimistic.
Obama will:
1. win almost all the black vote
2. Win 75% of all other minorities
3. Add that to the fact that he probably will win a vast majority of those on government entitlements, which is a rapidly growing constituency.
4. Conservative support will be tepid.
To me this is a forumula for victory for the punk POTUS (God help us)”
******************
1. Yes, but their turnout will be down.
2. Mmm. 66%.
3. Yes. Definitely.
4. Of course. This is not compromise it is capitulation.
Still, I think the Massachusetts Moderate will win, though what could have been a landslide to restore liberty will be a squeaker for a reset to 2007.
“Nobody votes for the bottom of the presidential ticket anyway.”
Usually, anyway. 2008 was a bit of an anomaly.
Yeah - look at how badly things turned out the last time Republicans took over a ghastly unemployment, fuel supply, military/foreign policy, and inflation quagmire. Twelve years later, Republicans lost the WH again!
</sarcasm>We here still move in twilight. But we have one beacon to guide us that Ronald Reagan never had. We have his example.- Margaret Thatcher
We We We
You say “We” a lot.
Who is “We”?
Because as far as I can tell, We have already lost the white house regardless of whether Obama or Romney win.
Oh, when I say “We” I mean Conservatives.
Who do you mean when you say “We”?
You and I realize that the next 4 years are going to be an extremely rough row. Romney realizes it too. That is why he has said that the actions he will have to take will likely result in him being a one term president. Rubio realizes that too.
As much as I like Rubio, I don’t believe accepting the VP slot would be a great career move for him. Besides I think he wants to earn the presidency on his own, and he has time.
Since I believe that anyone can beat Obama, it won’t matter who the VP choice is. This is a 100% anti-Obama election. Let’s face it, this is not an election conservatives are going to get excited about. We will just go to the polls and do our duty. No October surprise will save him. Nor will there be enough illegals and dead voters to elect him.
I’m pretty sure Obama knows his goose is cooked. That’s why he ignores our laws and will be a dictator for the time he has left.
Oh, c'mon now, think real hard...think....I...R....
I don’t see how that would help either. After fouling up Afghanistan as badly as he has, now he drags us into another war while he simultaneously drastically cuts funding and support for the military?
Nope, Iran’s a loser for him, too.
Wow! Didn’t realize how many times I used “we”. But, when I say “we” I mean those of us who want the Kenyan, Marxist, Muslim out of the White House.
Definitely. I had friends in Chicago who voted Republican their entire life. When they died, they started voting Democrat.
And, who does your “gut” tell you will be the winner?
Ref. your Post #47: One of my sons has said the exact, same thing.
Wrong.
ALL presidents get a popularity/support bump after military action against a perceived threat.
It may not be a great bump, but supposedly little, if any, is needed.
Dang skeama; I sure hope you are right.
Thanks.
Care to cite the statute where this fantasy is located?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.