Posted on 07/08/2012 6:06:48 AM PDT by pistolpackinpapa
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or prognosticators who are either rooting for Republicans or Democrats. I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a well-known Vegas oddsmaker with one of the most accurate records of predicting political races.
Neither Obama nor Romney are my horses in the race. I believe both Republicans and Democrats have destroyed the U.S. economy and brought us to the edge of economic disaster. My vote will go to Libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson in November, whom I believe has the most fiscally conservative track record of any Governor in modern U.S. political history. Without the bold spending cuts of a Gary Johnson or Ron Paul, I don’t believe it’s possible to turnaround America.
But as an oddsmaker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Years Predictions. I predicted back then- before a single GOP primary had been held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt- that Romney would easily rout his competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predicted that the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why do most pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
*Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.
*Hispanic voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.
*Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.
*Youth voters. Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.
*Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
*Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.
*Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
*Suburban moms. The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.
*Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas oddsmaker and common sense small businessman tell me this will be a historic landslide and a world-class repudiation of Obama’s radical and risky socialist agenda. It's Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I’ll give Obama credit for one thing- he is living proof that familiarity breeds contempt.
Perhaps the mods can change it.
My bad.
I believe the true observation here is that 2012’s race is nothing compared to the 2008 race. You can probably toss out three of every ten votes that President Obama got in 2008. So the only key left in this race is a state by state electoral situation, where the President might be able to get just enough electoral vote to win. Otherwise, it’s pretty much a repeat of the Jimmy Carter loss.
Somewhere in the midst of the spring of 2013....at least a hundred books will appear to explain how President Obama lost the race. I suspect forty or fifty people are already writing their books right now.
Excellent analysis.
This is a feel good article.... I love reading good news on a Sunday morning....
Thanks
I would rather Romney pick someone who is eligible to run....Rubio is not. We act like Rubio is the only Hispanic in the United States. He will pick Portman. He has pretty much said so indirectly.
Posted long ago.....
And the Vegas oddsmakers called the SC decision strongly that Obamacare would be overturned....
How did that work out for us?
At this point, only God knows. And as usual - He ain’t tellin’.
Caution, never under estimate a rat backed into a corner. There will be an October surprise, that may hurt.
The really sad part is that the GOP-e was able to install a quisling as the presumptive nominee. A Romney presidency looks to me like 4 years of reaching across the aisle a la McCain, Dole etc.
I say liberalism/progressivism needs to be recognized as unconstitutional and outlawed. I also believe that the Klan Party (democrats) have used the Obama regime to make it impossible for America to even consider a mixed race candidate again for 100 years - sad, really because we have so many great black conservatives IMO
I agree with you. I regularly read comments following articles in many newspapers and websites. My observation is that, in 2009, after Obama was inaugurated, comments being posted were running 95-99% pro-Obama. GOP voters or conservatives were on the run. Now, in 2012, the proportion has flipped, depending on the venue. Even in the NYT and WaPO, I see anti-Obama comments, in the latter maybe 80%, in th Times, maybe 25-50%, depending on the topic. It’s been a sea change, and it gives me confidence that Americans have seen Obama and the criminal democrat party - and the criminally complicit MSM - for what they are and have done to our country. We will take it back, we wil prevail.
However, I vehemently oppose Marco Rubio as VP for two reasons, unrelated to his politics because I am behind him all the way as a Senator. First -he is much too young, and will be devastated by the MSM attacks on him from that angle. Second - he is not a natural born citizen of the US, just like Barack Obama. But, he is a conservative, so that issue will be key with the media. They will crucify him and the GOP - mark my words. He is ineligible to become POTUS.
born May 28, 1971 in Miami, FL
Parents were
Mario Rubio born in Cuba, naturalized Nov. 5, 1975.
Oria Garcia born in Cuba, naturalized Nov. 5, 1975.
Parents were NOT US Citizens at the time of his birth
Marco Rubio is NOT a NATURAL BORN CITIZEN.
Marco's status is the same as that of Barry Soetoro, aka Barack Hussein Obama, who is NOT a Natural Born Citizen.
*EBT - The EBT voters need 0bama to win and will come out in droves to vote. This group has GROWN substantially in the last 3 1/2 years, to 45 millions.
*GovtWorkers - Will vote big for the 'rat.
*Dead - There are probably millions of new dead voters that will vote 'Rat. Zer0's gift-to-his-campaign program, now to include funerals that donate voters will vote 'rat.
I probably left a bunch of others out...
[ Caution, never under estimate a rat backed into a corner. There will be an October surprise, that may hurt. ]
I can’t think of a single October surprise scenario that would help Obama.
Morning in America? Maybe not, but it feels kind of like that day of the year when the clock is turned back by an hour and you realize that there is another hour of sunlight. Heh.
Most Americans have no idea who the h@ll Rob Portman is. He may be a great conservative, but he’s a political John Doe to the overwelming majority of Americans. In otherwords, he does nothing for Romney......probably not even in Ohio.
BTW, for our education, can you tell us what US law tells us that both your parents must be citizens at the time of your birth for you to be considered natural born?
I had posted the list of the top 10 things I've heard people say which indicate they will NOT vote for Obama (without directly saying they won't) somewhere in the last month or so on this forum. One of the things I said at that time that you won't hear this election is this: "I didn't vote for Obama in 2008, but I plan to in 2012."
You won't hear a single person saying that. In fact, you hear the exact opposite, along with these other "key indicators" which perhaps you'll recognize:
•It's none of anyone's business who I'm voting for this time.
•I haven't made up my mind yet.
•I think Obama's a likeable guy.
•I'm concerned about the economy.
•My kid who graduated college last year still can’t find a job.
•I'm concerned about my family's well being.
•I'm doing ok, but my friends are really hurting economically.
•My home value has dropped so much these last few years, and there's no end in sight.
•I'm afraid I'll never be able to retire.
All the above are a sure sign that the person stating them will NOT be voting for Obama, and I've been hearing alot of people say the above for many months now.
An unemployment rate above 8% 41 straight months is a sure fire way to lose an election. To understand just how bad 41 straight months of 8%+ unemployment really is, in the last 60 years, there's only been 39 months TOTAL of unemployment over 8%. Worst Economy Ever.
Marxists don't relinquish power in a well behaved manner and as always the will of the people be damned
.
We have had enough of these amatures. One can only hope that in the years to come we sik the dogs on these anti Americans and prosecute them for crimes against the American people.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.