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Insider Advantage Poll - Florida (Newt 34, Mitt 25) ^ | 1/22/12 | staff

Posted on 01/22/2012 8:24:17 PM PST by TexasFreeper2009

Gingrich 34.4 Romney 25.6

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; elections; fl2012; florida; gingrich; newt; poll; romney; teapartyrebellion
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To: The Cajun; hoosiermama
They have greatly underestimated true conservatives and the tea party.

I think it is time to buy stock in popcorn. The head shrinks will have to diagnose a new 'derangement syndrome' for the DC Beltway and Main Stream Media Establishment crowd. LoL.

FR posted article -

Schmidt: GOP Establishment Will Have A Meltdown If Newt Wins Florida


"Schmidt: "Not only are we not moving toward a coalescing of support with the establishment of Newt Gingrich, we're probably moving toward a declaration of war on Newt Gingrich by the Republican establishment. And if Newt Gingrich is able to win the Florida primary, you will see a panic and a meltdown of the Republican establishment that is beyond my ability to articulate in the English language. People will go crazy,"

And you will have this five week period until the Super Tuesday states that will be just as unpredictable, tumultuous as any period in modern American politics. It will be a remarkable thing to watch, should that happen in Florida." "

81 posted on 01/22/2012 9:33:51 PM PST by Red Steel
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To: JediJones
I think that Newt actually had enough votes to remain speaker, but I heard he just said privately, that he had had it - he didn't want to lead a bunch of cannibals.

The Dems and media were on him almost constantly, best I remember. It was also reported on the news that he felt that the media coverage of him was distracting from the things that needed to get done, and he felt that he needed to resign so that legislation could move forward.

82 posted on 01/22/2012 9:35:04 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Romney has the money..

...but Newt has the hearts and minds of the troops on the ground!

Sorry Mitt, but money alone can’t buy everything.

83 posted on 01/22/2012 9:35:15 PM PST by Livfreeordi
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To: willk

“-and hello 4 more years of obamanation.”

Really? Methinks not. Newt can be quirky, but fantastically so.

Given Newt’s voting and policy record, more voters will take a chance on him than you might expect. Union folk too!

Obama is defecting from us all.

84 posted on 01/22/2012 9:35:15 PM PST by Bshaw (A nefarious deceit is upon us all!)
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To: TexasFreeper2009

Romney has the money..

...but Newt has the hearts and minds of the troops on the ground!

Sorry Mitt, but money alone can’t buy everything.

85 posted on 01/22/2012 9:35:20 PM PST by Livfreeordi
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To: TitansAFC

Great news!

86 posted on 01/22/2012 9:36:29 PM PST by Amntn
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To: mr_griz

What’s happening is the lies and scurrilous, unsupported insinuations that characterized Romney’s SuperPAC ads are now coming right out of his mouth. He is now trying to say according to the Politico and WashPost articles that because Newt worked for Freddie Mac, and Freddie Mac was instrumental in the housing crisis, that Newt might have had something to do with the housing market collapse and he needs to release his contracts so we can see what he did there.

Wow. Talk about going a bridge too far. Hard to believe many people will be that gullible to think Newt was connected to the housing market collapse.

87 posted on 01/22/2012 9:37:07 PM PST by JediJones (Newt-er Romney in 2012!)
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To: sissyjane

I can’t see a guy that whines like Santorum as Commander in Chief.

88 posted on 01/22/2012 9:37:26 PM PST by Yankee (ANNOY THE RNC AND THE MEDIA: NOMINATE NEWT GINGRICH!)
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To: greeneyes

Well, it’s almost identical to the reasons Sarah Palin resigned in that case, since she was being hounded with ethics charges and negative media attention that she said was a distraction. With the possible exception that she wanted to capitalize on her media fame in the entertainment/media industry before her 15 minutes were up.

89 posted on 01/22/2012 9:41:11 PM PST by JediJones (Newt-er Romney in 2012!)
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To: Livfreeordi

Money can’t by mitt love.

90 posted on 01/22/2012 9:41:40 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Rebellion is not just brewing, rebellion is here!!)
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To: bray

“Coulter is on her second box of wine tonight.

Pray for America.”

Sad, because I’ve always liked Ann Coulter and wished she was on our side over this.

Does anyone know why she went so nuts over Romney?

91 posted on 01/22/2012 9:43:22 PM PST by Livfreeordi
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To: bigbob

I saw that, too! Romney out and out lied about Newt Gingrich’s record, and the whole time he had on his ‘stalker’ smirk.

92 posted on 01/22/2012 9:44:22 PM PST by SatinDoll (NO FOREIGN NATIONALS AS OUR PRESIDENT!)
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To: Red Steel

“Schmidt: GOP Establishment Will Have A Meltdown If Newt Wins Florida”

Jim Geraghty January 23, 2012 4:00 A.M.

What the Sunshine State Will Illuminate

Five key factors in what happened this weekend in the South Carolina primary, and five key factors in what will occur eight days from now in the Florida primary:


One: The rapidity of the Romney collapse. Since the race began to take shape in early-to-mid 2011, Mitt Romney has been mocked for having a glass jaw. In both Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney and his backers could scoff at the claim, pointing out that he had (seemingly) won Iowa and overwhelmingly won New Hampshire, not to mention that polls showed him leading in South Carolina and Florida, as well as nationally. Of the first 40 Republican-primary polls released by any pollster, either nationwide or in any state in 2012, Mitt Romney led 38 of them.

And then ­ POOF! At one point, Romney led Gingrich by ten percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average; on Saturday he lost by twelve percentage points. Nationally, he led Gingrich by 23 in the Gallup national tracking poll; on Sunday, he led Gingrich by five.

What’s even more striking is that the issues that tripped up Romney were so predictable and, seemingly, mundane ­ compared with, say, bombshell claims from an ex-wife or claims of sexual harassment or a seemingly off-the-cuff remark that a vaccine causes retardation. Romney was flayed over both the alleged layoffs at companies purchased and managed by Bain Capital, and the issue of his unreleased tax returns. Both of these topics were big issues not merely in Romney’s 2002 gubernatorial campaign, but his 1994 Senate run. How does a candidate get blindsided by 18-year-old handicaps?

Two: How far bashing the mainstream media has taken Newt Gingrich. It was a sly joke on primary night: Will Gingrich thank Marianne Gingrich, Juan Williams, or John King first? But, as with most jokes, we laugh because it contains a kernel of truth.

Juan Williams suggested that, because the African-Americans he heard from were offended by Gingrich’s comments about inner-city youth, the former speaker owed them an apology. Newt slam-dunked it, sneering that liberals cannot handle “facts that are inconvenient,” such as the number of Americans who on food stamps during Obama’s presidency. The knee-jerk accusations of racism are perhaps the aspect of the modern Left that infuriates grassroots conservatives most, and, in Gingrich, they saw the fearless, unapologetic rebuke to that thinking they had been yearning to hear for years.

Marianne Gingrich’s claim, and John King’s opening debate question about it, should have, on paper, created bigger headaches for Gingrich. But the former speaker knows, as almost any Republican with any memory from before 2008 knows, that these stories have a context. Nearly every conservative marveled at the media’s excuse-making for Bill Clinton throughout his presidency, the astonishing disinterest in John Edwards’s philandering on the 2004 campaign trail, and the ridiculous way Eliot Spitzer was seemingly instantly rewarded with a prime-time television show. Newt’s response was, in effect, that the only reason King ­ and the rest of the media ­ cares about his ex-wife’s claims is that he is a Republican, not that it is inherently newsworthy.

Of course, Gingrich’s dudgeon leaves a few questions open: If a former spouse of a presidential candidate makes a head-turning claim, should the media not report it? Should they not ask the candidate about it? And, if it’s outrageous to make this topic the first question of the debate, how many minutes into the debate should the subject have been broached?

Gingrich even cast his victory as a message to the media in his victory speech on Saturday night: “In the two debates that we had ­ here in Myrtle Beach and then in Charleston ­ people reacted so strongly to the news media. I think it was something very fundamental that I wish the powers that be in the news media would take seriously.”

A great many Republicans believe that the media is their real foe, or at least that the media is primarily responsible for Obama’s victory in 2008. But voters outside the Republican base may be much, much less concerned with the issue of media bias, and it’s doubtful that the low-information independent and swing voters who tend to decide elections share that fury.

Three: The continuing irrelevance of Iowa. In the Hawkeye State, Rick Santorum pulled off the most unlikely of upsets, presented a feel-good underdog story in the first major contest of the 2012 cycle, and . . . he saw a relatively small impact on his numbers in New Hampshire. (They were raised from about 3 percent to 9 percent). Perhaps that can be explained historically: Iowa and New Hampshire rarely agree, and Granite State Republicans are usually extremely reluctant to confirm Iowa’s choice. But in South Carolina, Santorum jumped from 3 percent to 20 percent . . . and then slid down to around 12 percent in the final polls, finishing with an acceptable ­ but uninspiring ­ 17 percent on Saturday night.

Santorum seems to be repeating the experience of Mike Huckabee, who also couldn’t translate an Iowa win into many significant victories in the subsequent states. This cycle has given critics of Iowa’s prominence a great deal of ammunition, but even if the state’s turnout had been higher and the count had been clear and no ballots had been lost, a definite pattern would remain: The rest of the country just isn’t all that enamored with the candidates Iowa likes best. Perhaps the state’s love of retail politicking and lavish personal attention from candidates is to blame, since candidates obviously can’t duplicate their 99-county tours in subsequent states.

Four: Ron Paul’s Achilles’ heel is not his foreign-policy views, it is closed primaries. Ron Paul’s support among veterans in South Carolina, according to exit polls, was 12 percent. His support overall: 13 percent.

That said, Ron Paul won 21.4 percent of the vote in the open caucus and 22.9 percent in the open primary, and then tumbled to just 13 percent in South Carolina’s closed primary. Open presidential primaries remain in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Hawaii, Indiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Other states are considered “semi-closed” or permit voters to change their party affiliation on Election Day.

Ron Paul is going to end the 2012 Republican presidential primary with a big pile of delegates. He came in second in ten states last cycle and third in 17 others. (Delegate-allocation rules for each state can be found here.)

Five: South Carolina presented the Republican-turnout surge we’ve been waiting for. At first glance, the stage seems set for a GOP fired up like never before: A president who many Republicans see as the breathing embodiment of liberalism sits in the Oval Office; an energetic grassroots movement to fight back spontaneously formed in the tea parties; the 2009 races in New Jersey and Virginia, the special election in Massachusetts, and the 2010 midterms all showed that Republicans can win (and win big) almost anywhere when they tap into that passion; the president’s record consists of enormously unpopular nationalized health care and a stimulus that didn’t make a dent in high unemployment. Throw in scandals such as those involving Solyndra and Fast and Furious, and Obama’s presidency represents the nightmare that every Republican would presumably be highly motivated to end.

The good news for Republicans is that, in 2012, turnout has been modestly higher, but less than one might think in this seeming perfect storm for conservative outrage. In Iowa and New Hampshire, the modest increases over the 2008 records appeared to have been driven mostly by Ron Paul’s not-really-Republican voters.

But in South Carolina, that energized grassroots finally appeared at polling places in big numbers: “With 13 precincts still uncounted Sunday morning, 601,166 votes already were recorded, topping 2000’s record turnout of 537,101 and well ahead of 2008’s 445,499 voters. Earlier in the week, officials had projected a moderate turnout about equivalent to the 2008 primary.” Both Gingrich and Romney won more votes than John McCain did when he won the state in 2008.


Five thoughts about the Republican presidential primary’s next big contest: Florida, on January 31.

One: So far, this election cycle is validating state efforts to move their primaries earlier. Each cycle, candidates, campaigns, media, and voters lament that the campaigns start ever earlier and that the general-election battle stretches on for too many months. But not only has no force in politics figured out how to stop this trend, but the current punishments imposed by the Republican National Committee have no significant effect.

The RNC punished five states that went “too early” by taking away half their delegates ­ New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan ­ and yet no candidate pursued these states’ voters any less intently. Nor are there signs that anyone within those states seems to mind. (Iowa does not lose its delegates, because they are not officially allocated until the state convention in June.) The candidates showered New Hampshire with as much attention with twelve delegates at stake as they would have with 24 delegates at stake.

“What is coming to fruition is what we hoped for when we moved Florida’s date up to January 31,” said state representative Dean Cannon, the speaker of the Florida house of representatives. “The first three states are effectively whittling down the field, and Florida will be the one that ultimately decides the nominee. We are raising Florida’s prominence in deciding the nominee.”

Supporters of Michele Bachmann, Jon Huntsman, and Rick Perry outside the first three states never got a chance to cast a meaningful vote for their candidate. While all of the remaining candidates declare they’re in it for the long haul, those pledges can turn to vapor. (See Huntsman’s declaration in New Hampshire that he had “a ticket to ride.”) The race will undoubtedly go on beyond Florida, but the Sunshine State will either reestablish Romney as the frontrunner, or deliver a devastating defeat.

Two: Running for president in Florida is on an entirely different scale than the preceding states. South Carolina represents the end of the primary season’s period of retail politicking. Last cycle, roughly 800,000 people voted in the GOP contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina; and then 1.9 million voted in the Republican primary in Florida. Already this year, the number of absentee ballots mailed in ( 185,000) exceeds the total number of votes in this year’s Iowa caucus (122,000). Moreover, Florida has 4 million registered Republicans.

“We’re incredibly diverse, the fourth most populous state in the country, and you have to run a real broad-based popular campaign ­ organization, grassroots, media, TV, phones, the works,” Cannon says. “We’re an extraordinarily diverse state, economically, demographically and geographically. You’ll see everything in Florida, from debates about controlling federal spending to Social Security to national defense ­ we have a large number of military bases ­ to strong views on immigration. We are a great composite of every major issue that will confront the nominee in a national campaign.”

Three: Expect attention to return to the economy, particularly the housing market. While South Carolina had high unemployment rates, Florida Republicans are likely to be even more focused on jobs and the economy, particularly the troubles in the housing market, the high rate of foreclosures, and the overall difficulty Americans have in buying and selling homes.

As Bloomberg reported, “Florida’s economic health has declined by 12.4 percent since the first quarter of 2009, when Obama was inaugurated, according to the Bloomberg Economic Evaluation of States. The state’s home prices have declined 22.5 percent in the period.” Mind you, by 2008, the housing bubble had already burst.

Four: Expect Newt Gingrich to be aiming squarely at retirees. Newt Gingrich’s best age demographic in Iowa: those 65 and older (17 percent, second only to Romney).

Newt Gingrich’s best age demographic in New Hampshire: those 65 and older (14 percent, third behind Romney and Huntsman).

Newt Gingrich’s best age demographic in South Carolina: those 65 and older (47 percent, winning by a wide margin).

In 2008, one third of Florida’s Republican primary electorate was age 65 or older. Romney lost that demographic; he garnered 31 percent of the vote, compared with 41 percent for John McCain.

Five: Primary Day is really Primary Week. As mentioned above, early and absentee voting has been swift. Perhaps 10 percent of all of the Florida primary’s ballots were filled out before the South Carolina results.

Early voting began on Saturday, which means that at least one day’s worth of early votes were cast before news of Gingrich’s big win arrived last night.

With early voting continuing through Saturday, the impact of late-breaking arguments, debate performances, television commercials, charges, gaffes, and other events lessens slightly with each passing day.

Thus, if Romney and Gingrich intend to go on the attack, there is no point in delaying: The pool of persuadable GOP-primary voters will shrink slightly each day. Expect fireworks at Monday’s debate on NBC. On Thursday, CNN hosts another, which may be the last shot for whoever is in second place in this week’s polls to close the gap.

­ Jim Geraghty writes the Campaign Spot on NRO.

93 posted on 01/22/2012 9:44:49 PM PST by Matchett-PI ("One party will generally represent the envied, the other the envious. Guess which ones." ~GagdadBob)
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To: All

Miami Herald
What Gingrich’s S.C. Romney-stomping means for FL’s ‘battle royale’

94 posted on 01/22/2012 9:46:22 PM PST by Matchett-PI ("One party will generally represent the envied, the other the envious. Guess which ones." ~GagdadBob)
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To: Livfreeordi

Mitt needs a new campaign theme song:

The Beatles - Can’t Buy Me Love (Live)

95 posted on 01/22/2012 9:46:47 PM PST by JediJones (Newt-er Romney in 2012!)
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To: JediJones

It’s tough to be a warrior for the people. Newt knew exactly what he was in for. He has been very determined. I don’t think he’ll quit, they’ll have to take him out.JMO.

96 posted on 01/22/2012 9:48:03 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: willk
If nominated Gingrich will give one of the most articulate, imaginative and forceful election eve concession speeches ever.
97 posted on 01/22/2012 9:53:28 PM PST by Dagnabitt ("None of the above" ain't running.)
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To: greeneyes

I was just referring to him resigning in 1998. I definitely don’t think he’ll quit the primary unless they have to carry him out on a stretcher. I think he’s battle-tested from the ‘90s and ready to deal with anything that’s thrown at him.

Newt needs to refer to these statements by Romney when Romney brings up the housing collapse and Freddie Mac:

Romney says foreclosures should “hit the bottom”

In an interview published Tuesday ahead of presidential debate, Romney told Las Vegas Review Journal’s editorial board that solving the foreclosure crisis would require letting banks proceed against homeowners who have defaulted on their mortgages. New investors could then rent out the homes until markets adjusted.

“As to what to do for the housing industry specifically and are there things that you can do to encourage housing: One is, don’t try to stop the foreclosure process. Let it run its course and hit the bottom,” Romney said.

98 posted on 01/22/2012 9:54:51 PM PST by JediJones (Newt-er Romney in 2012!)
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To: Ingtar
Santorum has lost his best hope to Newt in SC

He's also destroyed his political career.

99 posted on 01/22/2012 9:54:57 PM PST by Cobra64 (Common sense isn't common anymore.)
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To: TexasFreeper2009
Now that's what I'm talkin' about!
100 posted on 01/22/2012 9:57:08 PM PST by expat1000
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