Opinion: History Says Mitt's the Man for 2012

AOL News ^ | 11/29/10 | Michael Medved

[Rome2000]

Opinion: History Says Mitt's the Man for 2012

Michael Medved Contributor AOL News (Nov. 29) -- Conventional wisdom says the battle for the GOP nomination in 2012 is wide open and unpredictable, but Republican history suggests that there is an obvious front runner who is nearly certain to represent his party in the presidential race.

For nearly 70 years -- long before most of the current contenders were even born -- GOP leaders and primary voters have displayed a shockingly consistent tendency to pick a candidate whose previous national campaign, whether successful or not, suggested it was "his turn."

This means that with very rare exceptions, Republicans choose a sitting president or vice president or else the runner-up in the previous nomination fight. Consider:

Thomas E. Dewey: Dewey had been runner-up (to Wendell Willkie) at the 1940 convention, and four years later the 42-year-old candidate won an almost unanimous vote for the nomination. He lost to FDR in a surprisingly close race in the midst of World War II. Because of his youth and his previous national campaign, Dewey became the heir apparent four years later, but lost to Harry Truman in one of the epic upsets of American political history.

Richard Nixon: President Dwight Eisenhower's loyal two-term vice president, Nixon got the nomination by acclamation in 1960 and lost a squeaker race to John F. Kennedy. This meant that he ran three times as part of a competitive national ticket before he claimed the nomination again in 1968 and went on to win the presidency.

Ronald Reagan: In 1976, Reagan put up a strong challenge to President Gerald Ford's nomination and so could make the case that the party owed him a shot in 1980 -- when he captured both the nomination and the White House easily.

George H.W. Bush: As runner-up to Reagan in the fight for the presidential nomination in 1980, Bush got the consolation prize of the vice presidency and became the obvious choice for Republicans in 1988.

Bob Dole: The Senate majority leader ran for vice president with Ford in 1976, then was runner-up to Bush in the 1988 primaries; inevitably, he drew the presidential nod in 1996.

George W. Bush: In 2000, after two embattled terms of Bill Clinton, the closest thing to an heir apparent for Republicans was Gov. Bush of Texas, the son of a prior president.

John McCain: Considering the clear GOP pattern, it should have surprised no one that the candidate George W. Bush beat for the 2000 nomination -- Sen. McCain of Arizona -- seized the prize in 2008, despite a good deal of intraparty grumbling about his "maverick" reputation.

Only Two Exceptions

Since the early 1940s, there have only been two exceptions to the Republican instinct to crown the heir apparent. Ohio Sen. Robert Taft, widely acclaimed as "Mr. Republican," sought the nomination against Dewey in 1948 and could easily make the case that it was "his turn" in 1952 -- but he lost the presidential nomination to the peerless war hero, Gen. Eisenhower.

And in 1964, Sen. Barry Goldwater of Arizona ran a successful insurgent conservative campaign against "the Eastern Establishment" of "country club" Republicans, and went on to lose 44 states to incumbent President Lyndon Johnson. In fact, this one uncharacteristic Republican experiment with a "surprise" nominee worked out so badly that in the last 45 years the GOP has never tried again.

Unlike Republicans, Democrats have nominated several dark-horse candidates in recent years, but with decidedly mixed results. Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, though little known when they began their campaigns, won resounding victories, but not so George McGovern. The senator from the sparsely populated state of South Dakota became the Democratic nominee in 1972 but went on to lose 49 of 50 states (including South Dakota). The one-term governor of Georgia, Jimmy Carter, emerged as the unexpected nominee in '76 and won a close race for the White House, but became a deeply unpopular one-term president.

Yes, the GOP could select from an array of appealing and promising fresh faces in 2012 -- Govs. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Chris Christie of New Jersey and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana; and Sen. John Thune of, yes, South Dakota.

But the most likely outcome by far would see the GOP reverting to form and selecting this year's well-known heir apparent: former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Romney came close to wresting the nomination from McCain two years ago and ran a credible, well-financed national campaign.

Sponsored Links His most serious opposition might come from two other figures who ran national campaigns last time: Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin. But Huckabee's 2008 run, powered by his formidable communications skills, suffered consistently from limited financial resources, and he's made little progress in building his fundraising base.

Palin also inspired millions of Republicans after her selection as the vice presidential nominee, but with a series of rookie gaffes and a polarizing persona, her one experience as a national candidate can hardly qualify as an unmitigated success.

Newt Gingrich is another potential candidate for 2012, but as former House speaker he hardly qualifies as a fresh face, nor has he been around the track as a candidate for national office, so that he lacks the kind of credibility that seems particularly important to Republicans.

Romney remains the safe choice -- last time's runner-up for the nomination, and a mainstream conservative generally acceptable to many tea party insurgents as well as veteran office-holders.

Most of all, the suave and savvy candidate has history on his side. The last two generations prove that Republicans award their nomination to the obvious guy who's next in line.

For 2012, that means Mitt's the man.

[goldstategop]

I think its going to be Romney. No one else has his organization, skills and talent. Unless someone else makes a good run, history says Romney is the presumptive favorite to beat.

[chemicalman]

Source = AOL...go figure.

[AFreeBird]

Will never vote for the Myth.

The whole idea of an annointed - it’s his turn now - process, is a big part of the problem.

I don’t think the cocktail party crowd has read the memo. I know we sent one out earlier this month. Didn’t they read it?

No more!

[samtheman]

My nightmare scenario is that Romney and Palin will split the anti-Obama vote (with one of them running as a third party candidate) and Obama will win again.

Very early in the primary season, one or more of the Republican candidates should call on ALL Republican candidates to take the No Third Party Pledge.

By running in the Republican Primary I hereby pledge not to later run as a third party candidate or as a write-in candidate.

Severely castigate and refuse to debate with those who don't take the pledge.

[goldstategop]

You can’t argue with Republican history. The Party could nominate a fresh face but that’s not likely give its stated preference for the safe choice. In modern times, Eisenhower and Goldwater were the exceptions to that rule.

[Non-Sequitur]

Romney remains the safe choice...

And as the story related the 'safe choice' tended to get creamed in the election. Unless we want another 4 years of Obama then I suggest that in this case the safe choice is the wrong choice.

[hershey]

Mitt has a couple of albatrosses around his neck...his flip flopping on abortion and denial that Mass Health isn’t socialized medicine. The latter, by the way, is bankrupting MA. Also Mitt’s a Mormon, which spooks enough people to affect the outcome. If he got the nomination, millions of republicans would stay home or vote for a third party candidate — presumably the tea partiers would nominate someone — and Obama would win. A dem. dream.

[NTHockey]

Yes please, by all means choose the safe candidate. That has worked SO well in the past./s

Nominating Romney gaurantees 0bambi a second term. Conservatives will no longer hold their nose and back the Party’s nominee, irrespective of philosophy.

[Caipirabob]

“Mittcare” Romney is history, alright. Hope he enjoys a long career lending voice to conservative causes, because he’s not done anything towards following the basic principles. If he did, it was all canceled out by his tyrannical socialist deathcare program that crushed MA citizens under the burden of state’s whims.

[goldstategop]

I would say good luck. You don’t to convince committed conservatives - you’re going to have to convince Republican voters who are not Freepers. They take a different view of it from us on here.

[mcmuffin]

Medved’s an azzhat.

His perception of Romney is similar to his views on illegal immigration.

Just flat out WRONG !

[Non-Sequitur]

. You don’t to convince committed conservatives - you’re going to have to convince Republican voters who are not Freepers.

The committed voters are the ones who turn out for primaries and caucuses. Romney does have his work cut out for him in appealing to them. Plus he's a known quantity. The way he wins is by destroying his opponents and that is a very risky strategy.

[Graybeard58]

He’d be great over at Treasury

5th in line of presidential succession? No thanks. Way to damn'd close.

I like another member's suggestion better - make him Secretary of Horticulture.

[hal ogen]

I think medved is an Assclown. romney is a socialist who loves his mittcare abomination. Losers both.

[Diogenesis]

Oh, how the ObamaBOTs LOVE their Mitt Romney (GOP Backstabber Extraordinaire)

Mitt RomneyCARE (D, Shapeshifter): "I'm not running as the Republican view or a continuation of Republican values.
That's not what brings me to the race.
(Backstabber Romney Video, accessed 9/19/07)

"We don't intend to turn the Republican Party
 over to the traitors in the battle just ended.
We will have no more of those candidates who are pledged
 to the same goals as our opposition and who seek our support.
Turning the Party over to the so-called moderates
wouldn’t make any sense at all.""
--  President Ronald Reagan

---

Romney (Carpetbagger shapeshifter, D, RINO): ”I'm very clear I think, to the people across the Commonwealth
my "R" didn't stand so much for Republican as it does for reform."
(Flip-flop chameleon artiste and Mitt RomneyCARE
Video, accessed 9/19/07)

"A political party cannot be all things to all people.
It must represent certain fundamental beliefs
 which must not be compromised to political expediency
or simply to swell its numbers."
--  President Ronald Reagan

[Diogenesis]

---

Romney has thrown Elections 2008 and 2010 to the DNC when he can.

In 2008, the McCain/Palin ticket was up ++4 to 10 pts. in some polls, days prior to the election.
So rather than helping the GOP, Romney once again
had his backstabbing TeamROMNEY
attack Gov. Palin to throw Election2008 to the DNC.

---

Late in October, The American Spectator's The Prowler revealed:
"Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers…
have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election.
'Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won't be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012,'
says one former Romney aide…
'The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney.
"Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a 'diva' and was going off message intentionally."

---

"Frum was indeed a critic of Palin, calling her nomination a "huge mistake" during an October 13 (2008, weeks before the election) Early Show appearance."

---

David Frum: "Two of our most plausible candidates for president in 2012 are leading Mormons: Mitt Romney and Utah governor Jon Huntsman."

---

David Frum: "I have a lot of regard for Mitt Romney as a man and politician… I will support him without qualm."

---

Kathleen Parker: "[I]t is increasingly clear that Palin is a problem." "Parker ... says something publicly that many of us have thought privately
but lacked the courage to say out loud - Palin should step down:"

---

"Kathleen Parker: After Interviews, Palin Should Bow Out"

---

Kathleen Parker: "Romney would bring more than squeaky clean qualifications
and youthful good looks to the ticket.
Romney would seem a logical choice."

---

"Parker: Romney raised bar on freedoms"
Kathleen Parker: "If Kennedy's speech was an important landmark in American political history,
Romney's was surpassing. With heartfelt humility and poetic eloquence,
he tracked the nation's struggle with and for freedom."

---

Staggering bigotry of Kathleen Parker - UPDATED"

---

Who benefits most from Sanford meltdown? Californian (that's right) Mitt Romney

---

"Peeking Out From the McCain Wreckage: Mitt Romney"

"Someone's got to say it: IS MITT ROMNEY RESPONSIBLE FOR OBAMA'S VICTORY?"

"Vanity: Team Romney Sabotaged Palin and Continuing to Do So?"

"Romney Supporters Trashing Palin"

"Romney advisors sniping at Palin?"

---

[missnry]

Romney remains the safe choice

THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DNC AND THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

[Diogenesis]

Perpetual backstabber Romney has a HISTORY of lying about endorsements
and making up FAKE ENDORSEMENTS.

Typical Romney falsehood: "I also was pleased to have the support of the NRA when I ran for governor."

Typical Romney falsehood: "I told you what my position was, and what I, what I did as governor; the fact that I received the endorsement of the NRA."

The truth:

Romney: "“That’s not going to make me the hero of the NRA”
Boston Herald (1994)

Romney: " “I don’t line up with the NRA.”
Boston Globe, January 14, 2007

---

More Truth about Romney faking endorsements:

"Behind the empty gestures and deceptive rhetoric, Romney was not pro-life
or a defender of marriage by any stretch of the imagination.
He was a disaster," said O'Gorman, of the board for Massachusetts Citizens for Life.
He said Romney "deceptively" claims to have been awarded
a pro-life award from the group.

"The award Romney arranged for himself with the local Pioneer Valley Chapter
was the Mullins Award for Political Leadership, not a pro-life award
and not approved by MCFL's state board of directors," he said.
"We're blowing the whistle to warn voters…"

[Family leaders call Romney 'disaster' - Letter criticizes 'deceptive rhetoric' around candidate]

---

Myth Romney, plagiarist, taking credit for Duncan Hunter's fence, without attribution.

[Roklok]

Hey, don’t you all realize that it is Mitt’s turn now. Just like it was for Dole and McCain.

[Graybeard58]

Plus, that some special powers can be attributed to underwear is about on par with Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny!

Are you telling me that you believe that Santa and the Easter Bunny aren't real?

(Just my way of bumping the thread)