Posted on 07/16/2010 6:27:42 PM PDT by speciallybland
Our monthly look at who GOP voters prefer as their 2012 nominee finds that Sarah Palin is the most popular potential Republican hopeful with the base...but that she finishes just fourth when it comes to who they want as their nominee. For the first time Newt Gingrich is the leader in this poll with 23%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 21%, Mitt Romney at 19%, Palin at 17%, and Ron Paul at 7%.
70% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Palin, putting her tops. That's followed by Huckabee at 64%, Gingrich at 63%, and Romney at 59%. But only 24% of the GOP loyalists who like Palin list her as their top choice for the 2012 nomination. Gingrich is ahead even though he's not as popular because 34% with a positive opinion name him as their top choice for the nomination. That figure is 31% for Romney and 28% for Huckabee. There is a significant disconnect between liking Palin and thinking she should be President, and that's one of the biggest things she'll have to overcome if she does end up getting into the race.
Angry white men were credited for making Gingrich Speaker of the House in 1994 and they're propelling him to the lead in this poll. He gets 26% from them with Romney at 20% and Huckabee and Palin both at 17%. Huckabee has the advantage with women at 26% to 19% for Gingrich, 18% for Romney, and 17% for Palin.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Gag,
Go away Newt, you went out of favor with Grunge music and the Macarena.
Palin is my number one on ideology. But I need to see some improvement in her debating skills.
So, the media wants one of two rinos: Gingrich or Romney.
Gingrich leads, morale bleeds.
Yeah, right, sure.
Dear Newt:
You cheat on your wives and allow the Clintons to blackmail you. You betray the Republican revolution of 1994.
You suck.
Go away. Anybody who would follow you is a fool. Those who do not study history will repeat it. I will not repeat following a fool like you.
So, the media wants one of two rinos: Gingrich or Romney.
*************
Hmmm, which shall I order? The crustacean loaf leftovers or the fresh slithering reptile?
I’ll take the crustacean loaf. I hate the way it repeats on me but if the reptile did too it would be insufferable.
Here it comes again. We get told who is going to be the nominee whether we like it or not. Just like 2000 with Bush and 2008 with McCain. These are your candidates: now go vote for the anointed loser of “your” choice.
Gingrich.Isn’t he the POS that served divorce papers on his wife when she was in the hospital fighting cancer?Well the hell with him.
The more people hear from Palin, the more they will want here as the nominee.
The exact opposite will be true for Gingrich.
So where’s Newt’s executive experience?
“Here it comes again. We get told who is going to be the nominee whether we like it or not. Just like 2000 with Bush and 2008 with McCain. These are your candidates: now go vote for the anointed loser of “your” choice.”
Exactly. Be vigilant. If the 2012 candidate is pushed by the insider party boys, and they say we have to “come together” behind their candidate early, you’ll know who to oppose.
BUMP.
The same place as McCain’s?
Hey Newt,
We no longer play by those rules of professional politicians that get the lame stream media behind them.
We’ll chose our candidates, thank you very much.
Dede Scozzafava strongly supports Newt.
Good grief. The media keep manufacturing bad images for Sarah Palin, but so far she is far and away the best of the candidates.
As a thread posted here a couple of minutes after this one points out, the media all said the same thing about Ronald Reagan. Hollywood star. Empty suit. Unelectable.
Sure. Well, I’ve watched Sarah Palin talk, and I’ve read her book, and she strikes me as smart and trustworthy, a natural born leader with real moral principles—like Reagan.
I like Palin, she just doesn’t have what it takes. I believe Obama would have a lock on 8 years. I could easily vote for Newt. I voted for McCain and didn’t like it, I can vote for Newt much easier.
That and a voice and speech coach; as she is now, she's nothing more than fodder for the MSM (and lest we fool ourselves, the Networks still control the airways - bigtime).
I thought that was interesting too. What's also interesting is the "cross-tab" results for age. Mitt Romney does best with the 18-29 demo. That struck me as particularly odd - Mitt Romney appeals to the youth?, maybe it's a "hair" thing.
Also, Gingrich does poorly with the kids, but he does very well with the over 65 crowd. This could be important looking at the primaries, because these are the people who vote no matter what. I'm sure this dynamic will change exponentially once the debates start. That might also be the time where some of those who aren't polled, like Pawlenty, either sink or swim.
This polling organization is shilling for Newt and floating balloons.
Newt, you are one smart guy but you lack a backbone and direction.
It seems your opinion changes with the wind and fortune.
No thanks.
They sure want to snooker republicans into making a fatal mistake. Supporting Mr G would sure do it.
“Angry white men were credited for making Gingrich Speaker of the House in 1994”
Oh, no slant there.
Newt can talk great, and makes a great teacher, but I don't trust executive power in his hands.
I'd vote for Daniels over Gingrich. He's been proven as a Governor and has fiscal management skills which are way more important at this time in history than being a blowhard IMO.
Yup.
Isn’t it ironic that, in the past 5 days, Newt has suddenly become the flavor du jour??? Newt’s people must be working overtime.
She kicked Biden's butt in the only VP debate in the 2008 campaign. I've watched several of her debates in AK gubernatorial races, in which she did just fine. What other debates do you have in mind in which she did poorly? i'll only admit that she didn't get too many words in on O'Reilly the other day, but who does with Mr. "Legend in his own mind" BOR?
quit playing dumb and I’ll quit treating you as such.
This is the same crowd that push the lie that Juan was ahead from out of no where. I don’t believe this propaganda BS. Elites just gaming the system for their RINOs. IMHO
Oh really, Newt has zero charisma. He ain’t going nowhere. I don’t know why people feel obliged to report such trash.
There are no score keepers in political debates beyond the electorate that watches them. I didn't see a single post-debate poll that suggest Palin won that debate, let alone kicked anyone's but. Perception is reality, and the perception of the people who watched the debate, wasn't very favorable in this regard...
Isn’t it ironic that, in the past 5 days, Newt has suddenly become the flavor du jour??? Newt’s people must be working overtime.
*****************
And Romney’s are playing catch up - per usual.
From what I’m seeing, the party insiders, or at least those from the Bush Administration, seem to be showing the most interest in Mitch Daniels.
How can Obama, who is sinking like a stone in approval ratings, be a lock for two terms, unless, either, amnesty for illegal immigrants does happen and they, also, actually do turn out to vote, the November ‘12 election is really cancelled for any possible number of reasons, and/or the left successfully cheats their way to political victory?
Another 'Sarah Palin is great BUT' reply, cousin to the "I love Sarah Palin BUT" replies. Usually the sign of people who do best when on the band wagon.
Look at the bright side, even though it makes you look like a putz now, in the future when Sarah proves beyond doubt how wonderful she is, you can say, "Yeah, well, I've always said that Sarah was number one on ideology.
LLS
Well let’s see... the only real debate she has had was with biden... she literally wiped the floor with him. Perhaps you are thinking of her early interviews where she was ambushed.
LLS
People don't know him yet.
Some have already thrown him out because they heard he said something about a "truce". But the Blade will be back and my prediction is that people will like him.
Was the poll done amongst media people or voters?
The media does influence people but not enough to make
their choice win. People are not that stupid.
He can be a lock in 2012 if Palin is the GOP candidate. The left’s campaign against her has been extremely successful, and she hasn’t done herself any favors to prove her abilities are any better than Obama’s.
I don’t believe a candidate has to share everyone of my beliefs to be a good president - Newt may not have what everyone wants, but I believe he is more qualified than Palin by a long shot and could run circles around Obama in a debate or in the presidency.
ambushed smambushed. reagan wiped the floor with all their asses. Without trying.
Newt is a RINO because of his agreements to: the present “campaign finance reform” system, man made global warming, and HillaryCare health care. Newt, also, divorced one of his wives, while she was dying from cancer, and Newt has other problems with “negative personal baggage”. Newt, also, screwed up as Speaker of the House of Representatives, after so much hope was placed upon him to do a decent job, and this helped to show that Newt was lousy, whenever it comes to any executive jobs. Newt, also, has an ego that’s bigger than the entire Universe. Newt doesn’t have a prayer for any, actual political victory. He’s done.
I agree with you to an extent.
Well first, unless the economy improves in a very substantive way between now and Oct. 2012, the Easter Bunny could beat Obama (probably). But, there are some specific demographics challenges Palin needs to over come, somehow, if she wants to unseat Obama, absent some kind of additional economic meltdown.
Latinos are problematic. She polls even worse than McCain with Latinos. They hate her. Obama would move from 72% Latino support, to something approaching his black support, 95%. George Bush did almost 18 points better with Latinos than McCain did. And, they'll be an even bigger percentage of the electorate in 2012.
Young people. They hate her too. Unless the next GOP nominee can cut into the youth vote enjoyed by Obama, it makes it that much more difficult to beat him.
And women. For whatever reason, Palin under-performs with women across the general electorate. Even in this poll - polling Republicans - her percentage of support is the same amongst men & women - 17%. You would think the female candidate would do much better with Republican women, and women in general. But, she doesn't.
I think the main thing to take away from this poll is that there is no front runner - there’s only a six point spread between the candidates in this poll, excepting Ron Paul.
As you pointed out, the most striking leads are Mitt Romney’s 26% among 18-29, and Gingrich’s 27% among the over-65-ers. Neither of those numbers cracks the 30% barrier, though. It seems clear that if the field consists of these five candidates, it will be starting out as anyone’s ballgame except for Ron Paul’s.
Of course, I don’t think the field will consist of these five candidates. Besides Pawlenty, who you mentioned, I can think of at least a couple others seriously considering runs, like Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels. After all the good press he’s getting, I’d be shocked if Bobby Jindal isn’t giving the Presidency some serious consideration. Throw in other names like Thune, Santorum, Pence, and DeMint, and there’s the potential for another crowded field.
Also, I’m not at all convinced that Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich, and Paul are all running. I’m most certain Romney is running. I used to think Palin was on the fence at best, but she seems to be retooling her PAC for a run. I’m not sure about Huckabee - he certainly seems to see Palin as his biggest obstacle, so if he runs, it could get nasty between those two. I would actually be very surprised if Gingrich runs, and who the hell knows what Ron Paul is ever thinking.
Bottom line is there is no frontrunner, and I actually think the debates are going to be even more important this time than last time. Here’s hoping the candidates take some control this time and don’t let MSNBC and CNN make them look like idiots again.
I agree with you, and Newt’s personal baggage is far worse than you even state. IF Newt is leading among seniors (and I tend to call BS on this), just wait until they are reminded of how he treated his wives. He dumped wife #1 on her hospital bed as she was being treated for cancer in its terminal stage. He left her for a much younger wife #2, whom he dumped ON MOTHER’S DAY a mere 4 days after she had been diagnosed with MS. Again, left her for a newer model. If that alone doesn’t demonstrate a complete lack of character, I don’t know what does. He’s naive if he thinks his opponents won’t use this, and for this reason alone I don’t think he’ll run. Right now he’s just trying to sell books.
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