I actually liked those ads, too bad Billy died.
Posted on 07/07/2010 5:59:37 PM PDT by Pan_Yan
With just two weeks to go, it’s impossible to predict who will be in the GOP primary runoff, or whether there will be a Democratic runoff. Here are some of the issues emerging as the race heats up:
The Republicans
John Oxendine
While Oxendine has enjoyed name ID advantage during much of the campaign, he has lost some of that advantage because of what most experts believe have been comparatively poor TV ads. Unlike either Karen Handel or Nathan Deal, Oxendine has no strong, centralized geographical base.
Making it to a runoff remains largely in his hands. But as we continue to see evidence of a less-than-brisk turnout for the primary, having such a geographical base will be sorely needed, as will a robust appeal to longtime GOP voters.
With the establishment GOP dedicated to his defeat, Oxendine’s campaign simply must change its advertisings strategy. If it doesn’t, Oxendine could face the possibility of not even making a runoff.
Karen Handel
While Oxendine has been sinking a bit, Handel continues to rise. Her ascendance has come primarily in the metro Atlanta counties, closest to her base in north Fulton County. She has used sparse resources wisely, with a high-end direct mail piece that actually served to gain traction in a governor’s race, which normally doesn’t happen.
It will be interesting to see if and when Handel takes to TV, and if her presence on the airwaves would catapult her into an even stronger position, or whether it would have the apparent downbeat effect that Oxendine’s ads had.
Nathan Deal
He could be the shocker in this race. Deal has been hanging in close enough to the pack that a strong last minute TV ad blitz could present a strong and “gubernatorial” face to those interested voters that are looking for an alternative.
Eric Johnson
It takes more than a week-and-a-half to see the impact of a decent TV ad on a candidate’s fortunes. So we won’t know whether Johnson’s early media effort, combined with this latest round of sustained TV ads, will be enough to lift him into a runoff.
There is a general sense that the Johnson campaign has been too centered in areas outside of metro Atlanta. And his lack of a base of strong base makes his effort all that tougher.
Johnson would be wise to divide his ad campaign: One portion targeted to metro Atlanta – and most of his ad dollars to Atlanta TV – and a second portion with a more general message for rest of state.
Democrats
Roy Barnes continues to make use of TV commercials worthy of a big league general election campaign. His latest effort poked fun at various proposals that have drifted around the Gold Dome. It’s perhaps the best political ad of the season. For Barnes, there is only one question: Will Thurbert Baker’s strong and surprisingly sustained presence on TV appeal to enough African Americans to force Barnes into a runoff? For now, these improved Barnes ads cause one to wonder if primaries or runoffs even matter. Barnes is looking very strong – much like a governor.
I like John Oxendine very much. He has been a good, trustworthy, responsive insurance commissioner for many years. When one of my clients had a problem, we could always get a quick response.
Nathan Deal has been a first class representative from the Gainesville area. My boss is from that area and likes him - that's a good recommendation right there because he's very involved in his community.
Karen Handel has been relentless in her ads . . . we get something in the mail or on the phone almost every day. There was some scuttlebutt going about that she was weak on abortion, but she's been strenuously denying that. It may have been something from another campaign. She's a relative newcomer compared to Oxendine and Deal. I like her positions but don't know her personally as I have never dealt with her.
Eric Johnson seems to be quite conservative, but again I don't know him.
I'm open to input!!!!!
Well stated. I’m not sure either..still deciding. I hope who ever we decide can beat Barnes. Can’t believe he is running again
Oxendine.
I’ve met Karen Handel before. Very nice woman and seems hard working. She worked for Dan Quayle in the Bush I White House if I’m not mistaken.
Nice to see you again! I think last time we chatted you were scolding me for driving across flooded creeks during the big storms.
Both Oxendine and Handel give me the impression they’ve been working towards a run for Governor for years and years. I guess that’s not a crime but it looks like we have a lot of career politicians to choose from. Oxendine and Handel have been full time Georgia employees for a while now.
Is he running in Tennessee, too?
I actually liked those ads, too bad Billy died.
The few times I had to contact Handel’s office on official business, I was greatly underwhelmed. Not professional, and no follow up.
Oxendine has been primping himself for thgis run for the last 2 or 3 years. Though not the GOP’s man, I got to hand it to a top state official that can get away with shooting the hired help (true).
I am wanting to hear more from Deal and Johnson, but am leaning toward Deal.
Barnes will be tough to beat, He is the closest thing to a machine politician in this race, and the Atlanta press loves him.
I’ve been planning to vote in the democrat primary to vote against slimy Roy. You can sure tell that Bobby Kahn is running his campaign from the ads. However, I may want to be able to vote in a republican run-off and can’t do that if I vote in the dem. primary.
The business people that I have spoken with do not like Oxendine. Eric Johnson is the only republican from south of I-20; he’s from Savannah I think. Handel did a good job with the Secretary of State’s office. Deal I don’t know, but a lady I respect is a big fan.
OK, in reading my post I don’t think I’ve been any help to you at all. All I really am sure of is that I’d crawl over broken glass to vote against Barnes, no matter who his opponent is.
I think the Republicans will be much more motivated to vote in November than the Democrats. Not that we should let our guard down, but I think the turnout will favor the Republican candidate for governor unless he/she does something stupid like Chambliss did buddying up with Kennedy on immigration.
I am as undecided as you.
I am sure many in other states envy us having to sort through
who is the most conservative of these conservatives.
In the latest of the annoying political announcements on my answering machine...
Ariz. Gov. Jan Brewer says she endorses Karen Handel.
(for whatever that’s worth)
His mad push for the "Northern Arc" (outer parameter) going through land his friends had bought up from unknowing farmers and families at very low prices, sealed the deal for me. I will never vote for him.
Thanks Pan_Yan.
Apropos of nothing, why is the FR home page still sporting an “upcoming event” that took place in 2009? Just askin’.
That sonuva***** split our Cobb County precinct up because we didn't vote for him for governor (guess he figured all Cobb votes were his by Royal Prerogative) and put us in Billy McKinney's district.
We voted Billy out, but now one of his former aides is holding the seat. Naturally she doesn't return the phone calls of anybody above I-20. So I just call my state senator, Doug Stoner, who is a nice guy and very responsive. Also, Rich Golick (my former state rep) still returns my phone calls!!!!
My brother is Buckhead and has served on the Fulton County Board of Electors. In his opinion, Karen Handel never graduated from college and yells at people to appear “in charge” and has little leadership skills. She has been unable to win the Voting Rights Act ID requirement litigation even with the Bush DOJ.
Now this is my opinion, Oxendine has a girly-voice. Being the insurance commissioner is extremely susceptible to graft and he would have to be Jesus to not have been bought off and has the biggest war chest. We don’t need a governor with a high pitched voice.
Regarding Eric Johnson I am ambivalent but I like his illegal immigrant proposals.
I like Nathan Deal because my husband served along with him in the State Senate before he got elected as a congressman and liked him a lot. Approve or not, he has the big time connections after serving in D.C. and heard everything the big lobbyists had to say. He has established connections to get through to big time businessmen and DC power brokers.
We all should be devastated that Sonny did nothing to help the voucher movement and was a total dud.
I feel that Nathan is the best candidate because he is smart and has national exposure, but I also like Eric if he gets the nomination.
Oxendine didn't neglect his job, and so far as I know Handel didn't either.
And if you're going to work with state government, you need to (1) have good relationships; (2) know how the darned system works. The outside broom coming in to sweep clean sometimes makes some horrible mistakes before figuring it all out.
My dad never ran for office, but he was a regular campaign manager for quite a number of folks. He certainly knew how the system worked! but he said he had no ambition for public office. He's 85 and never held any position but the President of the Atlanta Lawyers Club and the Lawyer-Pilots Bar Association. Me, I never aspired higher than chairman of the High School Mock Trial Committee and president of the local neighborhood association.
I wouldn’t vote for Barnes if he were the only one running.. his handling of our flag sealed the deal for me. Shady back room dealing bastitch.
Thank you for the input. I have stated my misgivings about Oxendine and Handel. Thanks for giving me more information about Deal and Johnson.
I will vote for Handel. Heard her interviewed on the radio and she impressed me.
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