The Real Way to Save the Planet (AGW, Popper and falsifiability )

When I was an undergraduate the philosopher I studied most carefully was Karl Popper, especially his writings on the evaluation of evidence and criteria to distinguish a genuine scientific theory from a false one. He made two key points. First, a theory must include the falsifiability principle. It must be susceptible to empirical tests and, if it fails to meet them, be scrapped. He gave as an example of a genuine theory Einstein's General Relativity of 1915. Einstein insisted that it must survive three practical tests, and if it failed any one of them be dropped as untrue. In fact it passed triumphantly all three, beginning in 1919, and many other since.

Popper argued that prima facie evidence of a bogus theory was the practice of altering or enlarging it, by its authors, to accommodate new evidence since its original formulation. This, he argued, had happened in the case of Marxism and, still more, Freudianism. Scientific theories, he argued, must be very precise and scientific to be of any use. Marxism and Freudianism were just portmanteau notions into which virtually any kind of phenomena could be made to fit. Hence Marxism led to political and economic disaster areas like the Soviet Union, and Freudianism to a stupendous waste of time and money.

It is a pity Popper did not live to see that Global Warming fit perfectly into his model of a pseudo-theory. It is vaguely and imprecisely formulated. It fails the falsifiability test, because all new evidence is made to fit by enlarging the theory. When originally formulated in the 1980s, Global Warming produced by man-made emissions would lead, it was argued, to much higher temperatures and desiccation. There would be a huge drop in rainfall and an imperative need to build seawater desalination plants. I recall an unusually dry summer (1987) in the English Lake District, normally rainy, was triumphantly presented as "absolute proof" of the theory. This autumn, the Lake District had an unusually wet spell, culminating in floods that engulfed the delightful town of Cockermouth, where Wordsworth was born. This was pounced upon by Global Warming "experts" as "absolute proof" of their theory, and paraded as such in Copenhagen.

The fact is that the theory has now been expanded to include any unusual form of weather, anywhere. Hot summers, warm winters -- global warming. Cold weather at an unusual time of year -- global warming. Drought, storms, floods -- global warming. No snow on the ski slopes, sudden snow, out of season snow, very heavy snow -- global warming.

It is a form of pantheism and a useful emotional outlet for people who have renounced Judeo-Christianity. If someone is anti-American, left-liberal, and atheist, it is virtually certain he (or even she: women are notoriously more skeptical about it than men are) is a Global Warmer.

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ha. That would be tough.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say it is impossible. But it sure seems to me like it would be next to it. Probably take more than one lifetime to come up with a plan.

Hell, I think it would take a lifetime or more to come up with falsifiable theories about how to devise a thoroughly falsifiable test for the theory of evolution.

Popper’s test also applies to social theories, although political lies may be harder to show falsehood to those espousing the suspect theories.

One current popular social theory is that it is a social good to tolerate and even celebrate homosexuality. This is become force of US Law [albeit case law] since Lawrence v Texas, and has played out in the state by state battles over homosexual ‘marriage’, and now the proposal to allow open homosexuality in the military.

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