Posted on 11/02/2009 10:22:11 AM PST by neverdem
Doug Hoffman, the third-party upstart now backed by the Republican Party, has pulled ahead in Tuesday's special House election in upstate New York, according to two polls conducted over the weekend.
A Siena College poll conducted Nov. 1 concluded that Hoffman now leads Democrat Bill Owens 41 percent to 36 percent, after the two were essentially tied in a Siena poll released Saturday morning. That poll's margin of error is 4 percent...
--snip--
A survey by Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling pegs Hoffman's lead at 51 percent to 34 percent, with a margin of error of 2.3 percent.
The PPP poll was conducted Oct. 31 to Nov. 1, in the midst of the news of Scozzafava's withdrawal and her subsequent endorsement of Owens.
That poll found that 13 percent of those surveyed still supported Scozzafava and 3 percent were undecided. But in a release analyzing its results, PPP wrote that despite "a tumultuous polling weekend," there were "no significant differences in the numbers at any point over the course of the weekend. Hoffman led Owens by 18 points in interviews before Scozzafava's withdrawal, 19 points in between her withdrawal and the announcement of her endorsement, and by 14 points subsequent to her encouraging people to vote for Owens."
The Siena poll, conducted after Scozzafava dropped out, found that Hoffman's support among Republicans jumped from 50 percent to 63 percent since late last week, but his proportion of the independent vote dropped slightly.
Owens now has the lead among independents...
--snip--
One worrying sign for Owens as the candidates work to get their backers to the polls on Tuesday: Those who told PPP they plan to vote reported having backed Republican John McCain for president over Democrat Barack Obama by a 51-43 margin, "an indication of reduced Democratic turnout," the firm noted...
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
Check the sample size in the PPP, 1747 likely voters, with Hoffman having a majority!
Go Hoffman go! But don’t count your votes until they are cast!
When is this special election, exactly?
I think tomorrow?
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Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.
First Tuesday in November - it's the regular Election Day because the former Congressman was confirmed as Secretary in the Army just this last September, IIRC.
Anyone else polling this race besides PPP and Siena? I’d like to see a Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, or Gallup.....this race has enough national attention that you’d think it would attract surveys from the big boys.
I know, maybe Biden can tout Obama's Nobel Peace Prize.
I can't find anything but RCP. They don't have any major polls to average (you know there are slim pickings when they use Daily KOS), and all of them have Scozz in the race:
Who's paying for it? The link in comment# 1 has all the polls compiled by Real Clear Politics for NY-23. I never read that a Quinnipiac poll was any more valid than a Siena.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latestpolls/2009.html
Just heard a radio report on this on a Chicago radio station. They are calling the election “bizarre.” The implication was this right wing extremist is running ahead, after the “moderate” Repub dropped out and threw her support to the Dem. Then a clip of Plugs Biden welcoming all moderate Repubs into the big tent of the Dim Party by voting for Owens tomorrow. If you have friends or family who live in the district but not close followers of politics, I would recommend you give them a call and explain what is really going on. The lib media is in full court press mode....
dede scuzzy’s support of Owens vindicates our support of Hoffman, proving that we were right.
Thanks for the ping!
Amen. It shows that Scozzafava was never a real Republican to begin with. She is showing her true colors by backing Owens. Now I wish that she would join the Democratic Party, which is where she really belongs anyway.
Go, Hoffman, go! By the way, I live in Mississippi, so I can’t vote for him, but I hope he wins. If he does, the GOP establishment will have egg on its face, and well it should, for stabbing conservatives like Hoffman in the back.
I had a dream of a Conservative Action Network with over a million members and an annual $5 dues. $2 of that $5 dues would go to support conservative candidacies across the country by CAN members.
Plus members would be encouraged to support these candidates.
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