Hotline Daily Tracking Poll (50%-45% - no change from yesterday)

National Journal ^

[No Dems 2004]

The poll tracker shows that Obama's 5% lead of 50%-45% is unchanged from yesterday. But that's better than the leads that have been shown in some polls . . .

[No Dems 2004]

The one day sample from the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll for the past 2 days finds that Obama is ahead by just 4 points. This ain't over yet.

[MrChips]

IBD/TIPP yesterday was 2.1% !!! With 8.7% undecided!

[goldstategop]

More realistic than Gallup but I think Dem turnout is not 4+ and not 5+. The final spread will be 3+ and more likely 2+.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[NHResident]

Not sure how to post this but PBS is running a poll at:

http://www.pbs.org/now/polls/poll-435.html

Questioning if Sarah Palin is qualified to be VP. Hit the link!

[Lawdoc]

Among the other confounding variables is the fact that this was a poll taken on Sunday when the majority of our side is at church or out with the family.

Just another reason for hope.

[babydubya1981]

And don’t they severely oversample democraps?

It seems to me most polls showing Obama with more than 3 point lead, are oversampling democrats by huge margins.

Gee, who know, if you hugely oversample democrats, you get a huge Obama lead?

[goldstategop]

Does any believe Dems will have a whopping 13+ voter advantage per Gallup. Or where all those huge increases in new voters will come from?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[uncbob]

It seems to me most polls showing Obama with more than 3 point lead, are oversampling democrats by huge margins. Gee, who know, if you hugely oversample democrats, you get a huge Obama lead?

And those are the ones ANSWERING the pollers--WAPO admitted a lot AREN'T --I would think the McCain dems aren't talking while the Obamites can't wait to proclaim their loyalty

[meadsjn]

A report from one polling caller stated that 80% of the people being called refuse to participate.

McCain/Palin will win tomorrow in a blowout landslide.

[nhwingut]

I don’t think the Wright ads and the coal comments have worked their way into these polls yet.

They will be wondering come tomorrow night how they were so wrong.

[TNCMAXQ]

I don’t know if it is enough time on this final day. We can only hope. If McCain actually wins it then it will make Truman’s victory look like a blip. That is all the more reason I would give everything I own to see it happen. To see the “news” media and the intelligentsia humiliated would thrill me like nothing else.

[King of Florida]

It’s a bizarre election season indeed when the Daily Kos poll is being touted on FR. To the extent I have faith in pollsters, I put it in Rasmussen, despite some of his goofs in the primary season. The new Rasmussen just out has it 52-46 (btw, the actual Daily Kos figure also has Obama up six — it’s a three-day tracking poll, not two).

[LibLieSlayer]

Go back to early this year and look at THE SAME POLLING COMPANIES THAT ARE TELLING US obama WILL WIN THIS ELECTION AND SEE WHAT THEIR POLLING DATA WAS IN THE dim PRIMARIES... THE SAME POLLING COMPANIES IN THE SAME BATTLEGROUND STATES SHOWED THE SAME TYPE OF LEADS FOR obama AGAINST HILLARY AS THEY DO AGAINST McCAIN. Hillary won those late Battleground States and McCain will win them too!

LLS

[BCrago66]

I’m look at your link, and you might have made a mistake. I see no poll results released 11/3. Normally, new Hotline poll results are released here:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/

Or here:

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/

As of this moment, the last release was on 11/2.

[LibLieSlayer]

I predict that we will have 37-39% of dims and Republicans turning out, with many dims going Republican. I think they will be very equal in numbers voting.

LLS

[BCrago66]

OK I was wrong: 50 v. 45 is today’s number.

Here’s the entire blog post:

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/11/diageohotline_t_38.html

Obama/Biden 50%

McCain/Palin 45%

Undec 5%

— Our final tracking poll finds a whopping 27% of LV’s reporting that they’ve already voted. Among this group, Obama leads McCain 51%-46%.

— In what could be a small bright spot for congressional GOPers, the Dem lead on the generic congressional ballot question is down to 5 pts. A week ago (10/27) Dems held an 8-pt lead.

— McCain has also opened up a lead over Obama on the question of which candidate is more prepared to lead the country. A week ago (10/27), the candidates were tied at 45%. Today, McCain leads by 6 pts. (49-43%). Among indies, he is ahead 50-37%.

Today’s Diageo/Hotline tracking poll, conducted 10/31-11/2 by FD, surveyed 887 LVs and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Party ID Breakdown for the sample is 41%D, 36%R, 18%I. Look for full results in Monday’s Latest Edition.

Based on an analysis of responses to questions on candidates’ images, party ID and demographics, “Refused” responses in the head-to-head question were assigned to Obama, McCain or undec.

[goldstategop]

If its a two point spread, I think McCain will take it. But no one really knows. All we can do is hope the MSM polls are off the mark.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[rom]

Do you buy his claim that it’s Dems +7% over Republicans this yeaar? I don’t.

[Frantzie]

The coal thing really hit on Sat/Sun.

I think this polling probably also does not reflect Halloween. Halloween sucks and is a stupid wiccan, sugar industry and dentists tooth decay holiday. Repubs are not around on Halloween to answer the phone and this election no one is saying anything anyway.

The Monday polling today might be better but the public may not hear about it until they are off to go voting.

[WOSG]

“Does any believe Dems will have a whopping 13+ voter advantage per Gallup”

Either a Dem blowout of a very skewed poll.
I think the poll is wrong.