Posted on 03/16/2008 8:58:36 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
As feared, foreign bond holders have begun to exercise a collective vote of no confidence in the devaluation policies of the US government. The Federal Reserve faces a potential veto of its rescue measures.
Asian, Mid East and European investors stood aside at last week's auction of 10-year US Treasury notes. "It was a disaster," said Ray Attrill from 4castweb. "We may be close to the point where the uglier consequences of benign neglect towards the currency are revealed."
The share of foreign buyers ("indirect bidders") plummeted to 5.8pc, from an average 25pc over the last eight weeks. On the Richter Scale of unfolding dramas, this matches the death of Bear Stearns.
Rightly or wrongly, a view has taken hold that Washington is cynically debasing the coinage, hoping to export its day of reckoning through beggar-thy-neighbour policies.
It is not my view. I believe the forces of debt deflation now engulfing America - and soon half the world - are so powerful that nobody will be worrying about inflation a year hence.
Yes, the Fed caused this mess by setting the price of credit too low for too long, feeding the cancer of debt dependency. But we are in the eye of the storm now. This is not a time for priggery.
The Fed's emergency actions are imperative. Last week's collapse of confidence in the creditworthiness of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was life-threatening. These agencies underpin 60pc of the $11,000bn market for US home loans.
With the "financial accelerator" kicking into top gear - downwards - we may need everything that Ben Bernanke can offer.
"The situation is getting worse, and the risks are that it could get very bad," said Martin Feldstein, head of the National Bureau of Economic Research. "There's no doubt that this year and next year are going to be very difficult."
Even monetary policy à l'outrance may not be enough to halt the spiral. Former US Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers says the Fed's shower of liquidity cannot cure a bankruptcy crisis caused by a tidal wave of property defaults.
"It is like fighting a virus with antibiotics," he said.
We can no longer exclude a partial nationalisation of the American banking system, modelled on the Nordic rescue in the early 1990s.
But even if you think the Fed has no choice other than to take dramatic action, the critics are also right in warning that this comes at a serious cost and it may backfire.
The imminent risk is that global flight from US Treasury and agency debt drives up long-term rates, the key funding instrument for mortgages and corporations. The effect could outweigh Fed easing.
Overall credit conditions could tighten into a slump (like 1930). It's the stuff of bad dreams.
Is this the moment when America finally discovers the meaning of the Faustian pact it signed so blithely with Asian creditors?
As the Wall Street Journal wrote this weekend, the entire country is facing a "margin call". The US has come to depend on $800bn inflows of cheap foreign capital each year to cover shopping bills. They may have to pay a much stiffer rent.
As of June 2007, foreigners owned $6,007bn of long-term US debt. (Equal to 66pc of the entire US federal debt). The biggest holdings by country are, in billions: Japan (901), China (870), UK (475), Luxembourg (424), Cayman Islands (422), Belgium (369), Ireland (176), Germany (155), Switzerland (140), Bermuda (133), Netherlands (123), Korea (118), Russia (109), Taiwan (107), Canada (106), Brazil (103). Who is jumping ship?
The Chinese have quickened the pace of yuan appreciation to choke off 8.7pc inflation, slowing US bond purchases. Petrodollar funds, working through UK off-shore accounts, are clearly dumping dollars amid rumours that Gulf states - overheating wildly - are about to break their dollar pegs. But mostly likely, the twin crash in the dollar and US agency debt reflects a broad exodus by global wealth managers, afraid that America is spinning out of control. Sauve qui peut.
The bond debacle last week tallies with the crash in the dollar index to an all-time low of 71.58, down 14.6pc in a year. The greenback is nearing parity with the Swiss franc - shocking for those who remember when it was 4.375 francs in 1970. Against the euro it has hit $1.57, from $0.82 in 2000. Against the yen it has smashed through Y100. Spare a thought for Toyota. It loses $350m in revenues for every one yen move. That is an $8.75bn hit since June. Tokyo's Nikkei index is crumbling. Less understood, it is also causing a self-reinforcing spiral of credit shrinkage throughout the global system.
Japanese investors and foreign funds are having to close their yen "carry trade" positions. A chunk of the $1,400bn trade built up over six years has been viciously unwound in weeks. The harder the dollar falls, the further this must go.
It is unsettling to watch the world's reserve currency disintegrate. Commodities from gold to oil and wheat are taking on the role of safe-haven "currencies". The monetary order is becoming unhinged.
I doubt the dollar can fall much further. What is it to fall against? The spreading credit contagion will cause large parts of the globe to downgrade in hot pursuit - starting with Europe.
Few noticed last week that the Italian treasury auction was also a flop. The bids collapsed. For the first time since the launch of EMU, Italy failed to sell a full batch of state bonds.
The euro blasted higher anyway, driven by hot money flows. The funds are beguiled by Germany's "Exportwunder", for now. It cannot last. The demented level of $1.57 will not be tolerated by French, Italian and Spanish politicians. The Latin property bubbles are deflating fast.
The race to the bottom must soon begin. Half the world will be slashing rates this year to stave off credit contraction. The dollar will have a lot of company. Small comfort.
And our president did not know that gas prices were reaching $4.00 a gallon.
Well...smart, and liquid. Snapping up real estate, good deal or no, requires a bit of moolah. :-)
But at the same time, we have the dollar falling and fuel rising. So I don’t know what to make of the big picture yet.
I say not a comparable datum. McCain is a Senator, and he had no knowledge of an act he had participated in. As for the gas prices, they hit 343.9 here in Chicagoland, where they’re traditionally high, and have dipped to 339.9. Tomorrow? Who knows! But that’s just it ...
Me neither which is why I bought two Ruger LCPs last week as well as a re-supply of shotgun shells.
This recovery is perhaps made more difficult because of global factors, I don't know. I do know that it ain't over yet and it will likely get worse.
I've seen many cycles since the end of W.W.II. We all survived. Today we have for the first time trillionaire enemies, Middle East fanatics and the Chi-coms. We had enough sense not to build the Soviet economy.
GREENSPAN: FINANCIAL MESS WORST SINCE WWII...
No, we only built a soviet-style economy here. That’s the problem!
The rate was about 16% but the cost of a house that would go for $400,000 today was $70,000.
You raise a point. I had been wondering what machinations might be at work that have escaped public notice. I have to wonder if this isn't a case of someone flying too close to the sun.
ping for later read - the Fed.
Alcohol wasn’t illegal during the majority of the Great Depression. Prohibition ended on 23 March, 1933, with the signing of the Cullen-Harrison Act by President Franklin D. Roosevelt. The 18th Amendment was repealed on 5 December of that same year.
This is the first thread I've seen in 10 years that is unanimous that the economy is in real trouble.
On another note, do any Freeper financial experts have any investment suggestions in a climate like this?
Spam and rice is good. I usually add some eggs for better consistency, throw in whatever veggies you like. A rice cooker always helps too.
Perhaps a few replies on the thread dealing with real estate opportunities, bonds, interest rates, and flight to safety were missed.
yitbos
You are right about interest rates...and in the 1970’s we had THIRTY YEAR CD’s paying eighteen percent...ah, the good old days.
It’s starting to sink in that something bad is happening. So far it’s very abstract for the majority of Americans (except for the gas prices and perhaps foreclosed homes) but it will get very real soon.
Normally, it takes six to nine months for the deals to come in. Now, as far as the auto industry, new model season comes earlier each year...wait until this summer...that’s when the bargains will really be noticed.
Thats one way of looking at it..
We readied for the consequences two years ago when we set on a course to become debt free. In June we will be there.
Also, we changed our buying habbits, especially for food. We started buying in lots when food items are on sale (non-perishables). That has saved heaps of money.
No kidding. The Cayman Islands is the 5th largest holder of US debt? That’s just lovely.
Make that brown rice. White rice is dishonest and wasteful and not what you want for depression era meals. Brown rice means discipline and good health. What people will need as the shiite hits the fan
IOW you are saying Americans are owning US debt via Cayman Island accounts. Some foreigners too for sure
Yes. Buy gold & silver (Everbank offers those accounts.) Gold will stay a valid currency regardless of rise and (mostly) fall of fiat monies. Euro and other paper will not survive the crash of the dollar; the only difference will be in the exact count of sacks of bills you need to buy a loaf of bread.
But, as a disclaimer, you’d be insane to blindly follow any investment advice seen on the Internet.
Oil just hit 111.48 on NYMEX. Buy oil.
yitbos
Brown rice is good. But after “the shiite hits the fan,” there will be plenty. Well...if the work and pay for war/protection are ginned-up early enough. ;-)
Just keep my rice advice in mind for later
Same here, BJ. When coffee was on sale, for less than half price, I bought plenty. When flour, yeast, sugar, oil, and butter was on sale, I bought plenty. (Froze the butter.)
Right now, Walgreen’s has corned beef, roast beef, ham and (ugh) spam on sale for $2. Time to stock up on protein sales. (I have canned chicken and tuna crammed into the pantry.)
bump
that picture rocks.... thanks.
Thanks, BTW. I’ve enjoyed reading your comments over the years and am not really dismissive of the possible seriousness of the general situation. I try to incite a smile here and there, though.
Does anyone know if it’s a good idea to take my money out of the bank?
Doesn't matter. It's at an all time high, time to buy.
yitbos
That’s OK. With markets down and hurting America I’m serious tonight
Weren´t the brokers saying this when the Dow reached an all time high last year??
Equities are low, low. Sell
yitbos
“Gee, the rest of the world is finally catching up to US Conservatives have known for years. The US government spending spree is atrocious.”
That’s not what he’s saying. He’s saying you and me are spending too much at ChinaMart. It’s the trade imbalance of $800billion a year that’s doing the dollar in!!
Foreigner have over 6 trillion dollars - that’s the problem!
Of course the dollar getting devalued is going to be real painful for them as well, since their 6 trils are going to be worth a lot less!
Painful medicine for all.
yitbos
Interestingly, my portfolio is set to buy high, low and in between. It all averages out. In the long run, I have more shares to sell when prices are high, hold when they are not.
yitbos
Do not forget the gluttoness spending spree the Republican led congress just went thru courtesy of Tom Delay...
And where would the ChiComs rather spend those greenbacks? In Eurotopia where they can't even get .75 cents worth of stuff for a buck?
They can't give it to their employees, that would cause inflation and those billion ChiComs not in the system would want some of that "from each according to his ability."
yitbos
It sounds pretty much like if we go down, everyone else will go down the financial drain with us for one reason or the other. Then what? Longterm forecast wanted here.
The underlying value of solid U.S. companies is solid.
Long term is: remain diversified, dollar cost agerage interest and dividends, maintain asset allocation. Reallocate semi-annually.
Keep learning about investment.
yitbos
Let's hope we don't have to go that far.
Actually any further devalution of the dollar combined with reduced costs of US assets such as RE and stocks, should cause a stampede from these countries to come over and buy our cheap stuff with all the dollars they have!
I’m surprised it hasn’t already happened. The reason, probably is they still see a lot of these assets, especially RE as somewhat inflated.
Longterm forecast wanted here.
In the longterm, we’re all dead — to paraphrase Keynes.
Shorter-term, perhaps a lot of financial pain.
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