Posted on 12/21/2007 4:02:43 PM PST by blam
Astronomers Monitor Asteroid To Pass Near Mars
This artist rendering uses an arrow to show the predicted path of the asteroid on Jan. 30, 2008, and the orange swath indicates the area it is expected to pass through. Mars may or may not be in its path. (Credit: NASA/JPL)
ScienceDaily (Dec. 21, 2007) — Astronomers funded by NASA are monitoring the trajectory of an asteroid estimated to be 50 meters (164 feet) wide that is expected to cross Mars' orbital path early next year. Observations provided by the astronomers and analyzed by NASA's Near-Earth Object Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., indicate the object may pass within 30,000 miles of Mars at about 6 a.m. EST (3 a.m. PST) on Jan. 30, 2008.
"Right now asteroid 2007 WD5 is about half-way between Earth and Mars and closing the distance at a speed of about 27,900 miles per hour," said Don Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Office at JPL. "Over the next five weeks, we hope to gather more information from observatories so we can further refine the asteroid's trajectory."
NASA detects and tracks asteroids and comets passing close to Earth. The Near Earth Object Observation Program, commonly called "Spaceguard," plots the orbits of these objects to determine if any could be potentially hazardous to our planet.
Asteroid 2007 WD5 was first discovered on Nov. 20, 2007, by the NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey and put on a "watch list" because its orbit passes near Earth. Further observations from both the NASA-funded Spacewatch at Kitt Peak, Ariz., and the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico gave scientists enough data to determine that the asteroid was not a danger to Earth, but could potentially impact Mars. This makes it a member of an interesting class of small objects that are both near Earth objects and "Mars crossers."
Because of current uncertainties about the asteroid's exact orbit, there is a 1-in-75 chance of 2007 WD5 impacting Mars. If this unlikely event were to occur, it would be somewhere within a broad swath across the planet north of where the Opportunity rover is located.
"We estimate such impacts occur on Mars every thousand years or so," said Steve Chesley, a scientist at JPL. "If 2007 WD5 were to thump Mars on Jan. 30, we calculate it would hit at about 30,000 miles per hour and might create a crater more than half-a-mile wide." The Mars Rover Opportunity is exploring a crater approximately this size right now.
Such a collision could release about three megatons of energy. Scientists believe an event of comparable magnitude occurred here on Earth in 1908 in Tunguska, Siberia, but no crater was created. The object was disintegrated by Earth's thicker atmosphere before it hit the ground, although the air blast devastated a large area of unpopulated forest.
NASA and its partners will continue to track asteroid 2007 WD5 and will provide an update in January when further information is available. For more information on the Near Earth Object program, visit: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/.
Adapted from materials provided by NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
I read an article earlier today that put the odds at 1 in 30 of a hit.
Keeping my fingers crossed for an impact just because it would be cool as hell.
Reminds me of the book “Lucifers Hammer”
Scientist had said 1 in 1000, then 1 in 600, then 1 in 50, and then it hit.
I didn't see this covered on the other thread. Mars atmosphere is much deeper than earth's although the surface pressure is lower by far. The asteroid might or might not make it through depending on its structure. If it is a loose clot of dust it won't. If it is solid nickel steel it will.
Well, an impact should take care of that Martian global warming.
Scientist had said 1 in 1000, then 1 in 600, then 1 in 50, and then it hit
One of my alltime favorite Sci-Fi books.
bkmark
If you have not read it already, check out “Earth Abides” by Stewart. Great read.
It would melt permafrost. That would be most convenient for a future settlement: to have a lake a mile across and a mile deep.
As we know from the earth’s history, an asteroid impact will kill off any Martian dinosaurs.
Followed closely by Footfall
I would like to see a direct hit. That would be interesting.
So.....if this rock misses Mars, where is it off to next?
Yes, that is a related thread, but this explanation and the writeup itself are much more clear in this one.
A good reason for sometimes repeating a subject - with a different source article.
I hope it slams into it and huge chunks come raining down on the earth, oh wait, no that’s bad, never mind ...
I agree, that would be kick-butt!
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