New Hampshire Senate: Shaheen (D) 48% Sununu 43%

Rasmussen Reports ^ | Tuesday, September 18, 2007

[MassachusettsGOP]

New Hampshire Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 16, 2007

Election 2008: New Hampshire Senate
John Sununu (R): 43%
Jeanne Shaheen (D): 48%

Shaheen leads by fifteen points among women while Sununu has a four point edge among men. The former Governor has an eight-point lead among New Hampshire’s unaffiliated voters.

While New Hampshire is typically the focus on Presidential campaigns at this time of year, the state is one of several where Democrats hope to pick up Senate seats in 2008. Sununu won his current job by defeating Shaheen in 2002, but the political environment has changed significantly since that time. Recent polls also show Republican Senate seats at risk in Virginia and Minnesota.

Shaheen is viewed favorably by 51% of New Hampshire voters and unfavorably by 44%.

Sununu’s numbers are almost identical—50% favorable and 43% unfavorable.

Any incumbent who polls below 50% early in the campaign cycle is considered potentially vulnerable. An incumbent who trails the challenger at this point in the process is especially so.

[trisham]

I saw part of an interview of Shaheen of NECN yesterday. I can’t imagine why anyone would vote for her. She’s in way over her head.

[DallasJ7]

Wow, I haven’t really been here much for the past 10 months, but I come to find that even LS, the eternal optimist, is pessimistic. Right now, I’d say we pick up Lousiana, and lose Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and lose either 1 or 2 out of Minnesota, Oregon, and Maine.

So that’s an overall Dem pickup of 3 or 4 seats, which isn’t too awful given how badly the deck is stacked against us. Of course a lot can change in 14 months. Let’s just pray that Kerrey stays away from the Nebraska race. And that Rounds gets in the SD race, putting that seat in play.

[Kuksool]

Survey USA’s NH polls last week reveal the following matchups

Hillary 51 Fred 41

Hillary 47 Rudy 47

Mitt 45 Hillary 44

So, yes Mitt and Rudy would be the best candidates for Sununu. With the Congressional races having stormy forecasts, I may base my Presidential primary vote on the candidate who can help out in ME, MN, OR, CO, Va, and NH. I care more about Congress than the Presidential candidates.

[BlackElk]

Ummmm, paleobirdbrains????

[Aglooka]

I’m surprised. These numbers are better than I thought they would be. Plus Shaheen has been out of NH for the last 5 years.

Isn’t “Shaheen” an Urdu name? Indeed Pakistan fields a missile named "Shaheen" (see the link). http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/pakistan/missile/hatf-3_1.jpg

[raccoonradio]

Jeanne, Jeanne the taxing machine

Who knew? Sununu...

[Alter Kaker]

. Likely we’ll keep Hagel’s seat, but even that won’t be easy.

Not if they nominate Bob Kerrey we won't. At least not easily. He's the most popular politician in Nebraska, even when he's in New York.

I'm actually more optimistic than you about Norm Coleman (although Minnesota in a Presidential year is going to be tough). But in Colorado we're going to need a miracle to elect Bob Schaeffer and hold that seat.

[Rb ver. 2.0]

“Its Not Over...”

Pretty astute observation 14 months out from the election.

[rhombus]

Ummmm, paleobirdbrains????

Yeah, they'll never bring back NH of the 50s and they don't offer much these days except the usual "Massholes" grumbling.

[LibLieSlayer]

This is FR... you need to lose that loser attitude... when facing bad odds... fight harder.

LLS

[roses of sharon]

Franken in the Senate would finally prove the idiocy of majority of citizens, (call them Americans no more).

It could finally spur we in the minority to actually DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE MONOPOLY THE LEFT HAS ON ACADEMIA, HOLLYWOOD AND THE MEDIA.

[goldstategop]

New Hampshire like Vermont, is being steadily assimilated by the libs.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[rhombus]

Franken in the Senate would finally prove the idiocy of majority of citizens, (call them Americans no more).

It could finally spur we in the minority to actually DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE MONOPOLY THE LEFT HAS ON ACADEMIA, HOLLYWOOD AND THE MEDIA.

Sorry I don't share your optimism. At this point the minority would rather continue to be the minority and polish their principles. Meanwhile the majority just laughs off a guy like Franken while generally agreeing with him.

[Norman Bates]

No, it’s not over yet. These numbers aren’t very good but they are somewhat better than a previous Sununu-Shaheen poll. Given the almost identical favorables I think this may hinge on if a very serious turnaround is perceived to have taken place in Iraq by this time next year.

[DesScorp]

That’s within the margin of error, and Sunnunu is being hurt by the general anti-Bush feeling right now, which will pass as we get closer to election time. He can win this seat.

[LS]

That’s the point Neo: he’s not trailing yet-—but he’s only up by 2-3 in the most recent poll I’ve seen. For an incumbent, a year out, that’s outrageous. Based on what I’ve seen, and how republicans fade, Franken will win this.

[LS]

Yes, I do think we'll pick up LA, the only pickup. But you're wrong on MN. Coleman snuck in on the ridiculous excess of the Wellfarestone memorial. He's only a couple ahead of that buck-toothed moron Franken now. He's toast.

We don't have that replacement for Craig yet---he's still there.

I figure, right now, the Dems come really close to 60.

[Alas Babylon!]

Sadly, all of the New England states are very much a lost cause. I don’t see how it can be turned around.

[LS]

You're right on Kerrey. So that's another loss.

Folks, you are forgetting that there are Socialist Parties and Green Parties in MN who always siphon votes from the Dem---but if it's that buck-toothed moron, they will unite behind him. I think MN is a lost cause, for a long, long time.

[LS]

It's not a loser attitude for a squirrel to stack away some acorns for a hard winter.

A hard winter is coming.