Posted on 11/07/2006 4:29:51 PM PST by LS
All right, folks. Guess I have to do it again around here and hand out the chill pills.
1) It is absolutely clear to me that we have won this. We will keep the Senate, and I'm 90% sure we keep the House. We'll probably gain a seat, maybe two in the Senate.
2) I know this from the turnout numbers, just as I did in 2004. The fact is, forget Indies. They don't vote in high numbers. It's all about the two parties, and who gets out their base.
We have done that today beyond my wildest expectations. The info we have from the Hotline on turnout is overwhelming, and in virtually every key state, we have exceeded Dem turnout by 2, 3, 4, or 6%.
As I predicted, we are seeing a Dem UNDERVOTE. They are underperforming, esp. in key states such as OH. However, they are underperforming far worse than even I dreamed. We are looking at 20% in Cuyahoga County! Brown and Strickland couldn't get elected dog catcher with that level of support.
SO HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT: THE MEDIA IDIOTS HAVE THEIR TEMPLATES. THEY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO COME AROUND. IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT, BECAUSE THEY WON'T BELIEVE THEIR EYES.
They may even "call" a few House races, maybe a Senate race, based on some ridiculously low "exit poll" and have to recant later. Be patient. The turnout numbers suggest we absolutely cannot lose.
Is Northup performing adequately, trailing at this stage? Will absentees play a role? On another thread I thought I read you saying she won't lose.
People are going nuts about what the talking heads are saying, but ...
They're just filling dead air, waiting for the results like the rest of us.
I'm hoping we pick up two more house seats here in the great state of Georgia!
Pro Dem media bias plus the desire to keep the show suspenseful for advertisers makes TV news viewing very unpleasant for me tonight. I don't think I have the nerve at my age to watch it.
Then on the other hand, if it turns out to be a good night, Chrissie and Olbermann might be worth watching.
CNN has a tendency to lie. Let me rephrase that, CNN has a compulsion to lie.
Email from my sister in Cuyahoga County:
"I just knew it! Breaking news - the Dems are filing a lawsuit to keep CERTAIN polling places open past 7:30."
But, if they need to file a lawsuit to keep polls open to get more people to vote, they must REALLY be undervoting!
You are correct, my FRiend....
I hope so.
Your credibility for the n ext 2 or 3 days rides on this analysis. ;-)
Not you again.
Governors, son, Governors. We can win this big in the House/Senate and lose it all in two years if enough Dem governers can tilt the scales in favor of their party's candidate. Bush isn't running, and the most likely candidates are former governors or senators.
This one's about governors. Watch Meghan Kendall's coverage on FOX if you have any doubts.
Don't I know it. I went to Kroger for a big box of crow, just in case :)
You use numbers... I use gut feeling. We both arrive at the same conclusion.
please explain Ann Northrup (R KY) now behind by a decent margin? It was a bellweather indicator no?
Keep the faith!
They don't call it the DinoMedia for nothing.
What's wrong? I posted actual poll results, not idle speculation, from KY-03. . .
Blackwell hasn't lost anything. I told you, don't go by calls, especially early ones.
I printed a copy of John Fund's hour to hour guide from opinion journal at http://opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110009204
Will that be useful to me?
I believe, LS.
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