Posted on 11/07/2006 4:29:51 PM PST by LS
All right, folks. Guess I have to do it again around here and hand out the chill pills.
1) It is absolutely clear to me that we have won this. We will keep the Senate, and I'm 90% sure we keep the House. We'll probably gain a seat, maybe two in the Senate.
2) I know this from the turnout numbers, just as I did in 2004. The fact is, forget Indies. They don't vote in high numbers. It's all about the two parties, and who gets out their base.
We have done that today beyond my wildest expectations. The info we have from the Hotline on turnout is overwhelming, and in virtually every key state, we have exceeded Dem turnout by 2, 3, 4, or 6%.
As I predicted, we are seeing a Dem UNDERVOTE. They are underperforming, esp. in key states such as OH. However, they are underperforming far worse than even I dreamed. We are looking at 20% in Cuyahoga County! Brown and Strickland couldn't get elected dog catcher with that level of support.
SO HERE IS WHAT TO EXPECT: THE MEDIA IDIOTS HAVE THEIR TEMPLATES. THEY WILL BE VERY SLOW TO COME AROUND. IT WILL BE A LONG NIGHT, BECAUSE THEY WON'T BELIEVE THEIR EYES.
They may even "call" a few House races, maybe a Senate race, based on some ridiculously low "exit poll" and have to recant later. Be patient. The turnout numbers suggest we absolutely cannot lose.
Again: Just wait, Einstein.
No, I've concluded from the beginning that we're going to hold the House and the Senate because your base is more energized for this election and we will turn out in greater numbers than expected. Most of the races will be closer than usual and if Santorum wins it will be in a squeaker by about 0.2% of the vote. But I believe we will hold both the House & Senate. The Diebold company better add security to all their locations tomorrow--there may be barbarians at their gates tomorrow morning...lol.
Latest Virgina info (from the State's website):
J H Webb Jr Democratic 392,854 49.39%
G F Allen Republican 392,816 49.39%
[35.28% of precincts reporting.]
I wish we had a reliable map showing the big picture
as it unfolds.
Turnout numbers posted from RNC to Hotline. I've put them up several places.
Professor LS has an excellent record in these matters. Yours?
Shut up and start your own thread instead of posting such interesting comments as "?" on this one.
You're as stalwart as a French politician. LS might be wrong but you are an ankle biter.
Hmmm...you may want to find out who is backing and financing Election Projection, there, chief. ;O)
Results for Broward County Florida Senators Race 1.5 hours after polls closedUNITED STATES SENATOR90 of 776 Precincts Completely Reporting
Vote type summary
Precinct detail map
Percent Votes
Katherine Harris (REP)
25.82% 34,733
Bill Nelson (DEM)
72.60% 97,671
Floyd Ray Frazier (NPA)
0.29% 394
Belinda Noah (NPA)
0.49% 664
Brian Moore (NPA)
0.37% 497
Roy Tanner (NPA)
0.33% 438
Write-In
0.10% 132
134,529
Yep....
You wouldn't happen to be Karl Rove? ;-)
Hang in their dude...we're going to hold both House and Senate. I have a strong intuitive feeling about this and when that happens I'm right about 90% of the time. I make no guarantees, but it looks to me like we'll still control congress tomorrow.
OK Costello.
Tosca just met Mario in Act I. In know I shouldn't be using an electronic device here (Metropolitan Opera), but I know you can't live without the news. This isn't going to turn out well. They'll all wind up dead.
We, on the other hand, will do just fine.
Let's hope you're right. I want my horse Rick "The Coming Storm" Santorum to win.
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