Thanks for posting, GGG. I've heard about the predictions and the purported 94% accuracy rate but never seen the list before. I appreciate it.
It looks like this 94% accuracy claim was exaggerated. This doesn't mean that Golitzen did not have significant validity, but this particular statement does not seem to hold up under scrutiny.
BTW, he also predicted the rise of Gorbi...
July 4, 1984: ‘At this time, the Soviet Strategists may replace the old leader, Konstantin Chernenko, who is actually only a figurehead, with a younger Soviet leader who was chosen some time ago as his successor, namely Comrade Gorbachev. One of his major tasks will be to implement the so-called liberalization. The strategists may also replace the old ‘hardliner’ Andrei Gromyko with a younger ‘soft-liner’…The new Soviet leadership may introduce economic reforms and striking political initiatives in order to project a clear message that the changes in the Soviet leadership and in Soviet policy require changes in US leadership, in US military policy and in the US budget. Inasmuch as both conservatives and liberals are confused by strategic disinformation about Soviet strategic intentions, it is possible that these manoeuvres, assisted by Soviet agents of influence, will be successful.’
Indeed, I'd say Golitsyn pretty much nailed it!
Taken from Golitsyn's second book, Perestroika Deception:
August 1985: ‘There are no valid grounds for favourable illusions or for the euphoria in the West over the Gorbachev appointment and the coming ‘liberalisation’. In fact, these developments may present a major challenge and serious test for the United States’ leadership and for the West. The liberalization will not be spontaneous nor will it be genuine. It will be a calculated liberalization patterned along the lines of the Czechoslovak ‘democratisation’ which was rehearsed in 1968. It will be initiated from above and will be guided and controlled by the KGB and the Party apparatus. The ‘liberalisation’ will include the following elements:
(a) Economic reforms to decentralize the Soviet economy and to introduce profit incentives on the lines of those in Hungary and China. Since Gorbachev is a Soviet agricultural expert, one can expect a reorganization of the kolkhozy or collective farms into sovkhozy or state farms. In fact, Lavrentiy Beria was already planning the liquidation of the kolkhozy in 1953.
(b) Religious relaxation along the lines of Iosif Stalin’s relaxation during the Second World War. The recent sensational Soviet invitation to the Reverend Billy Graham to preach in Soviet churches indicates that the Soviet strategists have already introduced this element and have not waited for the formal installation of Gorbachev as Party leader.
(c) Permission for a group of Jewish émigrés to leave the USSR.
(d) Relaxation of travel restrictions to allow Soviet citizens to make visits abroad. This will be done to impress the West with the Soviet government’s compliance with the Helsinki agreements.
(e) Some relaxation for Soviet intellectuals and cultural defectors. Soviet writers and producers will be permitted to write books and produce plays on controversial subjects. Cultural defectors, musicians and dancers will be allowed to perform in the USSR and to travel abroad, thus getting the best of both worlds. One can expect that amnesty will be declared for the so-called dissidents.
(f) Some reduction in the military budget and the transfer of some military funds to improve the state economy’.
‘If presented and advertised by the innocent and uninitiated media as major radical change in the Communist system, the “liberalization” will allow the Communist leaders immediately to regain the political initiative and to revive the political and diplomatic détente which was so disastrous for the West and so beneficial to the Communists in the past. The charismatic personality of Gorbachev may play an important role in the over-reaction of the Western media’.
‘The Soviet “liberalization” is a major part of the strategy of the whole Communist Bloc, and particularly of Poland and East Germany, against the West. The main objective is to launch a political offensive against the United States and NATO and to develop a military détente in Europe by changing the political and military situation. This strategy is designed to accomplish the following:
(a) To bring about a “German Confederation” of East and West Germany and withdrawal from both the Warsaw Pact and NATO.
(b) To break up NATO and force a United States withdrawal from Europe’.
‘One can expect that, in order to accomplish their objectives, a similar “liberalisation” will be introduced in Poland and East Germany.
‘Presented and advertised as a new reality in Europe, the Soviet, Polish and East German “liberalization” will have a stunning and mesmerizing effect on both West Europeans and Americans. The resulting confusion will be exploited by the Soviet, Polish and East German leaders through their activist diplomacy especially towards West Germany. Czechoslovak, Hungarian and Romanian leaders may actively contribute to this strategy…’
‘The “liberalization” in the USSR, Poland and East Germany may set off a chain reaction in the West and inflict irreparable damage particularly on the NATO countries and the US military posture unless its true nature and role in Communist strategy are realized.’
‘The “liberalization” and its strategic manipulations, combined with overt and covert Communist operations, will also present problems for the leadership of the West. It will be aimed at confusing the Western leaders, splitting the West European allies from the United States and then splitting the people from their elected leaders. The leaders who are taken in by the “liberalization” can be expected to make erroneous and costly decisions, albeit unwittingly, in the interests of the Communists’.
In my own opinion, Golitsyn has a 70% accuracy rate. That is far better than a weather forcast.