Posted on 06/07/2006 9:43:17 AM PDT by Jean S
The shape of the 2008 presidential sweepstakes is gradually becoming clearer through the fog of war. There is a surprising and artful symmetry in how each party’s contest is shaping up.
Both parties have clear front-runners — Hillary Clinton and John McCain — around whom the race will be formed. In each party there is a looming presence whose entry into the race could change it completely. And there is an assortment of ideologically more extreme contenders who are trying to break through and challenge the front-runner.
In the Republican primaries, McCain runs far ahead of all other contenders. But the specter of Rudy Giuliani hangs over the nominating process. If Rudy runs, his challenge will most directly affect McCain, who then would have to battle for the moderate side of the party. But if Rudy stays out, the contest will polarize around the Arizona senator.
But since McCain is on the left of the GOP — despite his efforts to court the right — he will inevitably face a runoff in the primaries against the great right hope, a title for which Virginia Sen. George Allen, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist are competing. Gov. George Pataki of New York and Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska are considering runs for the nomination, but both would have to battle McCain for the center-left and neither will be able to get much traction in the face of McCain’s appeal.
The problem is that McCain probably can’t win the Republican nomination. He is too independent, original, creative and populist for his party. A party that prides itself on regularity and corporate grayness won’t take a chance on a maverick who led the fight for tough corporate governance, against big tobacco, for campaign-finance reform, against CIA torture and for tough environmental regulation. So the challenger who emerges from the right-wing miniprimary will probably be the nominee.
Interestingly, there is no tall mountain to climb for a challenger in the right-wing alternative-to-McCain derby. Allen is running a narrow first, with Romney slightly behind him. Frist will probably die early from diseases he caught running the Senate. Huckabee, a tremendous speaker with a clerical past and a galvanizing presence, could be a formidable late starter. But none of these candidates is getting many votes, and a good showing by anyone in a debate or a straw poll could begin a miniature landslide. My own bet is that Huckabee is the strongest of the field because of his platform skills. (Disclosure: he’s a former client of mine.)
On the Democratic side, Hillary is under increasing fire for her failure to move to the left on the Iraq war. In a massive miscalculation, she aimed at winning the general election by backing the war before she got the nomination, which will be decided by anti-war Democratic primary voters. Her error opens the door for Al Gore, the figure who is the equivalent of Giuliani’s looming presence over the Republican primary.
If Gore runs, it will be a dogfight to the end between these two veterans of the Clinton administration. Gore, a virgin on the war and the certified owner of the climate-energy-gas price issue, would give Hillary a very tough contest.
If Gore runs, there is no room for anybody else. If Gore doesn’t go for it, Sen. John Kerry and former Sen. John Edwards will assert their claims, but I think they will be easily pushed aside by Hillary. Both backed the war and are seen as losers in the wake of 2004’s disaster.
But that does not mean Hillary will have a cakewalk even if Gore stays out. Voters are antsy about nominating Hillary, worried that she is a polarizing figure who can’t win. That could open the way for a crop of new Democratic contenders like former Gov. Mark Warner of Virginia or Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.
But my bet is that if Gore doesn’t run, Hillary wins the nomination.
As to the election, whoever wins the Democratic nomination in 2008 will get elected president unless:
(A) Either McCain, Giuliani or — my old favorite — Condoleezza Rice gets the GOP nomination, or
(B) McCain runs as an independent, a race he could win, thereby reshaping American politics forever.
Morris, a former political adviser to Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.) and President Bill Clinton, is the author of Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race.
I don't see Insane McCain getting the nomination. My guess is he is dead in the water after SC again. I can't guess regrading Rudy because I have absolutely no idea what his for or against. I don't think either Hillary or Gore stand a chance winning so it doesn't really matter which one gets the nominiation.
He seems to be willfully ignoring Newt in this.
If we run either McCain, or Giuliani, I will probably decide that I no longer fit the definition of Republican.
I haven't gone away, but the party sure has.
Where'd the toe-sucker get this gem?
Expect MeCain to pout and get mad at Republican Conservatives and pulls a "Ross Perot" in an effort to get to the White House that in his mind he deserves and should have been his already.
If Morris is correct, it will validate my personal assumption that 75% of the people you meet on the street are morons.
Morris has a crystal ball made of granite.
"As to the election, whoever wins the Democratic nomination in 2008 will get elected president unless:
(A) Either McCain, Giuliani or — my old favorite — Condoleezza Rice gets the GOP nomination, or
(B) McCain runs as an independent, a race he could win, thereby reshaping American politics forever."
McCain is early dead meat, Giulani won't survive either. Rice just won't run I believe. I think it is Allen for sure (don't know enough about Huckabee).
Allen has a nice family, a clean normal image, strong on immigration and ok on abortion. I think he rolls over the freak Hillary who deserves the apellation Hildebeast.
If we run either McCain, or Giuliani, I will probably decide that I no longer fit the definition of Republican.
I haven't gone away, but the party sure has.
my sentiments exactly.....
I will vote for whoever the Republican nominee is. After throwing away my vote in '92 on Perot and contributing to the win of the Clintons who seem to never go away and we may never recover from all they did to us either...Why make the same mistake again? We do NOT want a Democrat in the White House any time soon, whether another Clinton (God forbid, Please!!) or any of the others likely to be nominated for '08. They will put in the most liberal judges and justices of all time and destroy our militay, what's left of our educational system, our morale and economy etc and sell-out completely to the U.N. and terrorists....again.
Ditto.
Hillary might be the only person on the face of the earth who could cause me to vote for either of those liberal RINOs.
Or maybe not. How shall we take our agony, quick and severe, or slow and painful?
Well DUH! Kerry hasn't stopped the 2004 campaign yet. Hey, Senator... how's it going representing the people of Massachusetts? Oh, you're in California this week? How nice for your constituants.
Or vote for a gun control candiate.
That means I will not, now, or ever, be voting Rudy, Romney or McCain or their like.
I have to agree with you. I will have to grit my teeth and bear it if it's McCain or Guliani, but I will never throw away my vote like I did on Perot in '92 again.
McCain, Hillary, Gore, and Guiliani have no prayer. Morris needs to stick with toe-sucking.
Neither the Republicans or the Democrats can afford to nominate these media darlings. Look for fresh faces from both political parties.
Just Little Dick Morris talking to hear himself talk again. He knows juan mckennedy will NOT get the nomination and neither will Rudy who?.
algore won't be the rat in the race but none of that matters. George Allen will be the next president.
"Frist will probably die early from diseases he caught running the Senate."
LOL THat's a good one. His killing disease will be amnesty for illegals.
As for McCain for president, NO WAY!
More fantasizing from the toe sucker...
I'm onboard with an Allen campaign. McCain is a media tease, and Rudy is a cypher. While I like Rudy, I don't know what he believes. I think McCain is Insane.
Gingrich has some great vision but I don't think he is quite there. There is a darkhorse in this race who is flying below the radar. Who is it?
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