Posted on 04/17/2005 10:10:33 AM PDT by Nachum
The Palestinian terror onslaught offensive is expected to resume in September, prompting the IDF's re-capture of cities in Judea and Samaria in the fall, and a re-entry to Gaza by early next year.
The IDF has given the code-name "Rainy Day" to the period following the disengagement/expulsion, which is scheduled to begin July 20 and end sometime in August. This name was chosen "not only because of the autumn winds soon to blow," writes military correspondent Haggai Huberman in HaTzofeh, "but also because of the military scenario foreseen by the army. "The army is calling it a 'security escalation' - in other words, a renewal of war with the Palestinians."
The violence is expected to reach such levels, Huberman writes, that "the IDF will be forced to re-take the cities of Judea and Samaria" that were recently given over to the security control of the Palestinian Authority. Jericho and Tul Karem were recently given over, but the handover of Kalkilye to the PA has been held up because the PA refuses to collect the weapons of wanted terrorists.
"The mind-boggling thing," Huberman continues, "is that the State of Israel is advancing, knowingly and with its eyes open, towards this death trap. The Yom Kippur War of October 1973 was a surprise, but the war of October 2005 is totally known in advance. Senior IDF officers say it in closed sessions in the clearest manner possible to everyone, including the media. The Prime Minister and the Defense Minister, pushing with all their might for the uprooting [of the Jews in Gaza and northern Shomron], also know it. This scenario is shown on slides that the senior officers show the diplomatic echelons, the government, the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, and all others who have to know."
Haaretz defense affairs expert Amir Oren agrees. "In and around the IDF," Oren writes today, "the assessments are mixed as to how well the security forces will overcome the [Jewish] opponents of the evacuation... But there is no disagreement about what can be expected after the summer: The prediction is that by next January to March, after Palestinian terror has increased and become more sophisticated, the IDF will return to Gaza - this time without the police."
HaTzofeh's Huberman adds that even if a diplomatic agreement appears to be in the making, terrorism will still be renewed - but on a "more moderate" level. "These, then, are the two only post-expulsion possibilities the IDF is preparing for," he writes: "If there is an agreement, there will be terrorism, and if there is no agreement, there will be an escalation, i.e., war."
Arms-smuggling from Egypt into Gaza, and from there to Judea and Samaria, or along the Egypt-Negev-Judea route, continues to increase. Standardized powerful dynamite, which has not been seen in Judea and Samaria since Operation Defensive Shield almost three years ago, is among the materials the terrorists are trying to smuggle in. IDF officials consider this the main threat against Israel today, as it will mean roadside bombs along major highways in the Israeli heartland.
In the 15 weeks of the year 2005 , the army reports that 1,000 rifles have been smuggled from Sinai into Gaza and the Negev. Dozens of RPG mortar launchers, 150 pistols and tens of thousands of bullets have found their way into Israel since the beginning of the year. Some 600 rifles were smuggled in over the past month alone. It is suspected as well that five anti-aircraft shoulder missiles were smuggled in via one of the tunnels into Gaza.
The problem could be fixed tomorrow. If you want to find blame today, you have to look to Sharon
I don't know what's happened to him of late. I'm really scared of what is to become if Israel. I really liked Netanyahu and if Sharon fails I wonder which party will take over.
I wonder that too.
Not only the Arab countries, but the left in Israel too. The problem with this line of thinking is that the left has been trying to relieve themselves of all the territory taken in the '67 war since that time. It has been a relentless, non-stop political attack.
There is no satisfying the hunger of the left, or the neighboring Arab countries, or the EU or the pacifists in the US state dept., IMHO. That is why all of this is foolish and futile. The status quo is bad, but this is worse.
I couldn't tell from the article, but is this predicted as the most likely outcome or is it one of many for which the IDF has developed contingency plans for?
Of course. The whole point of the Gaza pullout was to clear the battlefield so that the IDF could clean house on the strip.
Have you lost your sense of humor, entirely?
THAT'S sad.
BS.
If the IDF wanted to "clean house on the strip" , it would have done that eons ago.
I think they want to do something a bit more comprehensive, which they can't when the Jewish communities there serve as hostages.
That's just fine with me.
I think Israel should take
westward to Paris,
and south to Cape Town.
That would give them breathing room
and calm the region.
The Jewish residents never served as hostages.
They were dwelling on their own land, bought prior 1948, from which they were expelled by Egypt, when Egypt controlled the strip.
Check it out.
I know the history and I know that they are there legitimately. But they are extremely hard to defend and their presence limits what the IDF can do, because it is easy for the half-million Arabs to attack the few tens of thousands of Jews there.
Master of the Obvious.
It reminds me this story:
After months of negotiation with the authorities, a Talmudist from
Odessa was finally granted permission to visit Moscow. He boarded the train and found an empty seat. At the next stop, a young man got on and sat next to him. The scholar looked at the young man and he thought:
This fellow doesn't look like a peasant, so if he is no peasant he
probably comes from this district. If he comes from this district,
then he must be Jewish because this is, after all, a Jewish district.
But on the other hand, since he is a Jew, where could he be going? I'm the only Jew in our district who has permission to travel to Moscow. Ahh, wait! Just outside Moscow there is a little village
called Samvet, and Jews don't need special permission to go to Samvet.
But why would he travel to Samvet? He is surely going to visit one of the Jewish families there. But how many Jewish families are there in Samvet? Aha, only two - the Bernsteins and the Steinbergs. But since the Bernsteins are a terrible family, such a nice young fellow like him, he must be visiting the Steinbergs.
But why is he going to the Steinbergs in Samvet? The Steinbergs have only daughters, two of them, so maybe he's their son-in-law. But if he is, then which daughter did he marry? They say that Sarah Steinberg married a nice lawyer from Budapest, and Esther married a businessman from Zhitomer, so it must be Sarah's husband. Which means that his name is Alexander Cohen, if I'm not mistaken.
But if he came from Budapest, with all the anti-Semitism they have
there, he must have changed his name. What's the Hungarian equivalent of Cohen?
It is Kovacs. But since they allowed him to change his
name, he must have special status to change it. What could it be?
Must be a doctorate from the University. Nothing less would do.
At this point, the hochem turns to the young man and says, "Excuse me. Do you mind if I open the window, Dr. Kovacs?"
"Not at all," answered the startled co-passenger. "But how is it that you know my name?"
"Ahhh," replied the Talmudist, "It was obvious."
The Isrealis are damned if they do and they are damned if they don´t.
I believe you are right, only I believe it is to stave off criticism from Europe. "See we tried it your way, but it didn´t work."
I do not think Isreal could do anything that would make the Arabs happy.
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