Posted on 02/27/2005 1:05:07 PM PST by quidnunc
Austin Bay goads me into losing my blogospheric virginity. It was over in minutes, but the audience made me nervous.
-snip-
8. Well, since you asked, Austin…First, it’s true that the Central and Eastern European nations are markedly more America-friendly than the western ones. However, their long-term prognosis is not significantly different: they face the same deathbed demographics — right now, the only European country breeding at replacement rate is Muslim Albania.
Declining population isn’t necessarily a problem — my own New Hampshire town, for example, survived a 130-year population decline from 1820 to 1950, caused by the opening up of the west, the collapse of the sheep industry and the big mill towns down south. But New Hampshire’s entire social structure wasn’t founded on a welfarist model dependent on continuous population growth to sustain state benefits. For the states of Eastern Europe, one of the consequences of joining the EU, adopting the Euro and ratifying the European Constitution is that they’re also assuming collective responsibility for the cost of the unsustainable welfare burdens of Greece, France, etc.
There are two ways you could deal with this — either reform of the welfare states or massive immigration higher than America at its pre-World War One immigration peak. No European politicians have the courage to address the former (openly), so they’ve signed on to the latter (silently). In the end, the idea of using the Third World as your surrogate mother isn’t a long-term solution either: in 2020, a skilled educated Indian, Chilean, Chinaman, Singaporean will be able to write his own emigration ticket anywhere on the planet. Is it likely he’ll want to choose a part of the world where the basic tax rate will be 60%?
That means Europe will be almost wholly dependent on the Muslim world for immigration — and one of the features of super-tolerant anything-goes post-Christian Europe is that it radicalises hitherto moderate Muslims. Look at the number of Islamist terrorists who are creatures of the Euro-Canadian welfare systems — Richard Reid the shoe bomber, Zac Moussaoui, Ahmed Ressam, even Mohammed Atta’s political character was formed in large part by his time in Germany. A senior Dutch cabinet minister told me in 2003 that what really scared him was that young Dutch Muslims were more Islamist and less assimilated than the grandparents who’d arrived in the early Seventies.
There are two likely longterm outcomes of all this:
a) Europe will simply become Muslim, as is already happening in secondary Scandinavian and Benelux cities;
b) New opportunist political movements will take advantage of the situation and of the silence of the centre-left EU political establishment, as is already happening in France, Belgium, Holland, Austria, Germany, Denmark. Europeans will see their declining economic fortunes, increasing crime, unaffordable welfare systems, etc, within the context of their demographic transformation, and some will react in the traditional European way — ie, violence, massive destabilisation, etc. Will this work in the long run? I doubt it. Like the “Take Back Vermont” campaign of five years ago, once you’re talking about taking it back you’ve already lost it.
There may be smart politicians in individual nations — Slovakia, Lithuania — who understand this. But, given that anyone who has the right to live in one EU country has the right to live in all — ie, a Swede is entitled to live in Greece and vice-versa — it’s unlikely that they’ll avoid the destabilising effects of their neighbours.
More to the point, we’re already seeing the start of a continent-wide equivalent of the “white flight” from US cities in the Seventies: the Netherlands is now a net exporter of its own people.
So: you tell me how we get to the happy ending.
Progressive secular welfarism is a great life — but only for a generation or two. After that, it’s a death cult.
All best,
Mark
Comment by Mark Steyn — 2/27/2005 @ 11:21 am
-snip-
http://austinbay.net/blog/index.php?p=96
Banning head scarves was nothing. At some point, some Euros will seek to deport immigrants. They may adopt the tactics of their hero, Arafat, and terrorize Muslims into leaving. Prior to that, though, they will let the Muslims terrorize Jews and conservatives into leaving.
They won't be able to affort to deport. They are not even at replacement rate, population-wise. They'll need to import foreigners to supporter their pensioners.
Liberalism is a death cult. Pro euthanasia, pro fetus murder, anti women having children.
And don't forget, it's pro-Islam, the biggest death cult of them all.
Fascinating. A lot of good comments on that thread. I can see why Steyn was impelled to intervene in the discussion.
however Muslim countries are not the only place to get your immigrants, you have Latin America, Russia, non Muslim African countries, etc and you can put stricter conditions on it
I know Muslims in Sweden were pissed off because Sweden made it a new requirement a few years ago, because of the problems they are having, that all new immigrants and refugee claimants must learn Swedish immediately and have to pass a proficiency test before they get landed status or something like that......I think that is an excellent idea, you are less likely to hide in balkanized Muslim ghettos if you are forced to assimilate....
I remember this Muslim couple, living on the dole as refugees of course, saying it was so unfair and they were thinking of leaving Sweden
and I remember thinking, I think that is Sweden's plan
and excuse me, you think you can get by speaking Swedish in Saudi Arabia??????
"They'll need to import foreigners to supporter their pensioners."
Which will only work until the foreigners achieve political power. As soon as the euro-slami's begin to ask, "Why should we slave away to pay for all these old useless infidels when we have seven children to raise?" the whole charade collapses completely in social chaos and violence.
I grew up in the South and then moved up North. One of the first things that I noticed when I moved was that Blacks in the South seemed much more mellow, while Northern Blacks seemed much angrier. My theory is that Blacks were meant to live in a warm climate and the cold weather makes them irritable. I can't help thinking the same thing about Arabs who move to Northern Europe. The cold weather is making them more radical. We have a better chance with the Arabs who still live in the Mideast.
There are two ways you could deal with this — either reform of the welfare states or massive immigration higher than America at its pre-World War One immigration peak.
Europe's Way Forward
By Johnny Munkhammar Published 02/24/2005
http://www.techcentralstation.be/022405A.html
Everyone talks about the need for economic growth. It is a top priority for the Barroso Commission. But does any leading politician realize what changes need to be made? We have to move rapidly away from the European social model. Does any Western European leader have the boldness needed for this kind of sweeping reform?
The European social model, with high taxes and big public spending, is not the solution to our problems of low growth and declining living standards. On the contrary, it is the main cause of our problems. Yet the much-ballyhooed report written by former Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok, "Facing the Challenge", states that we are not only going to keep it, but that keeping it is the main aim of the reforms. "To achieve the goals of higher growth and increased employment in order to sustain Europe's social model [my italics], will require powerful, committed and convincing political leadership."
That is impossible. We can no longer hide from the problems or avoid the challenge. For as the Kok Report also states, somewhat more wisely: "Time is running out and there can be no room for complacency".
Unfortunately the report just scratches the surface of the system. The main problem is that the average Western European tax pressure rose from 20-25 percent in the 1950s to 40-50 percent in the 1980s. Government became an ever larger part of society. This is a heavy burden on all productive forces.
(snip)
Or Hitler's: force out the members of the "bad" religion and immigrants, and increase the socialization of the state.
"Bork bork falafel bork!"
--Swedish Chef in Saudi Arabia
There is nothing particularly wrong with a declining or stable population. I think it is natural that we will eventually have a stable population.
What we have seen the world over is that as women become educated, enter the workforce, have access to birth control pills, the birth rate falls to 2.0 or 1.9 per woman. That is the stable or declining population level birthrate.
Even in countries where the economy isn't do so well and women don't have any rights, the birth rate has been falling.
The exception has been Muslim countries. The Middle East in particular still has a 6.0 to 8.0 birth rate per woman. This is clearly directly related to Islam and the lack of power that women have. If they are exporting that attitude and culture to their new homes in Europe, It won't be long before Muslims become the majority. You just need to look at the school population to see what will happen.
Europe needs to free Muslim women from the tyrrany of Islam. They need to do away with the scarf (like France did) and start allowing women to choose their own husbands. They need to educate them and let them enter the workforce and they need to crack down on Imams who are continuing to propagate the women have no rights part of Islam.
The birthrates will then stabilize at the modern norm of 2.0 per woman in short order and Europe will not have to fear being overrun by Islam.
bttt
That's a rather ambitious extrapolation, right now Muslims are about two percent of the population.
I don't know how that compares to the Jews and Gypsies and etc. that Hitler terrorized.
(Denny Crane: "There are two places to find the truth. First God and then Fox News.")
Thus reducing the resources available for families to raise children, and driving women, willing or no, into the work force.
The stupid socialist Europeans killed their nations through their own harebrained social welfare schemes. They loved government more than they loved their own families, and they will soon pay a very high price. Their grandchildren will beg on their knees to be admitted to America as refugees.
-ccm
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