Posted on 10/26/2004 11:15:34 AM PDT by RWR8189
October 26, 2004--Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters made their final decision on their Presidential vote before the fall campaign season began. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 12% decided about a month ago, 9% a week ago, and 5% in the past few days.
Those who made up their mind earlier in the process tend to be more supportive of Senator Kerry. Those who made up their mind later in the process are more supportive of the President. This is consistent with the fact that Senator Kerry led in most polls through mid-August and has generally trailed since Labor Day and the Republican National Convention.
Among voters who made up their minds in the Spring of 2004 or sooner, Kerry is favored by a 51% to 48% margin. The candidates are essentially tied among those who made up their minds during the summer. However, those who decided in the past month favor President Bush by a 57% to 38% margin.
Our sample included 136 Likely Voters who made up their mind over the last week. These voters also appear to be breaking in the President's direction but the small sample size prevents any definitive assessment.
There are very few undecided voters today. Those who have recently made their final decision are most likely firming up a choice for the candidate they have been leaning towards for some period of time.
At the moment, 93% of Bush voters are certain they won't change their mind and 89% of Kerry voters say the same. Our daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows that just 2% of voters remain undecided at this time (many of whom may not vote).
The best of all possible worlds on Nov. 3: Bush/CHeney win a landslide; Daschle loses; The NYT and CBS are thoroughly discredited by their blatant partisanship; and Zogby has to find legitimate employment.
That's what I'm hoping for. A few dems around here I think have come to that realization before getting to the booth. But they hate to admit it. So maybe they are telling the pollsters what they think they want to happen, but know it won't.
Bush is the challenger...everyone knows that Gore won the last election....right?
Makes sense. I've read a number of people theorize that many watched the debates not so much to gauge John Kerry but to reassess George Bush.
His ability to, overall, do well in the debates *and* talk about a forward-looking agenda served him well, mainly by allowing undecideds to feel "comfortable" with re-electing him.
Works for me.
The best of all possible worlds on Nov. 3: Bush/CHeney win a landslide; Daschle loses; The NYT and CBS are thoroughly discredited by their blatant partisanship; and Zogby has to find legitimate employment.
Go W!
Remember John Zogby is a Democrat hack. His brother was (and I think still is) working for the DNC. His polls are garbage up until the eve of the election (that is when you pay attention).
I believe he was closest during the 2000 election because he knew (from his brother) the amount of vote fraud the Dems would have.
Wait until its all over. It will be 2 to 1 by then.
Considering the accuracy of most polls, I am prepared to say you are within the margin of error at 57% to 38% (versus 60 to 30).
I tend to believe Dick Morris, who says this could be an extremely high turnout year, and pollsters are just guessing about who will vote and who won't.
Pray for W and Our Troops
lastnight on Greta, Jerry Falwell said that for the last six months, he's been involved in voter registration at over 1,000 (or did he say 2,000) churches... this is not something that has been talked about in the news... it's only the Dem voter registration that they are talking about... wasn't Dr. Dobson doing the same? Jerry Falwell believes the Christian vote is going to turn out even stronger than in 1994... it was not strong in 2000... i believe this is what the media is missing...
Can you cite a previous example of the total number of voters jumping by 10-15%?
Year Turnout
1924 48.9%
1928 51.8%
1932 52.6%
1936 56.8%
1940 58.8%
1944 56.1%
1948 51.1%
1952 61.6%
1956 59.4%
1960 62.8%
1964 61.9%
1968 60.9%
1972 55.2%
1976 53.5%
1980 52.6%
1984 53.1%
1988 50.1%
1992 55.2%
1996 49.0%
2000 51.0%
1952? Stevenson vs IKE?
Good call. 1920 is another example. But 1952 followed two years 1944 and 1948 with low turnout. Kind of similar to 1992 following the absolute drop in voters in 1988.
However, in 2000, the number of voters went up 9 million from 1996, a nearly 9% increase, after the drop from 1992 to 1996. Its hard to believe we will now see 16 million new voters on top of that like some are saying.
I'm betting on 110 million.
BTW, do you think Illinois is any better on the ground than the 8% deficit in the last poll?
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