Bush's lead starts edging up post-debate - Rasmussen

Rasmussen ^ | 10/02/2004 | Rasmussen

[motife]

Presidential Tracking Poll: Bush-Kerry

Updated Daily by Noon 10/02/2004 Eastern Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 48.6%

Kerry 45.6%

Other 2.1%

Not Sure 3.7%

RasmussenReports.com

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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Saturday October 02, 2004--The latest Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 49% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%.

These results are based upon a survey of 3,000 Likely Voters conducted Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday night. As a result, just over one-third of the interviews were conducted following Thursday night's Presidential Debate. Results from last night's sample were similar to the preceding nights. Monday's update will be the first based entirely upon post-debate interviews.

In last night's sample, 6% of voters say they changed their minds following the debate. This includes 3% who are now voting for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and 1% who are now undecided.

The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the President ahead 213-169. Rasmussen Reports has recently released state election polls for Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, West Virginia, Washington, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Additional state election polls will be released at 5:00 p.m. Eastern today. The Electoral College projection will be updated if appropriate.

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

"I don't recall Ras' previous electoral numbers... is that an improvement?"

I'm sure it is BUT have no previous numbers.

[Enlightiator]

Hmmm... Rasmussen... Newsweek... Rasmussen... Newsweek. Who's right?

This explains Newsweeks big and bogus "jump" for Kerry:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1233524/posts?page=522#522

[ozzymandus]

Would you believe anything in a magazine that employs jonathan alter and elanor rodham clift? I subscribe to newsweak just to get an idea what the lefties are trying to sell to the public.

[bvw]

Bush won. Big Time.

Kerry won the debate club debate. But life ain't a friggin debate club, and Bush won in the Jury Rooms -- the living rooms, dining rooms and backyards -- of America -- not ONE person in America who watched that debate would rather have Kerry as boss or co-worker than Bush. And I've asked every one.

If you didn't get the call from me. Tough. You must be a illegal Venusian.

[Flamenco Lady]

Even if you don't put NB in the bush column 291 to 246 would still win if for President Bush!

[SunkenCiv]

October 2

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[Flamenco Lady]

Sorry, I can't type today. NB=NM

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

The 213 Electoral Votes projected for Bush matches his highest total of the year. He has been at this level since the Republican National Convention.

For Kerry, the total of 169 Electoral Votes is his lowest total of Election 2004.

[krghou]

Can't say the trend on the Iowa Electronic Markets looks very good.

[dagnabbit]

Bush needs a good angle with which to press the difference between him and JK on gay marriage. Nothing "mean" to scare away soccer moms, but there should be soundbites enough to make that issue the biggest of the evening. Everyone in America should come away from the debate knowing that a Kerry administration will usher in nationwide gay marriage.

Other points Bush should turn to are the end of capital punishment under a Kerry White House, as well as Kerry's opposition to fetal homicide legislation (Lacy and Connor act or whatever it's called). Sticking to those hot-buuton issues will help paint JK as the leftist he really is.

What Bush needs to avoid at all costs is some sort of "battle of benefits", ie, an evening devoted to the candidates detailing in spoken mulit-part paragraphs, what kind of goodies they'll give under the tax code, social security, prescription drug coverage, etc. No way Bush will win that - either on substance or style.

The "takeaway" for the evening has to be that Kerry will allow gay marriage nationwide.

[counterpunch]

Well Kerry did gain a point more than Bush, and 1% said they are now undecided. It would be interesting to know who lost those votes.

While the change is fairly insignificant, the fact remains that Bush should have destroyed Kerry, if only he had made an attempt. Because Kerry's own base is divided on the issue of Iraq, he should have lost 30% of his support had Bush confronted him on it. He should responded to Kerry's attacks and pointed out that Kerry has no plan. Kerry got away with claiming that Bush was the one with no plan while stealing Bush's plan as his own. It is absolutely unforgivable that Bush allowed him to get away with this unchallenged.

Bush just cannot be trusted to defend his own policies, which is a shame since they are the correct ones. He also cannot be trusted to make a case for why Kerry's policies -- such as giving nuclear fuel to Iran -- are so dangerous to America. Once again, this is unforgivable.

People have debated back and forth whether Bush was over-prepared or under-prepared. I'd say it was both. He was over-prepared on rhetoric and under-prepared on facts and figures. He went through his usual emotionally based applause lines mechanically, without laying out a foundation of facts and figures first. This was his chance to defend his record and lay out his plan for the future of Iraq in front of a great many people who haven't heard it before, but he approached it like it had all already been said. He talked like he was speaking to the already converted, when this was his chance to do some converting.

Kerry did everything right. He used facts and figures, and spoke in a way to make his case. Granted, Kerry distorted his facts and figures, and he made a good sales pitch for bad policies, but Bush did not even attempt to point that out. That is all it would have taken for him to have decisively won, and we'd be looking at very different polling data today if he had. Rather than gloating about the damage being insignificant, we'd be gloating about the damage to Kerry being devastating.

[Clara Lou]

That's exactly what I was referring to. I'd always assumed that Rasmussen was generally more reliable. I see from a post above on the internals that Newsweek influenced their outcome.

[68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub]

Bush spoke from the heart to the heartland.

Kerry spoke from the snobs to the snobs.

[garjog]

"this shyster is a smooth slick talking traitor."

This guy flew an upside down flag on the cover of his book; gave sworn testimony mouthing enemy propaganda while our soldiers were being tortured; toss his medals away; voted to cut the military at every turn; is pro-abortion yet claims to be Catholic; voted against the defense of marriage act; trashes our allies when their men are fighting with us; cravenly switches his positions to gain political advantage; uses the f word in published interviews and is more liberal than Teddy K.

HIS ELECTION WOULD BE A DISASTER.

[Smartass]

THANKS FOR THE PING!


Proud to be part of the Vast Right Wing Blogosphere  

[Uncle Hal]

Your right. There is no way Kerry leads Bush among men by 2 points. This a bogus poll.

[SunkenCiv]

Sorry, this was the one I meant to use as a reply.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Perspectives%20on%20Iraq%20Sept%2026.htm

Interesting...

"Fifty-two percent (52%) of Americans say that the War with Iraq is part of the broader War on Terror. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 41% take the opposite view and believe that it is a diversion from the Terror War.

Forty-six percent (46%) believe that establishing a free and peaceful Iraq is more important than capturing Osama bin Laden. Forty percent (40%) believe capturing bin Laden is more important."

[Linda Sandoval]

Rasmussen today says:

Six percent (6%) of voters say the debate changed their mind about how they will vote this November. This includes 3% who now say they will vote for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and 1% who are now undecided.

One interesting twist is that 64% of Kerry voters now say that Presidential Debates are very important. However, only 23% of Bush voters share that view.

[plushaye]

Here's something interesting via Powerlineblog via the Minneapolis Star Tribune:

"Gallup's polling shows that "winning" a debate doesn't inexorably lead to a win on Election Day. Except for Clinton in 1996, in the past five elections, the winner of the first debate went on to LOSE in November."

[Gucho]

"This guy flew an upside down flag on the cover of his book; gave sworn testimony mouthing enemy propaganda while our soldiers were being tortured; toss his medals away; voted to cut the military at every turn; is pro-abortion yet claims to be Catholic; voted against the defense of marriage act; trashes our allies when their men are fighting with us; cravenly switches his positions to gain political advantage; uses the f word in published interviews and is more liberal than Teddy K."

Exactly - and it blows my mind that this TRAITOR is running for President of the United States. (amazing)